Thursday Jul.23, 2020

💉 Pfizer gets $2B for a 2020 vaccine

_"Operation Two-Sided Marketplace" streaming soon_
_"Operation Two-Sided Marketplace" streaming soon_

Hey Snackers,

The best thing to ever come out of a blown-out tire: Shaq showing up to the rescue. The NBA legend pulled over to assist when he saw a car stranded on the highway, staying with the family until sheriffs arrived. MVP in every sense.

The market ticked up slightly on a big government deal for a COVID vaccine candidate. More on that below.

Vax

Pfizer will get $2B from the US for 100M COVID vaccine doses by 2020

Secure the doses... American big pharma Pfizer and German biotech BioNTech (creative) have been working on four mRNA COVID vaccine candidates. Unlike OG vaccines (which use a weakened virus), mRNA ones teach cells to destroy the virus (hardcore). No mRNA vax has ever been approved for human use, but the US government is clearly optimistic:

  • $1.95B: What the US will pay Pfizer/Bio to make and deliver 100M doses of their vaccine to Americans by the end of 2020 (if it gets approved).
  • 1.3B: The number of doses Pfizer/Bio expect to manufacture by the end of 2021. The 1st small testing round showed promising results. Larger, late-stage tests will take place this month.
  • $0: Americans will get the vaccine at no cost since the government's paying. If the vax wins approval from the FDA, the US gets dibs on the 1st 100M doses (and 500M extras, if necessary).

Putting money on every horse... This big bet in the vaccine race is part of the Trump admin's Operation Warp Speed. Vaccines usually take 6-10 years from development to approval. Remember the Ebola outbreak of 2014? The vaccine was just approved in December. The US is investing in a "portfolio" of vaccines to up the odds that Americans will have at least one ASAP. Other big vax horses the US has funded:

  • NovaVax got $1.6B to achieve 100M US-reserved doses by January.
  • AstraZeneca got $1.2B to produce 300M doses by this fall.
  • Johnson & Johnson got $486M to ramp up production to 300M doses.
  • Moderna got $456M to power production of its mRNA candidate.

There's the scientific challenge, then the ethical one... Once a company gets an approved vaccine, ethical considerations around profits and distribution come into play. AstraZeneca and J&J said they'll sell hundreds of millions of doses at price that just breaks even, aka not seeking a profit. On the other hand, Moderna explicitly said it's planning on profiting. Governments will feel obligated to distribute vaccines to their own citizens first if they're being manufactured domestically. That could mean poorer countries get it later.

Jam

Spotify strikes a deal with Universal Music to make the relationship two-sided

Better have my money... Universal Music Group is the major label that reps Rihanna, T. Swift, and hundreds of other musical A-Listers. For years, Spotify has been coughing up cash to the world's largest record company for the right to stream its artists' tunes. It's a one-sided relationship in which Spotify pays UMG for each song stream.

  • Spotify hasn't been consistently profitable since most of its revenue goes to paying music labels (since they actually own the music being streamed). Case in point: UMG made almost $4B from streaming sales in 2019.
  • But Spotify has some leverage, too... Streaming sales now make up over half of UMG's revenue, and Spotify has around 35% of global streaming market share. So...

Spotify's making it "two-sided"... Spotify just signed UMG onto its "two-sided marketplace." Under the new licensing agreement, UMG could eventually be paying Spotify for marketing, data, and analytics.

  • Right now UMG is just an experimentation partner. Spotify thinks its tools will be valuable enough to hook the label into shelling out big bucks. That's because...
  • Spotify thinks it knows more about your music tastes than anyone: Last year, it intro'd the ability for labels to pay to send targeted push notifications for new music. Universal saw huge success pushing the Weeknd’s “After Hours.”

Spotify isn't embraced as "true tech" because of 1 thing... High marginal costs. the purest software companies pay for engineers and cloud storage, but besides that don't incur much additional cost for each customer they add. It didn't cost Google anything to show 1 more person that CBD oil ad, but it did make Google more money. For Spotify though, the more a song is streamed, the more it has to pay labels. Spotify’s marginal costs make it less profitable, but new revenues like the "two-sided marketplace" help.

Save

Misfits raises $85M to send you "ugly" fruits and veggies

Don't judge a pear by its blotches... Sometimes the imperfections are what make things fruitiful. Misfit Market sells "ugly" or somewhat unfortunate-looking (but still perfectly edible) organic produce. Think: weirdly shaped avocados and dented apples that supermarkets won't sell. It just raised $85M to ship its "Always fresh, sometimes normal" fruit to your door. The value prop:

  • Cheaper than stores: Misfits' funny-looking goods can be up to 40% cheaper than grocery store prices, since stores can't (or won't) sell them.
  • Reduces food waste: According to Misfits, 40% of all produce harvested in the US goes to waste. Misfits and competitors like Imperfect Foods are finding mouths for some of that rejected food.

Expand the niche... Misfits identified a market of people who find value in its mission-driven business model. While many are happy paying for obscene-looking squash to reduce food waste, Misfits wants to expand its biz to a wider audience. To do that, it's increasing its "imperfect" offerings to products like: olive oils with upside-down labels and nut butters with erroneous sell-by dates.

Opportunities are born out of market inefficiencies ... One business’ market inefficiency is another business’ business. Uber went mainstream because the market inefficiency was available cars and available driver time with a need for you to get from A to B. Misfits' ability to grow depends on just how much the inefficiency it is capitalizing on affects consumers.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Electrifying: Tesla has its 4th straight quarterly profit, notching its 1st full profitable year — now it could be included in the S&P 500 index (BTW: the $1B Cybertruck factory is coming to Austin).
  • Eventful: Microsoft reports 13% sales growth while Slack accuses it of anticompetitiveness for bundling Teams with the Office suite.
  • Moway: Fiat Chrysler and Alphabet's Waymo sign an exclusive deal to develop self-driving commercial vehicles.
  • Cocky: NBCUniversal's new streamer Peacock got 1.5M app downloads in its first 6 days (Quibi is jelly).
  • Power: The CEOs of Facebook, Amazon, Google, and Apple will testify at Congress' big antitrust hearing on Monday (grab the popcorn).

🍪 Thanks for Snacking with us! Want to share the Snacks? Invite your friends to sign up here.

Thursday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Microsoft, Spotify, Alphabet, Amazon, and Slack

Correction: In our Eurozone story yesterday, we said "19 of the EU's 17 countries share the Euro as a common currency." We meant: "19 of the EU's 27 countries." 🙄

ID: 1255101

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.