Thursday Mar.25, 2021

🌮 Taco Bell goes full iPhone

_Taco Bell's Tim Fry Cook moment_
_Taco Bell's Tim Fry Cook moment_

Hey Snackers,

A headline that the world doesn't need right now: "Facebook says Instagram for kids is coming."

Markets dipped yesterday as investors continued to pull back from tech stocks.

Crunch

KFC-owner Yum Brands just made its biggest move in a year: Taco Bell 2.0

Crunchy on the outside... techy on the inside. Yum Brands is the fast-food icon that owns KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell (aka: Ken-taco-hut). Since digital orders surged during the pandemic, Yum is becoming less fry cook, more Tim Cook. It just made its second tech acquisition in less than a month:

  • Tictuk: Not a typo. Tictuk is the hilariously-named Israeli startup that lets you order food from social media and messaging apps (but is there a TikTok integration?).
  • Yum bought Tictuk to capitalize on “conversational commerce," which makes ordering a Crunchwrap Supreme as easy as sending a text (or a FB message).

Techy and I know it... Yum's digital sales in 2020 hit a record of $17B, up ~45% from 2019. Now it's doubling down on tech. We know that because its CFO said "omnichannel" and "frictionless" in the same sentence (describing its ordering strategy). It's also apparent in Taco Bell's futuristic makeover:

  • "Go Mobile": Taco Bell's digital-focused new restaurant design. It includes: dual drive-thrus, smaller dining rooms, curbside pickup, and "bellhops" taking orders on digital tablets. TB is planning to expand "Go Mobile" nationwide, for at least 30 locations by the end of 2021.

iPhone architecture is here... We've all seen apps designed for iPhone. But Taco Bell's techy restaurant is one of the first physical stores designed for iPhone. Chipotle did something similar in November with digital-only, table-free restaurants (see: Chipotlanes). As ecommerce eats everything, we'll likely see more mobile-optimized store formats. AKA: iPhone architecture.

Chip

Intel is splurging $20B to become the Captain America of chips (again)

Major throwback... The Intel sound logo when your PC turned on. Intel used to be one of the 10 most valuable companies in the world. But it lost its mojo: its current stock price is lower than it was during its peak in 2000. Intel's new boss wants to get the mojo back...

  • Reboot: According to Intel's new CEO Pat Gelsinger: "Intel is back. The old Intel is now the new Intel." Soo metaphysical.
  • The plan: More outsourcing, but also more manufacturing. Intel isn't abandoning its status quo of both designing and producing its own chips. Case in point...
  • $20B: How much Intel will invest into two new chip factories in Arizona. ICYMI, chips are a hot commodity right now (see: The Great Chip Shortage).

The real kicker... Intel plans to lean into making chips for other companies, too (aka: "foundry" services) — that got investors excited. Intel has primarily manufactured only its own chips. Now, it's going to use its factories for other companies' chips, too — even its competitors'. This is also a revenge move...

  • Intel used to provide chips for Macbooks and iPhones. Then Apple broke the relationship and replaced Intel laptop processors with its own chips (and Intel’s smartphone chips with Qualcomm's).
  • Now Intel is courting Microsoft, Google, Qualcomm, and others with its foundry services. The equivalent of a "thriving without u in Hawaii" Insta post.

Intel thinks it can be Captain America... In February, President Biden signed an exec order to address critical shortages in the US supply chain — including chips. The Great Chip Shortage is shutting down American car factories and disrupting global production. But more than 80% of chip production happens in Asia. By investing $20B into US chip manufacturing instead of outsourcing to other counties, Intel hopes it can become the Captain America of chips once more.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Greener: New York State is ready to legalize recreational marijuana under an agreement reached by Gov. Cuomo and legislators.
  • Traffic: Egypt's Suez Canal got blocked by a massive container ship — problem, since ~12% of global trade passes through the Suez.
  • Crypto: London-based crypto service Blockchain.com raises $300M at a ~$5.2B valuation. It's the third-largest fundraise ever for a crypto company.
  • Divan: Restoration Hardware stock popped 8% after the fancy furniture retailer posted expectations-beating sales growth (#HauteHouseHype).
  • TuPrivate: San Diego’s self-driving truck startup TuSimple filed to go public through a traditional IPO.
  • Tescoin: Elon Musk (aka: the Technoking of Tesla) says people in the US can now buy a Tesla with bitcoin.

Thursday

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Tesla, Google, Microsoft, and Apple

ID: 1578195

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.