Friday Nov.27, 2020

📷 Pinterest does Zoom Experiences

_The economy and the stock market_
_The economy and the stock market_

Hey Snackers,

Don't worry: the snacks we're serving up are just for your mind (we know you're stuffed). Were you able to snag a coveted "small turkey" yesterday?

Stocks ticked down as weekly jobless claims increased more than expected from last week.

Pinning

Pinterest tests virtual events with "class communities" (it's a Zoom-Airbnb mashup)

First "Story Pins"... now this. Pinterest wants to be more than just an inspo board for your French chateau-style dream kitchen. It launched a Stories feature in September, copy-catting Snapchat (then again... who hasn't?). Now, it's getting into online events:

  • Pinterest is testing a new feature that lets people sign up for Zoom classes. It was discovered by reverse engineering pro Jane Manchun Wong (legend).
  • Creators can reportedly use "class boards" to organize course materials and chat with attendees. Think: latte art designs and mindfulness meditation how-tos.

A pandemic pinner... is a pandemic winner. E-learning isn't totally new territory for Pinterest. Since lockdowns hit, teachers have used it to organize remote learning resources, from lesson plans to activities. Wild stat: during a single weekend in March, Pinterest saw more global searches and saves than ever in its history. And it's still #pinning:

  • Pinterest's sales jumped 58% last quarter, and users grew 37% to 442M.
  • Pinterest stock has more than tripled in value this year.

Tech is taking over "Experiences"... From virtually rolling pasta with an Italian grandma to meditating with Buddhist monks from your couch — tech companies are uniquely poised to quench our pandemic thirst to do something. Airbnb has doubled down on the virtual "Experiences" side of its biz, and even managed to turn a profit last quarter. Amazon launched a copycat digital experiences product called "Amazon Explore" in September. And MasterClass raised $100M in May on the success of its virtual "Edu-tainment."

30K

The Dow hits 30K for the first time ever — we're talking stock market vs. economy

DowThirtyThow... On Tuesday, the Dow index surged above the 30K milestone for the 1st time. That's a nice glow-up from March, when it was trading below 19K.

  • The Dow is a super exclusive club with fewer members than your Econ discussion group — it's made up of 30 big, publicly-traded US companies.
  • "Blue-chip" status: Dow companies generally have long, profitable track records — aka: excellent reputations. Microsoft, Nike, and Walmart are members.

Not the only record-breaker... Stocks took a major plunge into the valley of the coronavirus back in March, but now the three major indexes are at record highs. Promising vaccine news, less political uncertainty, and renewed hopes for a second stimulus have all boosted the rally.

  • The Dow is up 2% from its pre-pandemic record high.
  • The S&P 500 is up 9% from its pre-pandemic high.
  • The tech-heavy Nasdaq is up a whopping 33% from its pre-pandemic record.

The stock market doesn't always mirror the economy... especially not the corona-conomy. While the unemployment rate is declining, more than 11M Americans are still unemployed. Last week, jobless claims posted their first back-to-back increases since July. Also: Americans' incomes and savings fell last month, and consumer confidence slipped more than expected this month.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • DM: Salesforce is in advanced talks to buy Slack, according to people familiar with the matter (#PFWTM).
  • Sad: Disney plans to lay off 32K more employees by March, mostly in its theme-park division (the hardest hit).
  • Ludicrous: Tesla recalls 9.5K Model X and Model Y cars over potentially faulty roofs and bolts.
  • Bookworm: ViacomCBS is selling its publishing company Simon & Schuster to Penguin Random House for over $2B.
  • Dashed: DoorDash reaches a $2.5M settlement over claims it misled users on driver tips.
  • Crunched: FedEx and UPS are experiencing delivery van shortages on the holiday package frenzy.

🍪 Thanks for Snacking with us! Want to share the Snacks? Invite your friends to sign up here.

Friday

  • Black Friday
  • Consumer sentiment index

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Amazon and Tesla

ID: 1428147

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.