Tuesday Sep.07, 2021

🥤 The job situation, feat. expiring unemployment $$

_Taking the jobs report out of the oven like [Alan Thornton/The Image Bank via GettyImages]_
_Taking the jobs report out of the oven like [Alan Thornton/The Image Bank via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Labor Day is over, and spooky season has begun. Home Depot sold out of an early drop of Halloween decorations, Starbucks dropped the PSL early this year, and we're already hearing murmurs of a turkey shortage.

Stocks notched new records last week, as tech gains lifted the broader market. The S&P 500 index, which broadly tracks the US stock market, has clinched 50+ fresh highs in 2021.

Labor

The bummer August jobs report: from expiring unemployment $$, to Delta’s dent

Check the math again… August job numbers were as disappointing as a Fyre Festival sandwich. The US economy added only 235K jobs, the lowest gain since January — economists were expecting 720K new hires. The unemployment rate dipped to 5.2% from 5.4% in July — still higher than pre-pandemic.

  • The labor force participation rate — aka: the percentage of 16+ year olds that are working or actively looking for work — stayed at 61.7%, well below 63.3% pre-pandemic.
  • It’s not that there aren’t enough jobs. There are record high ~10M US job openings. Still, 8.4M Americans are unemployed. A few reasons why workers aren't returning...

1. Covid fears are keeping workers home as Delta surges, especially in customer-facing jobs. Leisure and hospitality jobs (think: waiters), which have been the primary driver of job growth this year, actually lost workers last month.

2. Childcare needs: Delta uncertainty has forced dozens of US school districts to postpone their return to IRL classrooms. That could slow job growth among parents — especially women, who’ve shouldered a larger share of pandemic childcare duties.

3. Boosted unemployment benefits: The extra $300/week in enhanced unemployment benefits are set to expire nationwide this week. Half of US states already cut off boosted payments earlier this summer. And they've seen about the same job growth as states that didn't. It's still too early to know how the nationwide cut-off will affect job growth.

4. Favorable labor market: Jobs are plentiful, and wages are rising faster-than-expected as companies from CVS to Walmart hike pay and benefits to attract workers. People are becoming choosier about jobs they take, which can mean sitting out longer.

It's the Delta jobs report... In August, the number of people who said they couldn't work for a pandemic-related reason jumped by a whopping 400K, for a total of 5.6M. The US is seeing ~150K new Covid cases/day as the Delta variant spreads. It’s raising concerns that economic recovery could stall. The August jobs report could also cloud policy for the Fed, which is weighing when to reign in its economy-boosting policy.

Zoom Out

Stories we're watching...

International lawyers on speed-dial… Data privacy and antitrust troubles are piling up globally for tech giants. Facebook-owned WhatsApp was fined $270M for privacy violations last week as part of Europe’s GDPR crackdown. Meanwhile: South Korea passed the first law in the world that dents Google and Apple's app store payments dominance, setting a precedent other countries could follow.

Corporate thirst… Extreme climate events — like CA’s wildfires and Hurricane Ida — are diminishing global water supply by contaminating reservoirs. The number of people with limited water is expected to more than double by 2025 to 1.8B. Now, companies that use water for everything from making cookies to cooling data centers are making moves: Procter & Gamble is donating money to protect water supplies, and Nestlé plans to conserve more water than it uses by 2025.

Events

Coming up this week...

Love the pleather skirt... Don't love the $300 price tag. The “buy now, pay later” biz is booming, as younger shoppers skip credit cards. BNPL giant Klarna hit a $46B valuation in June, and Square bought Afterpay last month for a whopping $29B. Now, BNPL company Affirm is partnering with Amazon to allow 'Zon shoppers to pay in installments. We’ll see if BNPL’s growth — which took off when money was tight last year — is still strong when Affirm reports earnings on Thursday.

Labor Day BBQ vibes... On the grill: earnings reports. Rival grill-makers Traeger and Weber went public this summer as the pandemic fueled outdoor activities, including a BBQ boom. One in four grills on Earth are Weber's, but Traeger’s sales have been growing faster. Shares of both grill giants are up 20%+ since listing. We’ll see if sales are still sizzling when Traeger serves up earnings on Thursday.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

  • NFTs: From Simone Biles to Shawn Mendes, sports stars and celebs are embracing non-fungible tokens to unlock the next opportunity in the fan economy.
  • Ida: Hurricane Ida is impacting consumers and businesses across industries, from oil and gas to insurance.
  • Drive: Apple is continuing its wallet takeover with a virtual driver’s license — and digital keys are next.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Work: Four rules for identifying your life's work and "finding your marshmallow."
  • Visualize: The highest paid athletes in 2021, from Conor McGregor to Naomi Osaka.
  • Live: How buying time — the right way — can lead to much greater life satisfaction.
  • Chill: The five-minute habit that will change your day, according to neuroscience.

This Week

  • Tuesday: Earnings expected from UiPath
  • Wednesday: Earnings expected from Lululemon, SentinelOne, GameStop, and Genius Sports
  • Thursday: Weekly jobless claims. Earnings expected from Affirm, Riskified, Traeger, Dave & Buster's, and Zumiez
  • Friday: Earnings expected from Kroger

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Apple, Amazon, Google, Square, CVS, Walmart, and Starbucks

ID: 1827204

Get Your News

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Latest Stories

2024-04-26-alphabet-sankey

Alphabet’s record Q1

Search and Cloud continue to deliver, as Alphabet announces its first-ever dividend

Stork delivery

America’s birth rate keeps dropping

Births in the US, like almost everywhere else, are on the decline

2024-04-26-nestle-new

Nestlé, the world’s largest food company, is struggling

Go Deeper with Market Depth

Nasdaq TotalView powers the need-to-know data serious investors rely on.

Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
World

Tangential remarks

Nicolai Tangen, the CEO who holds the purse strings of Norway’s $1.6 trillion sovereign wealth fund, thinks that his fellow Europeans don’t quite stack up to US employees when it comes to pure hustle, telling the Financial Times in a recent interview that there is a difference in “the general level of ambition” and thatthe Americans just work harder”. 

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked
Power

$2T is the new $1T

Alphabet’s phenomenal earnings yesterday was enough to push the search giant’s market cap beyond $2 trillion, joining the likes of NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft.

Sunset Moonrise in New York City

Air taxi Blade is actually an organ transport business in disguise

How the helicopter fleet quietly became America's biggest airborne ambulance.

Your inbox is ready

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

Business
Rani Molla
4/25/24

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

 Max Holloway and Mark Zuckerberg

Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

Rani Molla4/25/24