Tuesday Sep.10, 2019

Uber Freight's $200M, 2K-person, Chicago surprise

_"What do I have to do to get you in this Uber Freight?"_
_"What do I have to do to get you in this Uber Freight?"_

Hey Snackers,

Hedge fund icon Ray Dalio is still making his way back from Burning Man (tie-dye fur coat included).

For the rest of us, all eyes are staring at Apple's keynote stage for its annual product unveil — here's how to watch on your soon-to-be-inferior phone.

Sip

Starbucks is whipping up its 1st pickup-only store — that's a big deal

No talky until coffee... Starbucks is making it possible — CEO Kevin Johnson sat down with Bloomberg to reveal a pick-up only store is in the works for NYC this fall. Picture NASCAR pit stop meets barista nightmare — Starbucks is targeting "people on the go" (aka all humans in Manhattan) because even pre-orders face lines lately. Other key deets:

  • The where: If NYC goes well, Starbucks will export the concept to LA, BOS, CHI, SEA, and SF.
  • The what: PSL, coconut milk lattes, frapp-a-anything — you name it, pickup-only Starbucks serves it.
  • The $$$: Pickup-only could become Starbucks' #ProfitPuppy — Coffee sales will bring in the same revenues, but at lower costs (less real estate & employees).

If the Starbucks mobile app had feelings... this would be its dream. The pick-up concept blends deliciously with the Starbucks app's growth — usage has surged to hit 2 shocking numbers:

  • 17.2M = that's how many Americans use the app
  • 40% = that's how much of Starbucks' sales came from app orders (QR-code for the win)

American companies are now inspired by Chinese ones... This wouldn't be Starbucks' 1st pickup location — it launched the same concept in China last summer as "Starbucks Now." It made that move because local Chinese rival Luckin Coffee pioneered the concept across the Great Wall, jumping to 3K locations in under 2 years (Starbucks is barely higher at 4K China stores). It's an early example of American retail copying Chinese competition.

Ship

Uber invests big in "Freight" — the Uber for pallets of stuff in tractor-trailers

Freight just brought sexy back... Uber wants to make trucking its next profit puppy. Just like ride-hailing, Uber Freight connects drivers (of 18-wheelers) with riders (Budweiser's beer kegs or Land O'Lakes' stacks of butter). Uber just announced that Freight is its fastest-growing business line, so it's investing more in a big way:

  • Cash: Uber's Freight line will get a $200M investment each year.
  • Personnel: Uber's hiring 2K people at its future 2nd-biggest location (and the only other one besides SF that gets engineers) — Chicago = Freight HQ.
  • Perks: To sign up new truck drivers to the gig-for-cargo platform, it's offering discounts on gas, free tires (but seriously — tractor-trailers need 18 of 'em), and cash bonuses.

Uber's spending money to stop losing money... It lost a gargantuan $5B last quarter (the last 3 months), and loses $3.36 each time someone delivers an Uber Eats meal. It's funneling money away from marketing (it laid off 400 this summer in that dep't) and toward this growing bet.

Freight has to be different than the rest of Uber... Uber's 3 non-Freight divisions — rides, bikes/scooters, and Eats — all face copycat competition. Without barriers to entry to creating an app platform, Lyft, DoorDash, and others keep prices low and competition fierce. Uber must find a way to prevent an Amazon Freight or Lyft Trailer from becoming a thing.

Haters

AT&T gets an "open letter" from a hedge fund to basically change everything

Haters gonna hate... Only some release a 23-page open letter about it. Hedge fund Elliott Management just sent one to AT&T after splurging $3.2B for a 1.2% stake in the telecom giant. The letter's core theme: Change (almost) everything. Here's how to interpret the Real Housewives-style takedown:

  • It's not personal, AT&T: Elliott has "tremendous respect for the Company’s legacy."
  • But there's a problem: Over the last 10 years, the broader market (the S&P 500) has risen 193% — but AT&T only rose 42%.
  • So it's time for a makeover: Specifically, cut the CEO and the board – Elliot thinks that “this is the moment to determine the right team for the next decade.”
  • Take the free advice and everyone wins: The fund thinks its proposals could push up AT&T stock by 65% in 2 years.
  • FYI, the fund doesn't own enough stock to force AT&T management to listen — but shares jumped because investors hope it does.

Here's the problem... There are a lot of problems facing AT&T. The hedge fund spent pages 2-23 covering them.

  • The botched iPhone: AT&T enjoyed exclusive rights to sell iPhones when they launched — but its poor service quality ended that.
  • The identity crisis: Verizon snagged the high-end wireless market while T-Mobile/Sprint grabbed the low-end — AT&T was awkwardly left in the middle.
  • The brutal acquisitions: AT&T has dropped a hefty $200B on them the last few years — it bought DirecTV at its peak, and satellite TV has only lost subscribers since.

AT&T is a tech company led by landline guys... That's the biggest issue. The current CEO has run things for 12 years, and the newly-promoted COO's telecom roots go back to 1998. But now AT&T is a tech media company that owns streaming tech and HBO — that means it competes directly with Netflix. Elliott wants leadership to be more iPhone, less landline.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Hangry: Wendy's ups its breakfast game to nationwide next year, but it lowers its profit projections
  • Grounded: British Airways is cancelling almost every single flight at the start of this week because of a pilot strike (but seriously, don't bother going to the airport)
  • Partnered: Spotify users can now share their music and podcasts to Snapchat
  • Groovy: Volkswagen goes back to its older, simpler logo (look sharp, drive sharp)
  • Resumés: Amazon wants 'em — it's hiring 30K when "Amazon Career Day" hits on 9/17. Like Prime Day, but for job offers
  • App'd: Apple is handicapping its own apps within the App Store because they were coming up too high in search results (we covered it in this podcast)

Tuesday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Luckin Coffee, Volkswagen, and Amazon

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Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

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Tech

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.

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The US now buys more goods from Mexico than from China

Chinese imports are down as companies begin to "nearshore" in Mexico

2024-04-22-paramount-global-site

Multiple bidders want to buy Paramount Global’s sprawling media assets

Junk

How much of the world’s plastic is recycled? Only a fraction

Landfills still account for the majority of plastic disposal

Markets

Stock market gains for 2024 cut by more than half

All of the sudden, the stock market seems to be running out of steam.

There’s no big mystery here. War in the Mideast has pushed up oil prices, which will help keep inflation elevated. And annoyingly high price increases in March have already pushed the June Fed rate cuts the market was banking on farther into the uncertain future.

All that’s added up to higher interest rates and lower stock prices.