Wednesday Nov.24, 2021

❤️‍🔥 Match’s new matchmaking

A match made on Match [Stephen Zeigler/DigitalVision via Getty Images]
A match made on Match [Stephen Zeigler/DigitalVision via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

In a research poll that surprises no one, Pew found that the top 25% most active Twitter users produce 97% of all tweets.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched small gains today after last week’s initial jobless claims hit a 50-year low and Treasury yields — which jumped after President Biden said he’d renominate Jerome Powell as Fed chair — began to cool. The Dow closed down slightly.

BTW: The stock market is closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving. We'll be back in your inbox on Monday with digestible news (after we’ve all digested our T-giving meals). We’re grateful you Snack with us each day.

Swiped

Tinder owner Match expands to human matchmaking to fight swipe fatigue

“Voice Prompts” on Hinge… slightly cringe. Dating giant Match Group owns Tinder, Hinge, OKCupid, and 20+ other e-romance businesses. Algorithms rule the world, from suggesting your Spotify tunes to hooking you on TikTok. Match has long used algorithms to surface eligible singles who also love Nirvana and vegan sushi. Now its techy selection process is getting a human edge:

  • Matchmakers: For $5/week, Match.com users can lean on human dating coaches to handpick two top candidates based on their answers to four personal questions.
  • Match said it created the feature because, for some singles, the pandemic added urgency to find a serious relationship.

#CuffingSeason… During the pandemic, couch-bound singles flocked to dating apps for (virtual) company. Bumble video-chat usage soared 93% after a national emergency was declared, and Match added features to its apps — think free video calls, virtual trivia nights, and Insta-like social feeds. But the real money is in paid subscriptions like Tinder Gold and perks like unlimited swipes. Case in point: Tinder is the #1 grossing lifestyle app worldwide, with a record 10.4M “payers” last quarter. Human matchmaking could be apps’ next premium perk.

There are too many fish in the sea… Algorithms have enabled personalized experiences on a broad scale. For a low cost (or for free) tailored music, entertainment, and even people can be surfaced to us via apps. Now the differentiators are curation and quality. Human curation is more expensive, but it increases the IRL connection that many crave in an algo-driven world. That could become a competitive advantage for apps like Match.

DPF

Zoom shares plunge on slowing growth, as the “DPF effect” sets in

What Zooms in must Zoom out… The Zoom boom may be over. On Monday, the company reported slightly better than expected earnings — but revenue growth slowed for the third consecutive quarter. Zoom’s quarterly sales grew just 35% from last year, compared to 10X faster growth a year ago. Shares slid 15% yesterday, dropping Zoom’s market cap to a third of its pandemic peak. Now Zoom’s focused on two things:

  • Corporate customers: The number of Zoom customers who spend $100K+ annually nearly doubled last quarter from last year, to 2.5K.
  • New offerings: Zoom is exploring growth opportunities, like licensing its video tech to other apps and letting people host paid events (think: Zumba class).

Zoomed in too far… Zoom’s growth didn’t just slow from pandemic highs: It had its slowest quarter since 2018. Other pandemic thrivers also experienced the “DPF effect” — demand pulled forward. Demand boomed all at once early in the pandemic (aka was “pulled forward”), then slowed as new customers dwindled. The stock market’s up 26% this year, but some WFH winners are seeing slowdown-driven selloffs:

  • Peloton shares are down 71% this year, after Equinox and SoulCycle reopened. Sales grew 6% last quarter compared to 232% in the same quarter last year.
  • Online education company Chegg’s shares are also down 71% this year as schools resume and subscription saturation intensifies (#subscripturation).
  • Pinterest shares are down 39% this year since everyone’s already created too many kitchen inspo moodboards.
  • Netflix added only 4.4M subscribers last quarter, and lost 400K subscribers in North America, after adding a whopping 36M subs worldwide last year.

Some pandemic habits could stick… But Zoom could still lose to the conference room. People who flocked to Zoom, Peloton, and Chegg are returning to offices, gyms, and schools — and growth is slowing. But not everyone is experiencing subscripturation: DocuSign’s subscription revenue grew faster last quarter than a year earlier, because people who started signing digitally aren’t returning to physical paperwork.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Slick: The US and several non-OPEC partners tapped into national oil reserves to bring down high gas prices, but some experts say it still won’t be enough.
  • Pills: Walgreens, Walmart, and CVS were found liable for creating a “public nuisance” in two Ohio counties by enabling the opioid crisis.
  • Hoodie: Gap and Nordstrom shares plunged after the retailers disappointed on earnings and said they expected supply issues to cut into holiday profits.
  • Hacky: Apple sued NSO Group, an Israeli company that makes a software that enables governments to hack into iPhones, offering a warning to other spyware sellers.
  • Heat: Olympic sponsors like Coke and Airbnb face pressure to support tennis star Peng Shuai, whose location is unknown after she accused a former Chinese official of sexual assault.
  • Deliver: FedEx, UPS, and USPS said holiday-shipping clogs wouldn’t be too bad thanks to added capacity, noting that last year’s bottlenecks were 6X worse.

Wednesday

  • Earnings expected from: John Deere and Cracker Barrel

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Match Group, CVS, Apple, General Motors, Netflix, Tesla, Walmart, Spotify

ID: 1934651

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.