Tuesday Aug.11, 2020

🍃 Canopy's Growth (beyond the leaf)

_When the CBD-infused treats hit all at once_
_When the CBD-infused treats hit all at once_

Hey Snackers,

The UK's Top Diplocat is retiring. Palmerston, the eminent Chief Mouser at the British Foreign Office, has decided to leave the London diplomatic scene behind and retire to the countryside. His accomplishments are almost as numerous as the cat puns we spared you from.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq was dragged down by stock dips in Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook. Despite uncertainty around the 2nd coronavirus stimulus package, the S&P 500 index is close to its pre-lockdown highs.

Smoke

Canopy Growth sales soar 22% on "beyond the leaf" initiatives

Q2 hits right... Canopy Growth, Earth's most valuable cannabis company, just hit investors with stronger-than-expected earnings. Somehow Canopy's sales were 22% higher than the same quarter last year despite recreational weed sales in Canada falling overall. Canopy stock popped 8% on the news. To smoke the wider market, the Canadian cannabis giant focused beyond the leaf:

  • Beverages: Canopy expanded distribution of CBD-infused sparkling water and sports drinks. It more than 2X'd its beverage production in July, and is now the #1 producer of weed-related drinks in Canada.
  • E-CBD: Canopy launched a US online shop for CBD products like softgels, oils, and wrinkle creams.
  • Martha Stewart: Launching soon, Martha is partnering on a line of CBD-based animal health products (for when your dog needs to chill).

To put it bluntly... Canopy slashed spending. It sadly cut over 18% of its employees since December and shut some of its cannabis-growing greenhouses. That left it more $$$ to invest in the above mentioned growth initiatives. Canopy was also able to significantly narrow its quarterly loss from $194M to $128M.

"Beyond the leaf" is key... The late 2018 "weed bubble" has popped. Consumer demand for legalized weed in Canada didn't meet hyped expectations, and cannabis companies found they'd over-produced. Now...

  • Canopy stock is down 65% from its 2018 high, Aurora is down 92%, and Tilray — which reported a buzz killing massive loss yesterday — is down 95%.
  • Going "beyond the leaf" with consumer products like CBD drinks and creams is more important than ever. That majorly helped Canopy's growth last quarter.
Fly

Airline shares soar as passenger numbers hit a pandemic high (2nd bailout TBD)

Restock the Terra chips... Airlines are (kind of) back. Airline stocks surged on some high-flying TSA data: on Sunday, the number of people passing through US airport checkpoints was the highest since pre-lockdowns. Delta and American shares surged over 7%, United soared 9%, and Southwest got a 5% bump.

  • On April 15, aka peak pandemic, just 90K people passed through TSA checkpoints — that's 97% fewer passengers than April 15, 2019.
  • From April-July, passenger numbers (very) slowly but surely ticked up, coming in at ~700K/day on average in July (still 75% less than last year).
  • On Sunday, 832K passengers passed through US airport checkpoints, the highest since March 18. While that's a big jump, it's still 70% fewer passengers than last year.

It trends well, but does it end well?... Investors like how passenger numbers are trending, and this latest milestone has made hopes take off. But much of this surge is likely a result of the summer travel rush.

  • TBD whether the trend will continue as the off-peak season hits in the fall — especially if COVID cases continue to surge in the US. Meanwhile...
  • Airlines are burning through the $25B in government bailouts they received in April. Under the terms, they can't make layoffs or job cuts until October 1st.

That October deadline is fast approaching... Even as passenger numbers improve, airline sales don't come close to breaking even with spending. Cash-strapped airlines have warned tens of thousands of employees that they might lose their jobs. Labor unions and airline execs have been pushing for $25 billion in extra aid to preserve jobs through March 2021. President Trump and over a dozen senators have backed them. But unless air travel dramatically picks up soon, even that might not be enough to tide over airlines.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Nikola'd: Electric truck startup Nikola wins an order for 2.5K electric garbage trucks, just a week after its disappointing earnings report.
  • Snapped: Kodak stock plunges 30% after its $765M loan from the US gov to make drugs is put on hold — regulators are investigating insider trading allegations.
  • Wow: The perfect headline to encapsulate the times — Simon Property, the US' largest mall owner, is reportedly looking to turn shuttered department stores into Amazon warehouses.
  • SPACy: Men's telemedicine startup Hims is reportedly in talks to go public by merging with a SPAC at a ~$2B valuation.
  • Revv: Online used car seller Carvana saw a 25% jump in vehicle sales last quarter, when many dealerships were closed.

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Tuesday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Apple

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World

Tangential remarks

Nicolai Tangen, the CEO who holds the purse strings of Norway’s $1.6 trillion sovereign wealth fund, thinks that his fellow Europeans don’t quite stack up to US employees when it comes to pure hustle, telling the Financial Times in a recent interview that there is a difference in “the general level of ambition” and that “the Americans just work harder”. 

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked
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Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

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Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

 Max Holloway and Mark Zuckerberg

Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

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Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).