Friday Jul.22, 2022

🩺 Amazon’s big health bet

Amazon’s latest stab at healthcare (Thiago Prudencio/Getty Images)
Amazon’s latest stab at healthcare (Thiago Prudencio/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

“Strangers in the Pool” — sounds like a terrible Netflix movie, actually a business idea. Rental platform Swimply wants to be the Airbnb for pools. Don’t forget the sunscreen.

Stocks jumped again yesterday as investors sipped on earnings. The world sighed in relief after Russia resumed gas flows to Europe on schedule. Meanwhile, Europe’s central bank hiked rates for the first time in 11 years to tame ’flation, which is even worse in Europe than in the US.

Disrupt

Amazon buys swanky clinic chain One Medical for $4B in its quest to Prime-ify healthcare

Now available on Prime… colonoscopy appointments. Yesterday, Amazon announced it agreed to buy membership-based healthcare provider One Medical for nearly $4B. It’s the Zon’s third-largest deal ever, after Whole Foods ($14B) and MGM ($9B). One Med, whose stock rose 60%+ yesterday, is a key partner for Amazon as it expands into healthcare:

  • Convenient: One Med offers patients 24/7 virtual and IRL care at its 200 swanky clinics through a sleek app. Think: tele-prescriptions and same-day app-scheduled visits.
  • Subscription: Patients pay $200/year just for membership, on top of normal care costs, which can be paid through insurance or out of pocket.
  • Techy: Amazon wants to leverage One Med’s tech and network of nearly 800K members to “reinvent” healthcare (imagine: Alexa-powered checkups and Prime pill pickup).
  • The Zon’s given few details about how One Med fits into its plans, but said the current CEO will stay in place.

Dr. Alexa just finished med school… but Amazon’s been quietly pushing into healthcare for years. The ecomm giant bought the online pharmacy PillPack for $750M in 2018 and used it to launch its own online pharmacy in 2020 (Prime members get free shipping). In 2019, the Zon launched a telehealth service for employees called Amazon Care. Last year, Amazon Care opened its service to US employers.

Healthcare’s about to get Prime-ified… Amazon’s already disrupted shopping, groceries, and movie streaming. Now it plans to disrupt the convoluted healthcare biz, which it said needs “reinvention.” The Zon tried to launch a healthcare biz called Haven in 2018 with Berkshire Hathaway and JPMorgan, but it flopped because of a lack of healthcare experience, limited reach, and competing interests. This time around, Amazon may be more likely to succeed thanks to One Med’s know-how, streamlined strategy, and roster of 8K+ business clients.

Pay

Companies are paying billions in taxes on record-high exec paychecks — but it’s the tip of the compensation iceberg

Checking Elon’s W-2… Over the past three years, top public companies reported paying $2.1B in taxes to cover executive pay (up more than 4X from 2019). Typically, corporations can deduct worker pay as a business expense when filing their taxes. For decades, companies could write off multimillion-dollar paychecks for high-performing, high-earning execs (and save on taxes). But the 2017 tax overhaul forced companies to pay the 21% corporate tax rate on all paychecks over $1M. Now companies are paying big bills on their execs’ big paydays:

  • Tesla spent $447M on exec pay taxes over three years. Elon’s total comp: $2.1B.
  • Lennar: The homebuilding behemoth racked up a $29M exec pay tax bill last year.
  • Howmet Aerospace: The jet-engine giant has paid $21.5M in exec pay taxes since 2019.

Payday… Corporate tax liabilities haven't stopped exec pay from swelling. Last year, CEOs of S&P 500 companies earned $18.3M in compensation (think: salary, bonuses, stock) on average — 324X more than average workers. And while typical worker pay ticked up 5% (behind inflation), CEO pay jumped 18%.

Paychecks are only part of the payday… About 83% of big CEOs’ comp comes from stock awards. While legislators expect the new tax rule will raise $9.2B in revenue over a decade, not much has been done to address the fact that the wealthy often pay little to no income taxes compared to their net worth. Because while income is taxed, net worth isn't.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Land: American Airlines landed its first profit (sans gov support) since the pandemic started, but delay-plagued fliers aren’t celebrating. Despite high fares, airlines still can't keep up with demand.
  • Blockpain: Crypto exchange Blockchain.com is cutting a quarter of its staff. It’s the latest layoff in an industry-wide downsizing trend, as exchanges like Gemini and Coinbase struggle through crypto winter.
  • Wheel: Baidu, aka: the Google of China, is betting on new robotaxis that come complete (incomplete?) with detachable steering wheels. But the futuristic tech hasn’t yet been approved for public roads.
  • Juicy: Ford pleasantly surprised investors by securing enough battery supplies to churn out 600K electric cars a year by 2023. The auto OG is aiming to produce 2M EVs/year by 2026 (watch out, Tesla).
  • Chipper: Samsung is considering investing $200B into 11 Texas chip plants over the next two decades as US lawmakers eye $50B in subsidies for local chip makers (because: #GlobalChipShortage).

Friday

  • Earnings expected from Verizon, NextEra Energy, and American Express

Authors of this Snacks own shares of Berkshire Hathaway, Amazon, Ford, Google, Netflix, and Tesla

ID: 2307632

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No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

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Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

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Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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