Pump

Oil takes its biggest plunge since 1991 — and the drama is reality-show worthy

Snacks / Monday, March 09, 2020

When you're not blaming coronavirus... blame oil. Oil prices plunged 24% Monday, hitting multi-year lows and notching their worst daily drop since 1991. US prices fell as much as 34% (that won't translate to lower gas prices as fast as we'd all like). The drama starts with OPEC, the powerhouse org of 14 oil-exporting countries:

  • Because of its oil producing dominance, OPEC can change oil prices by cutting/increasing output — in 2018, almost 80% of the world's oil reserves were in OPEC countries.
  • It's led by Saudi Arabia, OPEC's big dog and also the world's largest oil exporter.
  • Since 2017, OPEC and its ally Russia (also a huge oil-producer) have been keeping supply lower to boost prices.

But oil prices have been falling... because coronavirus has dented economic growth globally, causing the world to need less oil. So OPEC proposed a plan this weekend to cut production further in order to keep prices high. Now Russia and Saudi Arabia are the stars of a crude drama, worthy of its own reality show (Oiled and Spoiled? Sassy and Gassy?):

  • Russia said "nah, I'm good" and refused to participate in OPEC's production cuts — it's reportedly doing this to hurt US oil producers (who've been gaining market share) with lower prices for their key product.
  • Saudi wasn't feeling Russia's response, and in a #savage move, jacked up production to increase oil supplies, thereby cutting oil prices.
  • Since Friday's drama, oil stocks have plummeted: Occidental Petroleum sunk 53%, Chevron fell 15%, and Exxon is down 12%.

Terrible time for this beef... Oil demand is already low since coronavirus has slowed travel. Now, Russia and Saudi Arabia are in an oil-pumping contest to see who can drive prices even lower. This hurts the rapidly growing US shale industry (exactly Russia's goal). It's also bringing other sectors down — heavily-invested bank stocks are getting crushed. Long term though, lower oil prices benefit us car-drivers and many businesses.

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