Thursday Jan.19, 2023

🖼️ AI art gets sued

Michelangelo would never (GraphicaArtis/Getty Images)
Michelangelo would never (GraphicaArtis/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Beware the Netflix side tab: a Canadian accountant was ordered to repay $2.7K to her former employer after productivity-tracking software determined she wasn’t working the number of hours she logged. That Excel sheet isn’t fooling anyone.

The S&P 500 had its worst day in over a month yesterday after hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and news that US retail sales fell sharply in December. On the plus side: investors got more evidence that inflation’s slowing.

GenAI

AI-art lawsuits could set copyright precedents for titans like Microsoft and Stability AI

The AI suits are coming… Generative AI has blown up in the past year, with tools like ChatGPT and Stable Diffusion garnering mainstream headlines. Image generators including OpenAI’s DALL-E and Stability AI’s Stable Diffusion “create” images from text prompts (think: “a neon banana in the style of Vincent van Gogh”). But those AI-art tools are trained on billions of images scraped from the internet, many of which are copyrighted by the artists who created them.

  • Artists sue: This week a group of artists filed a class-action suit against AI-art generators Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt, arguing that the companies “violated the rights of millions of artists” and profited by using copyrighted images to train their AI models. A similar suit was recently filed against Microsoft, GitHub, and OpenAI.
  • Companies too: Also this week, Getty Images sued Stability AI, alleging it “unlawfully copied and processed millions of images protected by copyright” without a Getty license. A study conducted last year concluded that a sizable chunk of Stable Diffusion's data was likely pulled from Getty’s site (partly evidenced by the tool's habit of including the Getty watermark).

It’s a legal gray area… So far there aren’t clear rules around the use of genAI because it’s such a new thing. But it’s growing at lightning speed and is top of mind for companies and artists. In September, Getty Images banned the inclusion of AI-generated images in its database over copyright concerns. But Adobe announced that it would sell images generated by AI tools like DALL-E and Stable Diffusion (so did Shutterstock).

It’s a cart-before-horse scenario… Determining whether AI-art tools violate copyright law could be thorny, but the outcomes of lawsuits will likely set precedents for how to handle such cases. Artists have already started sharing tools for determining whether their work was scraped by AI. Meanwhile, corporations are putting the AI cart before the horse: this week Microsoft announced plans to integrate OpenAI’s generative AI tech into all its products.

Pop

Party City files for bankruptcy as celebratory spend cools, highlighting the chilly side of seasonal retail

Alexa, play “When the Party’s Over”... Halloween icon Party City has filed for bankruptcy. As America’s largest party retailer with 850 stores, PC is a go-to for themed birthdays and last-minute costumes. But the festive chain has racked up $1.7B+ in debt, as everything from higher costs to helium shortages hit its bottom line. It’s lost money for the past three fiscal years, and said it was on track to lose nearly $200M this year. Now:

  • Exchanged: Party City shares have dropped 90%+ over the past year, and last month it said it was at risk of delisting from the New York Stock Exchange because its stock was too low.
  • Spirited away: PC’s struggled to compete with its meme-able rival Spirit Halloween, which uses vacant storefronts to launch its seasonal pop-up shops.

Spooky szn… Party City is only the latest retail casualty, as historically high inflation and rising interest rates scare off consumers. This month, debt-laden Bed Bath & Beyond said it could also file for Chapter 11 as losses pile up. Meanwhile, US retail sales continued to fall last month, posting their biggest monthly drop since 2021 as shoppers cut back on holiday splurges.

Being a retailer is hard… but being a seasonal retailer is even harder. Online shopping is already crushing brick-and-mortar stores. Seasonal businesses that rely on a few holidays for most of their sales have it even tougher. As Americans spend more on essentials like groceries and rent, there’s less cash for balloons and Wednesday Addams wigs. Retailers without regular cash flow could find it even harder to keep the lights on.

DEFI(NE)

Heard on the Block: "wash trading"

❤️ When you like your own social post from many accounts…

Blockchains are designed to let people see what transactions are taking place on a chain. But because crypto's pseudonymous (think: no real names required) one person can be on both sides of a trade. "Wash trading" — or repeatedly buying and selling the same crypto or NFT to yourself — can make it seem as if there's organic trading volume when none may exist. Some investors say wash trading on centralized exchanges could be crypto's next big scandal.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Hard: Microsoft plans to lay off 10K of its 220K+ employees as part of broad cost slashing as tech layoffs intensify. The software giant cut roles last year, too, as sales growth slowed.
  • Pause: Netflix is expected to report its slowest quarterly revenue growth ever today. The streamer’s new ad-supported tier has struggled to lure new subscribers, even with a $7/month price tag.
  • Door: As commercial-property values slide, investors want out: last year some of the biggest investors in US commercial real estate requested to withdraw $20B from funds — the most since the Great Recession.
  • Laundry: US crypto exchange Bitzlato was charged with laundering $700M of illicit money, including for Russia-based ransomware actors. The Treasury Department designated Bitzlato as a primary money-laundering concern.
  • Build: Homebuilder sentiment rose for the first time in a year as mortgage rates cooled. While single-family-home construction is expected to slow from last year’s boom, a rebound could be in the cards.

Thursday

  • Jobless claims
  • Earnings expected from Netflix and Procter & Gamble

Authors of this Snacks own shares of Microsoft

ID: 2687863

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
Business
Rani Molla
4/18/24

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.