Wednesday Apr.29, 2020

🛍 Shopify's Rebel Alliance vs. Amazon

_A New Hope Against the Amazon Empire_
_A New Hope Against the Amazon Empire_

Hey Snackers,

You may not be able to have a party, but you can always have a dart-y: the world of competitive darts is carrying on swimmingly during the lockdown — __dartspeople are thriving. __

Markets dipped following sharp drops from major tech stocks like Apple, Amazon, and Facebook. Today the Fed is set to make its latest monetary policy announcement, and we'll get a look at America's 1st quarter GDP report. Hope for the best, prepare for the WOAT.

Shop

Shopify threatens the Amazon Empire with a game-changing app (and yawn-inducing name)

Darth Bezos feels a disturbance... over Shopify's newly-launched, 100% anti-Amazon shopping app. You've probably used Shopify without even knowing it — it powers the ecommerce sales of over 1M businesses, from small mom-and-pop shops to big names like Kylie Cosmetics, Lindt, and Chubbies.

  • Out-of-the-box online store: Shopify's main biz. Need to move your soy wax candle sales online? A Shopify subscription gives you access to its cloud-based shopping cart solution, so you can sell, ship, and manage your candle sales minus extra grunt work.
  • Timely biz model: Shopify's ready-made online store offering is especially important during lockdown — stores that have been forced to close are quickly moving online.

So simple it's brilliant?... Shopify's new consumer-facing shopping app, anticlimactically called: "Shop." Shopify has a bunch of juicy data on products you've bought from its customers (aka other online shops) — with this app, it can aggregate all your fave stores in one place and make spot-on recs:

  • Scroll: Like a hybrid of Amazon and Instagram, Shop lets you scroll through a feed of products it recommends based on your previous buy (try the Shady Matte Lip Kit, Jenny).
  • Follow: Literally "follow" companies on the app like you would influencers.
  • Buy: Once you've seen the pink alligator Chubbies trunks of your dreams, you can make a one-click purchase through Shop Pay.
  • Track: Track all your packages in Shop — Shopify's old package-tracking app was already being used by 16M peeps. Now Shop wants even more.

Shop is the Rebel Alliance... to Amazon's empire. It's a hope for small retailers to gain leverage against the monolithic behemoth that controls around 50% of US online shopping. Before, Shopify was only empowering businesses to go online independently — now, it's urging them to unite under the Shop umbrella. Shop's biggest challenge: The friction of convincing you to download a new app.

Troll

Trolls World Tour is thriving outside theaters — might change "movie math" forever

If you thought trolls only thrived on Twitter and Reddit... Think again. Last month, when execs at Comcast's Universal Pictures heard that all US movie theaters would be shutting down, they were bummed — it was just weeks away from the April 10th release of the crucial Trolls movie sequel, "Trolls World Tour."

  • Universal decided not to postpone the release — instead, it sent the movie straight to digital rental ($19.99 on Apple TV, Amazon, or YouTube). It was a decision that would not be regretted.
  • The Trolls sequel has already made more money for Universal during 3 weeks of digital release than the original Trolls movie did after 5 months in theaters. Trolls #1 just got trolled.

The movie math is changing... Studio execs looked at this surprise digital release success and saw $$$ signs — not just for Trolls, but for the industry as a whole.

  • 50%: How much studios reportedly get to keep from box office sales of their movies (theaters mostly get the rest). Trolls #1 made $154M at the US box office — Universal got to keep only $77M.
  • 80%: How much studios get to keep from digital rentals/purchases. Trolls #2 has racked up over $95M from 5M households since its digital release and has already made almost $80M.

Less disruption, more hybrid-ization... Sure, paying $19.99 to have your kid sit quietly in front of the TV watching Trolls for 1.5 hours is priceless. That doesn't spell the end of movie theaters, though. Direct-to-streaming isn't one-size-fits all and isn't as perfect in a post-lockdown world. Universal's CEO said yesterday they'd see a hybrid model in the future, where some releases happen in theaters (blockbusters) and others stream ASAP (smaller, on-the-fence titles). Oh and in late-breaking news, AMC Theaters is banning all Universal movies because it feels miffed by Universal's comments.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Shop: America's biggest mall owner, Simon Property, plans to reopen 49 of its malls and outlets starting Friday (free masks and temperature tests as you shop).
  • Zoomed: Oracle wins Zoom's cloud deal, beating out Amazon, Microsoft, and Google's cloud divisions.
  • Ride: Harley-Davidson's sales plunged 21% globally, so it's slashing dividends.
  • South: Southwest posts its first loss in 11 years — and it expects May sales to fall 95% from last year.
  • Postpone: US wireless companies including AT&T, Verizon, and Comcast won't cancel service or charge late fees to virus-affected customers until June 30.
  • Treat: UnitedHealth may acquire remote mental health service AbleTo for $470M.

Wednesday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Shopify and Amazon

ID: 1169786

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Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

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Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
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Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.