Friday Jan.08, 2021

💰 Bitcoin's big $40K

_Roblox's non-target audience_
_Roblox's non-target audience_

Hey Snackers,

We're still reeling from Wednesday's appalling attack on the US Capitol. But White House resignations and calls to remove President Trump from office via the 25th amendment didn't fluster investors, who were looking ahead.

Stocks notched record highs yesterday, as Congress confirmed Joe Biden's election. The Nasdaq soared past $13K for the first time. And Bitcoin deserves a full story...

BTC

Bitcoin's Big $40K: we're breaking down possible reasons for the epic rally

Off the (block)chain... Yesterday, bitcoin topped $40K for the first time, more than doubling in value in the span of a month. The record price pushed the total value of the cryptocurrency market above $1T (also a first) — bitcoin makes up around $700B of that, and has nearly 5X'd over the past year.

Call it institutional FOMO... Bitcoin was launched by the mysterious "Satoshi Nakamoto" in 2009. But it really took off in late 2017, when it tripled from September to December — but then fell back down to earth. That rally was mainly driven by individual retail investors (and their FOMO). This time around...

  • Big institutional investors like banks and hedge funds got the FOMO bug, too. MassMutual Life Insurance invested $100M in bitcoin just last month. But that's not all...
  • Mainstream investors have more access to bitcoin than ever, with fintechs like Robinhood (aka: us), Coinbase, Square, and now even Venmo-owner Paypal offering crypto trading. Paypal also announced plans to let users shop/pay at 26M merchants with crypto.
  • Well-known investors like Paul Tudor Jones have come out as "bitcoin believers," inspiring bit-confidence in retail and institutional investors alike.

Bitcoin's superpower = anti-inflation... While bitcoin tends to be volatile and crash-prone, some investors see it as a hedge in case the US dollar loses too much value and prices soar (aka: inflation). ICYMI: The Fed’s money printers have been blasting out dollars to inject back into the economy. More dollars = less demand for dollars = less valuable dollars = potential inflation — oh, and the national debt is at $27.7T. Meanwhile, bitcoin's supply is capped: today, about 18.5M bitcoins have been mined out of the 21M that will ever be created (by 2140). But in theory, cash can be printed endlessly, increasing the risk of inflation.

Play(date)

Roblox makes video games differently — now it's going public (differently)

Diamonds on my Roblox... Online gaming company Roblox just raised $520M from private investors ahead of its public debut, leveling it up to a $29.5B valuation — that's more than 7X its February 2020 valuation. If you haven't heard of Roblox, that's probably because you're over the age of 15. It's basically the YouTube of user-created games, except it also lets you play/chat with friends. Roblox launched in 2006, but exploded in 2020:

  • ~75% of American kids ages 9 through 12 now play Roblox. Homebound tweens flocked to the platform for virtual playdates and b-days.
  • Roblox now has more than 31M daily users, up from 18M in September 2019. It's still losing money, but sales grew 68% in the first three quarters of 2020 (from the same period in 2019).

But how does it make those Ro-bucks?... With Robux. While games are free, kids pay for virtual currency to upgrade their avatars or get super powers. When someone spends in-game, Roblox gives a 24.5% cut to the game's developer. In exchange for all of that content, Roblox shoulders the app store and cloud hosting costs, providing a free (popular) platform to develop games.

IPOs are losing points... Roblox was planning to go public through a traditional IPO. Then it watched Airbnb and DoorDash shares open on the stock market at roughly double their IPO prices, and said "no thanks." Companies that are going public only raise money when they sell to VIP investors in the IPO — so Airbnb and DoorDash didn't benefit directly when their shares soared post-IPO (if anything, they lost out). So Roblox has chosen to use a rare Direct Listing, where no new shares are created. This cheaper, faster option is becoming more common as IPOs lose favor.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Blocked: Facebook's Zuck says Trump will be blocked from FB and Insta for at least the next two weeks (aka: Biden's inauguration day).
  • Shots: NY's Governor Cuomo revealed plans to back mobile sports gambling in the state, sending DraftKings stock higher.
  • Max: Boeing agrees to pay $2.5B to the Department of Justice to settle a two-year criminal conspiracy probe on the 737 Max crashes.
  • Battle: Yum Brands' KFC enters Chicken Sandwich War II by launching a new premium sando nationwide (yes, another one).
  • Vaxed: Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine was approved for use in the EU, making it the second vax to be authorized there after Pfizer's.

Friday

  • US unemployment rate released

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Moderna

ID: 1471181

Get Your News

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Latest Stories

Walt Hickey
15h

When the chips are down

Super Micro Computer, which produces the kind of servers fueling the AI boom, declined to pre-announce earnings. This spooked investors and rattled the entire chips-producing sector. That sent Super Micro plunging 23%, and dragged down lots of their customers and suppliers down with it.

Markets
Bottom lines
19h
April 19: AmEx up, paint ain’t, banks sank
2024-04-19-norway-fund-site

Norway now has a wealth fund worth $290k+ for every citizen of the country

William Coulman, David Crowther21h
Sponsored by
Go Deeper with Market Depth

Nasdaq TotalView powers the need-to-know data serious investors rely on.

Read more
Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Wind energy

More wind power capacity was installed last year than ever before

Tom Jones, David Crowther21h
World
Jack Raines
21h

Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Read more

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Read more
Tom Jones, David Crowther
22h
The data doesn’t lie: Taylor Swift is the biggest pop star on the planet

TOPSHOT-CORRECTION / AUSTRALIA-ENTERTAINMENT-MUSIC-SWIFT
Matt Phillips
22h

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech
Rani Molla
23h

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Exclusive | China Orders Apple to Remove Popular Messaging Apps

Exclusive | China Orders Apple to Remove Popular Messaging Apps

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business
Rani Molla
23h

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Tesla recalls the Cybertruck for faulty accelerator pedals that can get stuck

Tesla recalls the Cybertruck for faulty accelerator pedals that can get stuck | TechCrunch

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Your inbox is ready

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Markets
Millie Giles & David Crowther
24h

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Why the World of Chocolate Is in Crisis

Why the World of Chocolate Is in Crisis

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
4/19/24

Governments and companies tackle the climate crisis as damage intensifies

Jack Morse
Read
4/19/24

Extreme weather has cost the US $2.6T, and the number keeps rising

Max Knoblauch
Read
4/19/24

The cost of waste: e-junk and emerging tech add to America’s pollution prob

Nia Warfield
Read
4/19/24

The biz of electric vehicles: the EV transition hits speed bumps

Jamie Wilde
Read
Jack Morse
$10B blow
4/19/24
Bitcoin business will lose billions in the halving

Investors and miners have spent months prepping for the crypto-shattering event lying in bitcoin’s code. It’s finally arrived.

Silhouette of a bitcoin miner pulling a bitcoin logo from a hole
World
Friday, April 19th
4/19/24
What’s happening
Casey Newton
Platformer
4/18/24
Meta’s new AI paves the way for social networks where nothing is what it seems

Five ways of thinking about Llama 3, its latest large language model

Screenshot of Meta’s AI image generator, frog in a bathrobe
Power
Matt Phillips
4/18/24

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢

Pop Quiz!

What’s the world’s busiest airport?
Don't be a sucka
Business
Rani Molla
4/18/24

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.