Tuesday Sep.17, 2019

You’re loyal to George Costanza — Not Netflix

_When parents ask "Where's the TV guide?" about Netflix_
_When parents ask "Where's the TV guide?" about Netflix_

Hey Snackers,

Some Adele with that Merlot? Or more of an Ed Sheeran Chardonnay kinda night? Spotify is now pairing songs with wines.

Oil's biggest one-day price-spike ever messed with markets on Monday, because economies still run on regular unleaded. We got more for you on that below.

Search

A secretive Amazon team reportedly tweaked its core algorithm (and violated Amazon's #1 principle)

The greatest digital real estate on Earth... is Amazon's search results. And a WSJ investigation alleges that Amazon tweaked its core search algorithm last year to boost sales of its own products. These stats about Amazon's subtle-yet-powerful search feature humbled our souls and scream the key context:

  • Nearly half of all online purchases in the US are on Amazon.
  • 66% of all purchases on Amazon are from items in the 1st page of Amazon search results.
  • 20% of Amazon purchases are whatever was #1 in the search results.

Does the name “A9” mean anything to you?... Stands for "Algorithm" (and there are "9" letters in it). A9 is the Amazon division responsible for Amazon Search — and because that valuable search tool is ripe for corruption, Amazon keeps the team away from the Seattle HQ in Silicon Valley as a subsidiary company with a separate CEO. Here's what the WSJ discovered:

  • A9's core mission is to "get the best results for our users."
  • But Amazon's retail arm back home in Seattle wanted to push more profitable products to the top of search results — not necessarily the best products for customers.
  • So they pressured A9 to tweak the algorithm to increase sales of its own products and 3rd party ones it can make more money off.

This breaks Amazon's core rule: "Customer Obsession"... And could be unlawful since Amazon should be an unbiased marketplace, not a retailer pushing its own brands. But Amazon may have ignored its own laws: Its 14 leadership principles — this story violates the very first one. If Amazon tweaks search results to benefit Amazon, it's not benefiting you and us as customers.

Fun SnackFact: After the WSJ published the report, the A9 website was taken down. Awkward.

Yada-Yada-Yada

Netflix splurges on Seinfeld to survive the streaming wars

But are you master of your domain?... Netflix is. The streamer just treated itself to Seinfeld. All of it — for more than $500M. Netflix rounded up the crew from Tom's Restaurant (close-talkers included) because it needs to replace its top shows that are getting yanked by their owners amid these streaming wars.

  • The Office (#1 Netflix show): Gone in 2020 — NBC is taking it back to include in its own yet-to-be-named streaming service.
  • Friends (#2): Gone in 2021 — AT&T is taking it back and adding it to HBO Max.
  • All Disney movies: Gone by November — Disney is launching competitor Disney+.
  • FYI: Seinfeld hits Netflix in 2021 (not that there's anything wrong with that) and remains on Hulu (probably with commercials) until then.

'No streaming for you, Sony'... The key here isn't how much Netflix paid (it was more than Friends or The Office recently went for), it's who sold it: Sony. The only companies willing to work with Netflix are the ones without their own streaming platforms. Jerry, George, Elaine, and Kramer aren't too worried — their series has made over $3B since the finale episode.

You're loyal to George Costanza — not Netflix... Streamers are discovering that cord-cutters care most about the shows they'll watch over and over again — aka sitcoms. Netflix lost US subscribers last quarter because its news shows didn't land. Now it's searching for a "loyalty leader" — a show that keeps you hooked to your subscription. It's betting Seinfeld will, yada yada yada, maintain your subscription.

Geopolitical

Oil surges after attacks on Saudi Arabia — here's our perspective on the real market risk

Headlines with the word "missile" are taken seriously... Investors pumped up the price of an oil barrel by the most ever in a single day (about 15%) on Monday — a weekend drone strike had knocked off 1/2 of Saudi Arabia's oil production. Rebels in Yemen took credit for the violence, but American officials believe Iran was really behind the moves.

The global economy = oil-thangry (thirsty + angry)... and there was suddenly less oil. That scarcity caused a rapid snatching up of oil contracts which drove up oil prices. We don't think this will last long — here's why:

  • The shortage isn't huge: 6% of the world's oil supply was cut off by the attacks, aka 5.9M barrels per day. That means 94% of oil is still pumping.
  • The shortage will only last days/weeks (not months): The Saudis sent a SWAT team of workers to get most production back online in days, with 100% coming within weeks.
  • We've got a spare tank: America has 600M barrels of emergency oil. And we're not even planning to tap them unless more attacks/shortages occur.

Markets can handle this – but they can't handle a war... Although Saudi Arabia and Iran are the direct foes, the US (#1) backs Saudi Arabia (#2) and Russia (#3) backs Iran (#7). Those make up 4 of the top 7 oil-producing countries of the world. And President Trump's tweet that the US is "locked and loaded" already boosted American defense stocks.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • TBD: WeWork's IPO reportedly getting delayed (one of its top investors wants to shelve the whole thing)
  • anti-iPhone: Google's new Pixel phone will be unveiled on October 15th
  • 2020: Snapchat just released a full library of all the political ads in the app to try to avoid another 2016-Russia-intervention issue
  • Picket: GM's first worker strike in a decade? It'll cost the car company $90M a day
  • White flag: Purdue Pharma is filing for bankruptcy as part of its settlement with the states for its roll dishing out opioids

Tuesday

  • Earnings from FedEx and Adobe
  • The Industrial Production report gives us a good sense of how the US/China trade war is affecting American manufacturing

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Amazon.

20190917-954844-2877184

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Latest Stories

Tech

SpaceX is creating NASA spaceport congestion problems

NASA is considering expanding its Wallops Island, Virginia, facilities to support three times as many rocket launches, TechCrunch reports. Why does it need space for that many rockets? Mostly Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Launches by SpaceX and other private space exploration companies have been taking off in recent years.

Currently the Wallops Flight Facility authorizes 18 launches a year. The proposed additions could bring that number up to 52. Given that the U.S. had 116 launch attempts in all of last year, an additional 34 launches adds a lot more capacity in an increasingly lucrative space.

The space economy was already worth $564 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow another 41% in five years.

Currently the Wallops Flight Facility authorizes 18 launches a year. The proposed additions could bring that number up to 52. Given that the U.S. had 116 launch attempts in all of last year, an additional 34 launches adds a lot more capacity in an increasingly lucrative space.

The space economy was already worth $564 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow another 41% in five years.

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Markets

Carvana’s stock is sometimes up, sometimes down, always volatile

Shares in online car seller Carvana surged some 34% yesterday, continuing their recent resurgence. That rebound has made the father-son duo behind the company some $11B since late 2022 — a period when the stock was dropping as much as 40% in a single day, and was teetering on the verge of insolvency as creditors explored options to restructure its debt.

Since then the company, famous for its “car vending machines”, has seen its fortunes reverse, as the used-car market has stabilized and sales have returned to growth (up 17% in Q1 2024). Most importantly, however, Carvana seems to have gotten a handle on its massive $5B+ debt load — which was a major factor in why the equity in the company was so volatile — after swinging into profitable territory in Q1.

Yesterday’s move leaves the stock up more than 16x in the last 12 months.

Carvana stock volatility

Since then the company, famous for its “car vending machines”, has seen its fortunes reverse, as the used-car market has stabilized and sales have returned to growth (up 17% in Q1 2024). Most importantly, however, Carvana seems to have gotten a handle on its massive $5B+ debt load — which was a major factor in why the equity in the company was so volatile — after swinging into profitable territory in Q1.

Yesterday’s move leaves the stock up more than 16x in the last 12 months.

Carvana stock volatility

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$110B

Apple announced a massive $110B boost in share buybacks — the biggest of all time. That’s even higher than the $90 billion analysts expected. For context in the last 12 years Apple spent a total of $650 billion buying back its own stock. The entire S&P 500 did $795 billion last year. That certainly softens the blow from a 4% decrease in revenue.

Ozempic, Wegovy drive Novo Nordisk profits up

Shares of Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk fell on Thursday, as investors digested the latest hard numbers from the maker of heavily-hyped drugs Ozempic and Wegovy.

For the record, sales of both continue to explode, though sales of Wegovy, which more than doubled to kr. 9.8B, came in about 10% below analyst expectations. Ozempic sales, which slowed, actually were better than expectations.

In Danish currency terms, Q1 profit jumped 28% for the company, which is based in suburban Copenhagen. Novo Nordisk’s market value of roughly $570 billion is now larger than the entire Danish economy.

Luke Kawa
5/2/24

Short sellers are getting squeezed on Carvana, Wayfair, and Enovix

Shares of Carvana, Wayfair, and Enovix were ripping Thursday morning.

These companies don’t have too much in common from a business operations standpoint — one makes batteries, another needs batteries, and one sells furniture and rugs that really tie the room together.

What they do have in common right now though: traders were betting on their shares to fall, and each released quarterly earnings reports either after the market closed on Wednesday or on Thursday morning that weren’t as bad as feared, in one way or another.

As of mid-April, short interest as a percentage of equity float for these stocks ranged from 26% (Wayfair) to 31% (Enovix), according to exchange data.

Betting against two of these companies had paid off so far this year, with Carvana being the exception. Shares of the used-car retailer were up 78% heading into Thursday’s session versus Wayfair (-14%), and Enovix (-47%). For comparison, the S&P 500 Index is up 5.8 percent year-to-date.

Hat tip to Tom Hearden, senior trader at Skylands Capital, for bringing this to our attention.

World

Japan's yen is lassoed to the dollar, for better or for worse

What happens in the US economy doesn’t stay there: the Fed’s choice to keep interest rates unchanged could increase pressure pushing down the Japanese yen. On Wednesday, Jerome Powell held interest rates steady at a two-decade high. 

Before sticky interest-rates were announced, the yen on Monday flirted with (but didn’t quite hit) a 160:1 conversion rate with the US dollar. It’s widely thought that Japanese authorities intervened to prop up the yen by buying yen and selling dollars. But the suspected trading spree barely budged the yen’s value, which is the weakest it’s been vs. the dollar since the ’80s. 

¥157 to $1

Japan’s especially sensitive to US interest-rate decisions because its own rates are ultra-low. The problem: investors buy yen at low borrowing rates but quickly convert it to another currency for higher returns. 

Even just the anticipation (more like dread) of rate-cut delays has contributed to the yen’s slide. When it comes to when the Fed expects confidence to rise enough to slash rates, Powell on Wednesday left investors on read with a big “IDK.”