Friday Dec.11, 2020

🍿 Airbnb & DoorDash's blockbuster IPOs

_When the DoorDash arrives at the Airbnb_
_When the DoorDash arrives at the Airbnb_

Hey Snackers,

Christie's is auctioning off a collection of Supreme T-shirts for $2M. How much is our laptop sticker worth?

Yesterday, an FDA panel recommended the approval of Pfizer and BioNTech's Covid-19 vaccine. This means the FDA will likely approve the vax for emergency use, possibly in a few days.

IPOs

IPO-Palooza: Airbnb and DoorDash soar on their first days as public stocks

That escalated quickly... If the stock market was Hollywood, this week would've been its Sundance Film Festival. Two famous tech platforms delivered back-to-back blockbuster IPOs in their debuts on the public market. BTW: the IPO price is what institutional investors (like mutual funds) — not regular investors like us — get to pay per share.

  • DoorDash: The IPO was priced at $102 a share. By the time shares hit the NYSE, they were already trading at $182. Now Dash has a $59B market value, more than 3X its June valuation.
  • Airbnb: It IPO'd at $68, but opened on the Nasdaq at $146. Its market value soared to over $100B, more than Marriott, Hilton, and Hyatt combined — and more than 5X its valuation in April.

Hungry for PDA ... Despite a pandemic and an economic crisis, 2020 has been a blockbuster year for IPOs overall. We whipped up two explanations for the IPO-palooza:

  • Stock-timism: The stock market is at record highs, with tech stocks leading the charge. The Nasdaq Index is up 36% this year — tech companies want to strike while the market is hot.
  • Zoom life: Banks are able to execute IPOs faster — Zoom pitches have replaced physical roadshows.

Don't forget interest rates... Stocks have rallied to record highs partly because interest rates are at record lows (shout-out: the Fed). Super low interest rates can inflate the value of assets like stocks, because they make things like savings accounts seem less attractive. If the APY on your savings account is higher, you're less likely to invest in stocks, which carry risk. If the interest rate is nearly nothing, you're probably more likely to invest, driving up stock prices.

Iced

Starbucks stock soars to an all-time high on the Return of the Routine

Cold brew coming in hot... Most important update from Starbucks' investor day: Pumpkin Cream Cold Brew outsold the infamous Pumpkin Spice Latte. Second most important update: oat milk is going nationwide (expect a brown sugar + iced espress-oat concoction). The non-drinkable update: Starbs is planning to open 22K+ new stores in the next ten years, to hit 55K total by 2030.

Not all Starbs are created equal... For Starbucks, there's no such thing as a one-size-fits-all store approach. For an urban hotspot, your typical ~1K ft cafe might be too small. For other neighborhoods, a ballroom-sized Starbucks Reserve might be too big (only for Java snobs). So Starbucks is "canvassing," whipping up different cafes for different needs:

  • Drive-thrus: Expect more of these, especially in the burbs. Starbs sales have migrated outside of the city as people move home.
  • "Walk-thrus": Order in-app, pay in advance, walk in, and grab. Expect these to pop up in dense city centers.

Our 1st glimpse at "The Return of the Routine"... Starbucks' investor day was majorly focused on looking beyond the corona-conomy. The CEO believes caffeine lovers will flock back to cafes once the pandemic is over, and Starbs' investment in thousands of new stores shows he means it. Starbucks is banking on a return to routine.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Mickey: Disney stock hit an all-time high on news that Disney+ has ~87M subscribers. It expects 230M to 260M by 2024.
  • Lulu: Lululemon flexed expectation-beating quarterly earnings — sales jumped 22% from last year on the athleisure life.
  • Fluffy: Hyundai is reportedly buying Boston Dynamics (the company that makes Spot robot dogs) for more than $900M.
  • Reelin: Instagram launches shopping in its TikTok copycat Reels, the day after the "break up Facebook" lawsuit (awk).
  • Drive: Uber asks states to prioritize its ride-hail and delivery drivers for Covid-19 vaccine access.

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Friday

  • Consumer sentiment index released.

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Uber and Disney

ID: 1445498

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.