Monday Oct.31, 2022

🎨 AI gets (scary) creative

We generated this image using DALL-E and the prompt “an oil portrait of a Shiba Inu wearing a business suit and holding an iPhone, in the style of Claude Monet.”
We generated this image using DALL-E and the prompt “an oil portrait of a Shiba Inu wearing a business suit and holding an iPhone, in the style of Claude Monet.”

Hey Snackers,

Another Halloween, another year of knockoff costumes. A few of our favorites: “Ten” from the hit show “Unusual Events.” “Evil Midweek Cutie” (definitely no relation to Wednesday Addams). “Fantastic Magician Boy” (who could it be?). Also a classic: “the rice is strange.”

Stocks rallied to end a turbulent week marked by iffy tech earnings and improving economic data (like: the US economy grew more than expected last quarter after shrinking). The S&P 500 gained 4% while the Dow surged nearly 6%, notching its fourth straight positive week.

Yesterday, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro narrowly lost his bid for a second term to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Creative

“Generative AI” is booming, and it’s revolutionizing the way people make art — and money

Memes become Monet paintings… A new kind of AI is transforming the way people create art and do business. Generative AI uses deep learning and tons of data to convert text prompts into images, videos, and articles. We made the image above using gen-AI and a text prompt.

  • Main character: OpenAI, which has raised billions from Microsoft and others, launched the first major gen-AI tool, Dall-E, last year. It was released to the public last month, and Reddit’s already filled with viral Dall-E creations.
  • Other players: Stability AI raised $100M this month (at a $1B+ valuation) for its open-source gen-AI tool, Stable Diffusion. Meta, Google, Salesforce, and Adobe have built in-house gen-AIs, too, but they’re not publicly available.

Goofy images were only the start… Now entrepreneurs are putting gen-AI to work. 140+ gen-AI startups have launched in recent months: Jasper, which makes AI-generated blog posts, raised $125M at a $1.5B valuation last week. Companies can use it to automate copywriting (think: “a promotional post about air fryers in a friendly tone”). Other startups are auto-generating clothes, floorplans, and ad jingles. Microsoft added Dall-E to its design tools, and Shutterstock plans to use it to make stock images. But ethical concerns abound:

  • Payment problems: Critics say gen-AI doesn’t compensate artists who create the content that “feeds” its algorithms (though Shutterstock has a “contributor” fund).
  • Harassment hitches: Dall-E has safeguards, but some argue that gen-AI can still be used to produce celeb deepfakes and misinfo. Others say it replicates biases, like sexist imagery.
  • Automation anxiety: Some fear gen-AI will put writers and designers out of work (others disagree).

Highly visible = highly valuable… AI has many existing applications (think: self-driving cars, disease diagnosis, fraud protection),but it often operates behind the scenes. And yet generative AI has an accessible wow factor that’s already dazzled many. Some investors say it’ll be a huge industry: prominent VC firm Sequoia predicted that gen-AI could generate “trillions in value” and revolutionize industries that require humans to create original work.

Events

Coming up this week...

Dressed up as Jerome Powell… because interest rates are terrifying. To be the Fed chair all you need are hiking clothes: America’s central bank is expected to raise rates by a “jumbo” 75 basis points on Wednesday — the fourth straight bump of that size. Soaring borrowing costs are spooking investors and raising recession red flags. Last week mortgage rates topped 7% for the first time in 20 years. But economists polled by Reuters said the Fed shouldn’t pause its hiking crusade till inflation drops to around half of its current level (a hot 8.2%).

Winter’s coming… While consumers are still feeling #PumpAnxiety, oil giants are still pumping record profits. Last week Exxon, Chevron, and Total demolished earnings with record results (Exxon took home a $20B profit). Analysts expect Marathon Petroleum and ConocoPhillips to deliver strong results when they report this week. Global oil and gas supplies are still tight from pandemic-era output cuts and the war in Ukraine. Now President Biden is urging Big Oil to boost production (and cut buybacks) ahead of winter.

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching...

Well, that was underwhelming… Tech stocks plunged last week after uninspiring third-quarter earnings. Google’s sales growth slowed big-time as ad spending sagged, while Meta’s revenue dropped for a second straight quarter (and profit plunged 52%). What really turned investors off: weak forecasts for this holiday quarter. Amazon expects sales to be up just 2% to 8% from last year (a major slowdown). As tech forecasts fall back to earth, investors are adjusting their expectations. Then again, lower expectations might mean less market disappointment.

Trick or treat… But retailers aren’t spooked by candy-flation. Go-tos like Walmart, Costco, and Lowe’s widened their spooky selection by about 20%. This year Halloween spend is expected to hit a record $10.6B ($2B more than prepandemic), with Americans paying an average of at least $100 for goodies like fun-size candy bags, pumpkin plates, and wacky wigs (FYI: Home Depot sold out of its viral $200 life-size skeleton in one day). Hershey is thriving on its sweet-and-salty strategy and expects Halloween candy to make up 10% of its annual sales.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

  • Jeezy: After 19 days of public backlash, Adidas ended its partnership with Kanye West’s Yeezy (nearly 10% of its revenue) after he made antisemitic statements. Balenciaga, Gap, Foot Locker, and CAA also dropped ties with West.
  • Zucked: It was a rough week for Meta, whose shares have plunged 28% after it reported "train wreck" earnings. Investors weren't sold on Zuck's vision of the metaverse, or the company’s $15B splurge on it.
  • Feast: YouTube star MrBeast is said to be seeking a $150M investment to boost his empire, from viral videos to Beast Burgers. VCs interested in access to his 107M+ YouTube subscribers may see it as "fans as a service.”

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Tweelon: Elon Musk completed his Twitter purchase, and then fired company execs including the CEO, CFO, top policy expert, and general counsel. The billionaire told advertisers the site wouldn't become a "hellscape," though GM’s already suspended its tweet ads.
  • CryptoStuff: Crypto is confusing, but what if it was… less so? Bloomberg reporter Matt Levine dropped a book-length explainer on all things crypto that could be quoted at cocktail parties for years to come.
  • WAO: Regulators charged a decentralized-crypto collab known as a DAO (picture: ants coordinating without a queen) with financial crimes, saying every member was liable. It could set an important crypto precedent.

This Week

  • Monday: Earnings expected from Aflac, NXP Semiconductors, ON Semiconductor, and Avis
  • Tuesday: Earnings expected from Eli Lilly, Pfizer, BP, AMD, Sony, Mondelez, Airbnb, Marathon Petroleum, Uber, Public Storage, and McKesson
  • Wednesday: The Fed’s interest-rate announcement. Earnings expected from Qualcomm, CVS, Booking, Estee Lauder, GSK, Humana, MetLife, Ferrari, Allstate, Yum! Brands, and eBay
  • Thursday: Jobless claims. Earnings expected from ConocoPhillips, Amgen, Starbucks, PayPal, Cigna, Regeneron, Moderna, Monster Beverage, Warner Bros Discovery, Block, Barrick Gold, Kellogg, and Live Nation
  • Friday: Earnings expected from Enbridge, Duke Energy, Dominion Energy, and DraftKings

Authors of this Snacks own: shares of Amazon, Block, Google, Microsoft, Walmart, Exxon, Starbucks, CVS, Moderna, Twitter, GM, and Uber

ID: 2564759

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.