Smoke

Canopy Growth falls 14% because Canadians didn't smoke enough legal marijuana

Snacks / Thursday, November 14, 2019
_Remember that time Canopy completely overestimated how much weed it could sell?_
_Remember that time Canopy completely overestimated how much weed it could sell?_

Canada's finest... Earth's biggest cannabis company (illegal cartels not included) just signed a joint venture with Drake north of the border. But shares of Canopy Growth plummeted 14% Thursday on word its $57M in quarterly sales were lower than expected. When recreational marijuana was legalized in October 2018, Canopy expected years of pent-up weed demand to drive mega sales. Turns out it overestimated.

  • Canada's provinces are stuffed with too much unsold cannabis.
  • Economics tells us that when there's oversupply, prices fall. Last year, Canopy sold marijuana for $8,084 per kilo on average. This year it's down to $5,963 per kilo.
  • That’s a 27% drop in the price of Canopy's core product.

Legalize slowly... Canadians are a patient people, so their legalization rolled out in 2 phases. "Cannabis 1.0" was the first phase, including only marijuana leaves and oil. "Cannabis 2.0" is the freshly legal status of more approachable stuff for 1st-timers, like edibles and weed-infused beverages.

  • Canopy's CEO says that 2.0 will “drive the next leg of growth.”
  • So it just submitted 30 products for approval, including weed chocolate and drinks — and sales of those 2.0 products will start sprouting up in future Canopy earnings reports.

Canopy has an advantage in Cannabis 2.0... because its biggest investor is liquor legend Constellation Brands. The Corona-owner piled $4B into Canopy to be partner-in-crime for experimental cannabis-infused alcohol. So while cannabis rival Aurora embraces pot farming and Tilray focuses on medical marijuana, Canopy can invest hard in THC-concocted LaCroix/rosé replacements for Cannabis 2.0.

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