Monday Nov.09, 2020

🏨 Marriott's shocking pandemic profit

_When you find out there's no more mini shampoo to steal_
_When you find out there's no more mini shampoo to steal_

Hey Snackers,

The US woke up Saturday with a new president-elect, only four days after Election Day. It was the highest voter turnout in 120 years — Nevada's just glad the memes are over.

Stocks soared big over the work week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index gained 9% since a divided Congress makes Big Tech reform unlikely.

On the pod: Because Amazon hasn't done enough, it just launched "Explore" for virtual experiences. We're getting hardcore "Airbnb Experiences" vibes.

Shampoo

Marriott turns a surprise profit despite near-empty hotels (it's a budgeting pro)

Refilling the minibar Fiji bottles... with sink water. Marriott miraculously turned a profit last quarter by being extra thrifty. It's the world’s largest hotel operator with over 7K properties across 130+ countries — usually something to brag about, not so much during a world-halting pandemic. Room occupancy went the way of the "wake up call" (near-extinct):

  • Just over a third of rooms in North America were booked. European Marriotts were even emptier, at just 1 in 5. BTW: Marriott also owns The Ritz, W, and Sheraton.
  • RevPAR: A metric hotel people are obsessed with. It's the average daily room price multiplied by occupancy rate. Marriot's fell nearly 70% from last year. And yet somehow...
  • Marriott checked in a $100M profit from July to September, compared to a $230M loss in the previous quarter.

Continental Breakfast = 1 Eggo waffle... Hilton and Hyatt had similar RevPAR plunges as Marriott, but they posted losses. How? Travel demand improved a bit from the previous quarter (especially in China), but it's really about cost-slashing...

  • Marriott cut costs by 57% — that's almost exactly the same percentage that total sales fell from last year. Marriot made 57% less, but spent 57.2% less. That 0.2% extra = profit.

Budgeting is a skill... that can be used to make the best of worst-case scenarios. Marriott has fixed costs like rent and insurance (just like us) — but it showed budgeting prowess by precisely cutting everywhere it could to turn a profit. Sadly, that included tens of thousands of furloughs in March and corporate layoffs in October.

Highs

Who's up...

Saved by the ballot... Gig driving companies scored big after California voters passed Prop 22, exempting them from CA's AB5 law. Uber and Lyft stock soared more than 30% for the week, since they won't have to reclassify drivers as employees (think: healthcare, PTO). Also exempted: DoorDash, Postmates, and Instacart. AB5 would've made hiring drivers more expensive, making these chronically unprofitable apps lose even more money.

Drunk ordered a couch... from the couch. Millennial furniture favorite Wayfair just proved that the pandemic "House Hype" is still strong. Quarterly sales shot up 67%, and Wayfair even made a comfy profit (after losing ~$300M during the same three months last year). It's using techy data to find out what's most popular, then crank out 10,000 versions of it. The stock popped 21% for the week, and has more than 3X'd this year.

Lows

...and who's down

Missing the movie magic... AMC is desperate for a happy ending. The world’s largest movie theater chain lost nearly $1B last quarter. Sales plunged 91% from last year as theaters were shut for most of the quarter. Now 80% of its US theaters are open, but limited capacity and blockbuster delays are choking sales. The cash-starved chain is looking to raise up to $50M by selling 20M shares to stave off bankruptcy. Happy ending = survival.

Surprise squashing... Chinese fintech giant Ant Group was supposed to go public last week in the world's biggest IPO. Its mega-app Alipay has over 1B users and offers every money-related service imaginable. Problem? Ant's founder Jack Ma made a (poorly-timed) speech criticizing China for stifling innovation. Chinese regulators squashed the historic IPO just two days before it was scheduled. Ma's other company Alibaba — aka: the "Amazon of China" — owns 33% of Ant, so the stock dropped on the news.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Sweat: What a brief jog can do for your brain — just 15 minutes can make a big difference in your mood.
  • Reset: 3 ways to carve out "me time" when work never ends. Conscious breaks are more satisfying than reactive breaks.
  • Act: Four anti-racist choices corporate America can make right now.
  • Work: 9 side hustles to keep your wallet a little warmer this winter.
  • Think: How to worry mindfully — free yourself from mental multitasking and schedule "worry appointments."
  • Watch: 20 travel movies that will transport you across the world, courtesy of Couch Airlines.

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This Week

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Uber, Disney, and Apple

ID: 1403957

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Latest Stories

Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

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Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.

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Stock market gains for 2024 cut by more than half

All of the sudden, the stock market seems to be running out of steam.

There’s no big mystery here. War in the Mideast has pushed up oil prices, which will help keep inflation elevated. And annoyingly high price increases in March have already pushed the June Fed rate cuts the market was banking on farther into the uncertain future.

All that’s added up to higher interest rates and lower stock prices.

Tech
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AI needs so much electricity that tech companies are getting into the energy business

To accommodate tech companies’ pivots to artificial intelligence, tech companies are increasingly investing in ways to power AI’s immense electricity needs.

Most recently, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman invested in Exowatt, a company using solar power to feed data centers, according to the Wall Street Journal.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

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