Friday Jan.13, 2023

💵 The funding gap

Breaking out of the 9-to-5 (MoMo Productions/Getty Images)
Breaking out of the 9-to-5 (MoMo Productions/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

US markets will be closed on Monday to honor the legacy and dream of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. It’s an especially good time to celebrate his devotion to equality, nonviolence, and unity.

Stocks ticked up yesterday after the CPI report showed inflation cooling for the sixth straight month (as expected). Notably, consumer prices had their largest month-over-month decrease since April 2020. Next up: investors have eyes on big-bank earnings.

Venture

Black women are America’s fastest-growing group of entrepreneurs, but funding challenges are hampering growth

Quitting the 9-to-5… to be your own boss. Black Americans are more likely to start businesses than any other group, and women of color start businesses at 4.5X the rate of the overall population (as of 2021, white men comprised the minority of business owners). As the US’s fastest-growing group of entrepreneurs, Black women are increasingly leaving corporate roles to launch their own companies. A few factors boosting this trend:

  • Discrimination: Many are worn down by the effects of implicit or explicit bias in corporate America. Nearly half of job seekers say they feel discriminated against during the hiring process, and 55% continue to experience discrimination after getting the job.

  • Job losses: Black women were the most affected by pandemic-related job losses. In 2020, the labor-force participation rate of Black women dropped sharply and is expected to keep falling, though it’s still higher than the rate for white women.

  • FYI: Diverse companies tend to outperform more homogenous orgs, both in profits and in innovation. For companies, losing Black female employees is a worrying trend.

Mind the gap… While the rate of Black entrepreneurship is high, bias and funding gaps pose roadblocks to growth. As of January 2022, just 4% of Black businesses were still open after 3.5 years, compared to the national average of 55%. Fewer than half of Black businesses were considered healthy before the pandemic, versus 73% for white-owned businesses. Lack of capital is a major factor hampering growth for Black businesses.

Closing the gap is key to unlocking growth… Loans and venture capital are critical to business growth, but Black startups (especially those run by women) tend to have less access to funding. Black individuals and communities have traditionally been the most likely to be denied access to capital. That’s partly why the racial wealth gap is still so wide: the typical white family has 8X times the wealth of the typical Black family.

Coined

Crypto crime had a banner year as the industry stumbled, but it’s still a small slice of the pie

Coming in hot… during crypto winter. Last year saw a record $20B+ in illicit crypto transactions, according to a Chainalysis report. Those came in the form of dark-net market sales, ransomware payments, scams, and hacks. Cross-chain bridges alone saw hundreds of millions stolen in hacks (most notably Ronin and Wormhole). Note: that $20B+ doesn't include any crypto lost to failed exchanges like FTX or bankrupt crypto lenders such as Celsius.

Getting bigger… while staying small. The total dollar value of illicit crypto transactions has been trending up for years. In 2017 it was $5B. In 2019 it hit $12B. And in 2021 it broke $18B. But that rapid climb doesn't tell the entire crypto-crime story. That's because criminal transactions have remained a relatively small percentage of the ~$1T crypto market:

  • Not so big time: Last year's $20B crime record was just 0.24% of all crypto activity that year, and 2% of crypto's total market cap.

  • For some time: Illicit transactions have remained under 2% of total crypto-transaction volumes since 2017.

Crypto winter didn't freeze crypto crime… but there wasn't a huge growth spurt either. Last year's market downturn saw $2T in investor value wiped out, which led to trouble at behemoths like DCG and Gemini. In this contracting environment, it's surprising that crime rose at all. But zooming out, that record high looks like crypto business as usual.

Blog

The Crypto Catch-Up…

📸 Flashy… The SEC charged lender Genesis and exchange Gemini with offering unregistered securities. Regulators said 340K Gemini customers are out $900M that was sent to Genesis' lending program.

🌶️ Spicy… Disgraced FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried launched a Substack newsletter while awaiting trial on fraud charges related to his exchange's collapse. In his first post SBF denied stealing customer funds.

🎤 Braggy… Binance CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao said the 8K-person exchange is planning a hiring spree. As other exchanges like Coinbase announce fresh layoffs, CZ said Binance expects to pump headcount by up to 30%.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Bread: Footlong icon Subway, the US’s largest restaurant chain, is reportedly looking to sell itself in a deal that could value it at $10B+. Sales grew 13% last year thanks to turnaround efforts including menu changes.

  • Chased: JPMorgan is suing the 30-year-old founder of Frank, a fintech startup it bought for $175M, alleging that she created millions of fake users and lied about the company’s success to seal the acquisition.

  • Handle: Twitter is said to be considering selling usernames through online auctions to bring in more revenue. Elon Musk has said that eliminating inactive accounts could free up 1.5B handles.

  • B2B2B: Walmart wants to be more than a consumer go-to. America’s No. 1 retailer struck a deal with Salesforce to sell more of its back-end tech and services (like delivery) to other retailers.

  • Old: The FAA system breakdown that grounded flights on Wednesday apparently came after years of warnings from regulators and lawmakers. Transportation officials described the tech as “failing vintage hardware.”

Friday

  • Earnings expected from: UnitedHealth, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, and Delta

Authors of this Snacks own shares: of Delta and Walmart

ID: 2678097

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Latest Stories

Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing the US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, that means that Uncle Sam loses more than two cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th-straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Business

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.

Tech

Meta’s not telling where it got its AI training data

Today Meta unleashed its ChatGPT competitor, Meta AI, across its apps and as a standalone. The company boasts that it is running on its latest, greatest AI model, Llama 3, which was trained on “data of the highest quality”! A dataset seven times larger than Llama2! And includes 4 times more code!

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

Today’s earnings: Who’s making money edition

Here are some some notable numbers out this morning, as earnings season gathers steam. Thursday’s main event will be Netflix after the close of trading. (Keep an eye on its advertising business.) But until then...

7.13%

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is back above 7%, according to weekly numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the highest level in four months. High borrowing costs are creating havoc for would-be buyers, as affordability lingers at the low levels not seen consistently since the late 1980s.

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Business

Amazon’s spy ops on rivals: shell companies, printed docs, and a fake Japanese streetwear brand

Some companies check out rivals’ websites, stores and public filings to stay abreast of the competition. Amazon made its own fake shell company and brands, transacted hundreds of thousands of dollars per year undercover on competitors’ platforms, and kept its intel operation a secret for nearly a decade even from others at Amazon, according to a fascinating investigation by the Wall Street Journal.

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Crypto
Jack Morse
4/17/24

Worldcoin pivots to the blockchain… with a 'humans only' discount

Worldcoin, the “proof of personhood” crypto project launched by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, said it plans to launch its own ethereum layer-2 (L2) blockchain dubbed World Chain. The pitch: a blockchain where it’s both easier and cheaper for people to transact than bots.

Worldcoin has made waves for its iris-scanning metallic orb that promises a future where people can mathematically prove they’re real humans and not AI bots.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

Business

Smooth sailing? Not for superyachts

Sales of the luxury boats sank 17% last year. Meanwhile, Super-SUPER yachts (over 650 feet long) took the biggest sales dip, falling around 40%. Part of the problem: a pandemic-era backlog has led to a three- to four-year waitlist for new yacht orders. Meanwhile Russian oligarchs — former MVP customers — are largely out of the boat-buying business due to sanctions.

Dr Martens shares have been stomped

American sales of Docs have dropped