Tuesday Jan.17, 2023

🐙 Amazon’s octopus moment

Prime from all? (Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
Prime from all? (Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Because our backs aren’t messed up enough from hunching over computers, Apple is reportedly working on adding touch screens to Macs. Steve Jobs once called the idea “ergonomically terrible.”

Stocks surged and the techy Nasdaq had its best week since November. Investors were heartened by news that inflation cooled for the sixth straight month in December, with prices notching their largest month-over-month decrease since April 2020.

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Amazon’s “Buy with Prime” button on non-Amazon sites could be an actual game changer

The dreaded checkout page… Say you find a new online shop for neon sneakers. You might abandon the cool kicks in your cart if you’re too lazy to fill in your credit-card info (or if you don’t trust the retailer with delivery). Enter Amazon: it’ll widely roll out its “Buy with Prime” feature to third-party merchants this month.

  • Merchants that don’t sell on Amazon (think: your fave swimsuit site) can leverage the ecomm giant’s payment, fulfillment, and delivery services.
  • Less #friction: Amazon said BWP increased shopper conversion rate by an average of 25%, meaning fewer people abandoned their carts when buying with Prime was an option.
  • Prime members get the benefits of Amazon’s speedy payment and free next-day delivery on non-Amazon sites. FYI: Last year, Prime went up from $119 to $139/year.
  • Amazon gets more $$ (it charges merchants to use BWP). It said payment processing, fulfillment, and storage fees can vary by inventory.

No longer in its prime… The new revenue from Buy with Prime is a welcome addition as Amazon deals with slowing sales growth in its core retail and cloud businesses. The pandemic boom has died down, and it recently made its largest round of layoffs. The company’s also faced growing regulatory backlash over how it uses customer data to compete with third-party sellers (think: making a cheaper Amazon Basics version of a popular product). Psst: Amazon will still collect data from those who use Buy with Prime.

This could be Amazon’s octopus moment… BWP could make Amazon even more ubiquitous than it already is, allowing it to widely spread its retail tentacles beyond its platform. It’s also a major threat to ecomm payment titans like Shopify and PayPal. Shopify has reportedly told merchants that are trying to install the BWP button that it violates its terms of service. Amazon has the household edge: a recent survey found it to be the most trusted retailer in America.

Events

Coming up this week

Like a coming-of-age flick... Netflix is going through changes. Last year, the streamer lost 1.2M subscribers over two quarters and saw its stock drop by half. Now it’s trying to drum up fresh revenue and subs with its cheaper ad-supported tier, which launched in November. Investors hope a turnaround is coming: the stock is up ~90% over the past six months as Netflix bolsters its ad biz and cracks down on password mooching. Efforts might be paying off: analysts expect the streamer to announce strong subscriber growth when it reports on Thursday.

Aisle all-stars… The company behind household staples like Tide, Charmin, Crest, and Head & Shoulders shampoo was in the money last year, with price hikes helping Procter & Gamble beat sales and profit expectations. But now higher transportation and materials costs may be taking their toll on P&G's bottom line. What's more, execs expect lofty costs will continue into this year. The Ohio-based company is expected to reveal declines in sales and profits this week.

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching

Non-compete clauses… could become non-existent. The Federal Trade Commission proposed a rule that would end legal agreements that keep workers from switching to rival companies after leaving their jobs. From C-suite execs to security guards, nearly 30M US workers are under non-compete agreements, and breaches can lead to pricey fines and lawsuits. Meanwhile, workers who do comply can miss out on higher pay and better working conditions. A ban could boost US wages by nearly $300B/year and help close the racial and gender pay gaps.

Adding insult to injury… there’s more trouble for crypto lenders. Last week the SEC charged Gemini and Genesis with selling unregistered securities through their lending program. The crypto cos had offered returns (aka yield) as high as 8% via Gemini Earn — then it went south. Before it went bankrupt, BlockFi paid $100M after the SEC said its interest-bearing accounts were unregistered securities. Going forward, crypto lenders may be forced to register their products as securities or face the costly consequences.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights

  • GPT: Microsoft’s reportedly in talks to invest $10B into OpenAI, the company behind viral genAI tools like ChatGPT and DALL-E. It could incorporate the AI tech into its search engine, Bing, or its Office software.

  • Augment: Apple could (finally) launch its mixed-reality headset this year, which would position it against rivals like Meta’s Quest VR. But the reality of success for pricey face gadgets looks iffy.

  • CEO: As the US’s fastest-growing group of entrepreneurs, Black women are increasingly leaving corporate roles to launch their own companies — but funding challenges are hampering growth.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Bots: Chatbots got a GPT boost with a website called Character.AI offering up convos in the style of celebs like Elon Musk and dead authors. But its creators say the AI avatars can get things very wrong.
  • TikJob: TikTok is becoming a recruiting tool for companies trying to lure Gen Z candidates. Influencers (and social media in general) are playing a growing role in hiring efforts.
  • SBF’d: Before FTX imploded, Sam Bankman-Fried invested $1B in a bitcoin miner in Kazakhstan. Now it’s one of the largest assets in FTX's bankruptcy. Meanwhile, BTC-mining-biz valuations have tanked.

This Week

  • Monday: US markets closed for MLK Day
  • Tuesday: Earnings expected from United Airlines, Goldman Sachs, Silvergate Capital, Citizens Bank, and Morgan Stanley
  • Wednesday: Earnings expected from Charles Schwab, Prologis, and JB Hunt
  • Thursday: Jobless claims. Earnings expected from Netflix and Procter & Gamble
  • Friday: Earnings expected from Ericsson, Ally Financial, and State Street

Authors of this Snacks own bitcoin and shares: of Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Shopify

ID: 2680611

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Latest Stories

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

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Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.