Vax

Pfizer will get $2B from the US for 100M COVID vaccine doses by 2020

Snacks / Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Secure the doses... American big pharma Pfizer and German biotech BioNTech (creative) have been working on four mRNA COVID vaccine candidates. Unlike OG vaccines (which use a weakened virus), mRNA ones teach cells to destroy the virus (hardcore). No mRNA vax has ever been approved for human use, but the US government is clearly optimistic:

  • $1.95B: What the US will pay Pfizer/Bio to make and deliver 100M doses of their vaccine to Americans by the end of 2020 (if it gets approved).
  • 1.3B: The number of doses Pfizer/Bio expect to manufacture by the end of 2021. The 1st small testing round showed promising results. Larger, late-stage tests will take place this month.
  • $0: Americans will get the vaccine at no cost since the government's paying. If the vax wins approval from the FDA, the US gets dibs on the 1st 100M doses (and 500M extras, if necessary).

Putting money on every horse... This big bet in the vaccine race is part of the Trump admin's Operation Warp Speed. Vaccines usually take 6-10 years from development to approval. Remember the Ebola outbreak of 2014? The vaccine was just approved in December. The US is investing in a "portfolio" of vaccines to up the odds that Americans will have at least one ASAP. Other big vax horses the US has funded:

  • NovaVax got $1.6B to achieve 100M US-reserved doses by January.
  • AstraZeneca got $1.2B to produce 300M doses by this fall.
  • Johnson & Johnson got $486M to ramp up production to 300M doses.
  • Moderna got $456M to power production of its mRNA candidate.

There's the scientific challenge, then the ethical one... Once a company gets an approved vaccine, ethical considerations around profits and distribution come into play. AstraZeneca and J&J said they'll sell hundreds of millions of doses at price that just breaks even, aka not seeking a profit. On the other hand, Moderna explicitly said it's planning on profiting. Governments will feel obligated to distribute vaccines to their own citizens first if they're being manufactured domestically. That could mean poorer countries get it later.

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