Monday Oct.19, 2020

📰 Twitter's Biden article problem

_Wondering why the Twitter drama isn't #trending on Twitter_
_Wondering why the Twitter drama isn't #trending on Twitter_

Hey Snackers,

Ancient mummies have been unearthed in Egypt after being buried for over 2,600 years — in other words, since January 2020.

Stocks barely budged for the week as hopes for a 2nd pre-election stimulus package faded. Also: US COVID-19 hospitalizations hit the highest level in nearly six weeks, and new cases hit records in Europe.

Drama

Twitter and Facebook's latest moderation moves could cost them their immunity

The article that has Twitter trending… isn’t trending on Twitter. It all started on Wednesday with an unconfirmed New York Post article showing allegedly hacked emails from Joe Biden’s son, Hunter. TLDR: the emails are unverified, but unflattering to both Bidens — and they were provided to the NYP by Trump's lawyer Rudy Giuliani (read: political agenda). Twitter and Facebook limited the article’s distribution with two very different approaches…

  • Facebook limited its visibility — FB algorithms didn’t place posts linking to the story as highly in people’s feeds, curbing sharing.
  • Twitter full-on blocked people from posting links to the story and emails, citing rules against sharing hacked content.

Think fast… Social giants usually get heat for lagging on moderation, so their swift reaction raised eyebrows. Now, they’re getting criticized for lack of transparency and consistency in how/when they intervene. The moves backfired:

  • Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey will likely get subpoenaed by the Senate tomorrow. Dorsey was also already set to testify on Oct 28 along with Facebook’s Zuck (great timing).
  • The story got even more attention. Biden/NYP was the #1 search on Google Trends on Wednesday with 1M+ hits.
  • Twitter apologized. It reversed its decision and said it’ll no longer remove hacked content unless it’s directly shared by hackers.

This could be the breaking point on Section 230… That Congressional legislation protects social media companies from being liable for what users post. They can’t be sued for posts, but also can’t be punished for “reasonable moderation.” This drama has revived calls for repealing 230, including from President Trump. The case: if social networks act like editors, then they should be accountable for all content on their platforms. Losing 230 immunity would be world-shattering for them — imagine if Facebook got sued every time someone shared something offensive or false.

Highs

Who's up...

Ignoring that weird thing on your toe… UnitedHealth thrives on it. Shares of the largest US health insurer surged last week after it reported expectation-smashing profit and raised its yearly forecast. Apparently, people are still avoiding the doctors’ office (has a germy ring to it). This slower-than-expected rebound in deferred care means United was spending less on covering your bills (while still pocketing your premiums). But United shelled out more than in the previous quarter, signaling an uptick in demand.

What would Elon do?... Nio, sometimes called "the Tesla of China," has had a glow up in 2020 (unlike the rest of us). Nio kicked off the year desperate for cash after burning through $6B. But the EV stock has soared ~700% since April 29, when it got a $1B cash injection from Chinese government-backed investors. The stock soared 30% just last week thanks to analyst upgrades on growth momentum. In 2019, Nio delivered just ~20K cars compared to Tesla's ~367K — but its battery-swapping service is an interesting differentiator.

Lows

...and who's down

Haven’t seen a Biscoff cookie since March… Instead of dropping dough on a Mykonos trip this summer, you were making sourdough starters. Hence: Delta’s passenger sales plunged 83% last quarter and it lost $5.4B (compared to a $1.5B profit for the same quarter last year). Delta avoided involuntary job cuts — but United and American are slashing 32K employees since federal aid expired. And stimulus help doesn’t look like it’s landing soon.

Waiting for the happy ending... AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, said it'll run out of cash by late 2020 or early 2021 without financial rescuing. 83% of AMC's US theaters have reopened at limited capacity, but attendance is down ~85% from last year. To make a bad situation worse, studios have been delaying blockbuster debuts. Disney postponed almost all its movies slated for 2020 release, including Marvel's “Black Widow." Now AMC's focused on raising fresh cash to survive until things normalize.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Thrive: How to achieve more by doing less better, according to ancient philosophy. Life isn't short, but we make it short by wasting time (deep).
  • Relax: Why some people burn out and others don't — developing emotional intelligence is key to managing high stress.
  • Eat: 10 things you never knew about eggs, and the elusive "sell by" date explained (they're good for 3 to 5 weeks after).
  • Work: How new grads can create a 5-year career path that's recession-proof. Plans aren't important, but planning is key.
  • Focus: Why "attention management" matters more than time management. Only 2% of people can effectively multitask.
  • Live: The 4 biggest wastes of time we regret as we get older (besides endlessly scrolling funny cat videos).

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This Week

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Twitter and Delta

ID: 1371064

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
Business
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Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.