Thursday May.13, 2021

🦄 SoftBank's (Google-status) profit

_SoftBank's unicorns emerging from the valley [Helen Alderton/Moment via GettyImages]_
_SoftBank's unicorns emerging from the valley [Helen Alderton/Moment via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

TikTok is reportedly testing a LinkedIn-esque job service for Gen Z. Core competencies include slaying the Renegade dance challenge.

Stocks posted their biggest three-day drops in nearly seven months, as investors continue to stress about inflation. Consumer prices jumped 4.2% in April, the biggest year-over-year increase since 2008.

Boom

SoftBank's profit hits a national record, thanks to IPO-Palooza (but it's not cashing in)

Started from the valley, now we here... SoftBank is the Japanese tech and telecom investment giant behind companies like Uber and Alibaba. A year ago, SoftBank posted a record-shattering $18B loss for its techy Vision Fund, as the value of its Uber and WeWork stakes plunged. SB's precious unicorns were (literally) falling into the "Valley of Coronavirus" (see: slide 50). Now...

  • Softbank posted a record $46B profit for its 2020 fiscal year, the highest ever for a Japanese company.
  • That's double the previous record set by Toyota — and $5B more than Google's 2020 profit. Whoa.

“Producer of Golden Eggs”... how SoftBank describes itself in its iconic decks. During IPO-Palooza, a few of SoftBank's biggest fund unicorns made splashy public debuts. As their valuations soared, so did SoftBank's investment gains (at least, on paper). As of March, its $100B Vision Fund had racked up $57B in gains — 84% of which were unrealized (SoftBank didn't sell its shares).

  • Coupang (aka: the Amazon of South Korea) had the biggest US IPO of the year in March. SoftBank gained $24B from its 40% stake in the ecomm giant, which just reported strong quarterly sales.
  • DoorDash, now SoftBank's third-largest Vision Fund winner, had a monster December debut. It started trading at nearly double its IPO price (but has fallen since).

SoftBank is going long... on tech (see: 300-year plan). Instead of selling shares, SoftBank is holding... and adding. Despite recent shakiness in the market, SoftBank is doubling down on tech investments — and shifting away from telecom. It tripled the amount of capital it has pledged to its second techy Vision Fund (which includes Cameo and Didi Grocery). Meanwhile, SoftBank has sold billions worth of T-Mobile and Sprint shares.

Partay

Party City stock soars as Zoom celebrations decline (and its balloon-obsession grows)

The Walmart of matching paper cups... and throw in some Baby Yoda napkins. Your #1 destination for birthdays, Mardi Gras parties, and last-minute Halloween costumes has survived the Zoom celebration era — and it's not just scraping by.

  • Party City stock has soared 20% this week on expectation-beating earnings. January to March sales jumped 3% from 2020, and it's even projecting a profit this quarter.
  • Revenge Celebrations: As the vax rollout continues and the economy reopens, more people are ready to "revenge" spend, travel, and celebrate... in person. Party City = epitome of the Revenge Economy.

Don't pop it... Party City has one important goal that's critical to its growth strategy: "win in balloons." After surviving the helium shortage of 2019, PC became obsessed with balloons "as a key driver of our differentiated brand experience."

  • Happy 30th: PC brought "innovation" to its balloon biz, launching online-ordering, curbside pickup, and delivery of "balloon bouquets." Think: Insta-worthy birthday creations (your age is floating).
  • Happy Anything: With reopenings picking up, Americans are eager to celebrate. And PC believes there's no shindig without helium-filled plastic.

Party City found a product to cure "seasonality"... For many companies, sales fluctuate predictably around the same time(s) each year. Think: boosted retail sales during Christmas (@CanadaGoose), and spiked seltzer sales in the summer. Party City is prioritizing balloons because they can be sold for all occasions (unlike Halloween costumes and July 4th decorations). Party is turning its stores into helium hubs because it wants to celebrate all year round — from the grad party, to the random reunion brunch.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Vax: The CDC recommended Pfizer and BioNTech's Covid vaccine for 12- to 15-year-olds, expanding the rollout campaign.
  • Greenlon: Elon Musk said Tesla will stop accepting Bitcoin for car purchases, citing carbon emission concerns.
  • Gas: President Biden signed an exec order to strengthen US cybersecurity post-Colonial Pipeline hack (BTW: it restarted operations yesterday).
  • Success: Bumble crushed quarterly earnings expectations. Sales more than doubled, and it posted a profit (compared to a loss in 2020).
  • Again: Facebook is revamping its digital currency project "Diem" (FKA: Libra), to address regulators' money-laundering concerns.

Thursday

  • Earnings expected from Disney, Airbnb, DoorDash, Coinbase, Rakuten, and Alibaba
  • Weekly jobless claims

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Tesla

ID: 1646968

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Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

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Tech

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.

2024-04-22-1-america-importing-less-from-china

The US now buys more goods from Mexico than from China

Chinese imports are down as companies begin to "nearshore" in Mexico

2024-04-22-paramount-global-site

Multiple bidders want to buy Paramount Global’s sprawling media assets

Junk

How much of the world’s plastic is recycled? Only a fraction

Landfills still account for the majority of plastic disposal

Markets

Stock market gains for 2024 cut by more than half

All of the sudden, the stock market seems to be running out of steam.

There’s no big mystery here. War in the Mideast has pushed up oil prices, which will help keep inflation elevated. And annoyingly high price increases in March have already pushed the June Fed rate cuts the market was banking on farther into the uncertain future.

All that’s added up to higher interest rates and lower stock prices.