Thursday Jul.29, 2021

🧊 Starbucks' cold-brewed quarter

_Tapitha working her nitro magic [FluxFactory/E+ via GettyImages]_
_Tapitha working her nitro magic [FluxFactory/E+ via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Dubai has already made a ski mountain indoors, put a police force in Lamborghinis, and dropped influencers in the desert. Now, the lavish city is using laser drones to make it rain.

Stocks ticked down from their records, after the Fed hinted it's getting closer to rolling back its economy-reviving money policies. But the techy Nasdaq jumped ahead of more strong tech earnings.

Frappy

Starbucks brewed up a record quarter, thanks to drive-thrus, Cold Brew, and a secret frappe lab

Meet the old crew for a Cold Brew... People are meeting for coffee again, lines are back at Starbucks, and Linda still can't decide if she wants the egg white bite or the cake pop. Starbucks had its best third quarter revenue ever, whipping up $7.5B in sales — up a frothy 78% from last year. And same-store sales jumped 10% from even pre-pandemic levels.

  • To-go is a lifestyle: Nearly half of all transactions came from drive-thru, and over a quarter came from mobile orders for pickup and delivery.
  • Go oat or go home: Alt-milks accounted for 25% of total milk-related bev sales, thanks to drinks like Iced Brown Sugar Oatmilk Shaken Espresso.

Too cold to handle... One theme stood out to us from Starbs' earnings: iced drinks are hot commodities. Cold drinks accounted for nearly three-quarters of total sales, up 10% from two years ago. Now, Starbucks is doubling down on the chill factor, since cold concoctions tend to be more profitable than plain old cups of Joe:

  • Cold science: Starbs has a lab where it develops tech like “Tapitha" (cute), the system that cranks out its Nitro Cold Brews.
  • Cold menus: In May, Starbs launched the “As Summer As Possible” (ASAP) menu, featuring premium cold drinks like the $5.25 Strawberry Funnel Cake Frappuccino.

Daily habits are a gold mine... Starbs already owns one of the most reliable routines: the morning java run. Rewards members accounted for more than half of Starbucks' US sales last quarter. Now Starbucks is focused on milking more $$$ out of routines with premium upgrades. First, it was fancy breakfast sandwiches (shoutout Turkey Bacon & Egg White). Then, it was alt-milk drinks featuring Oatly. Decked-out cold drinks, like the Mango Dragonfruit Refresher, are the latest premium push.

Fried

The chip shortage is a buzzkill for Big Tech — but what about chip companies?

Seeing the chip bowl half empty… Tesla reported record profit and deliveries for last quarter. Apple posted its best third quarter in its entire 45-year history. Despite these killer earnings, investors weren’t impressed: Tesla shares have fallen 3% since earnings, and Apple has dipped 1.5%. Why investors are feeling salty:

  • Apple and Tesla are the latest victims of the global chip shortage, which has been affecting the supply of everything from smartphones to washing machines and cars.
  • Apple warned that supply shortages will affect iPhone production this quarter, slowing overall sales growth. Technoking Elon raised concerns that Cybertruck production could be dinged by the chip shortage.

Chip-outta-luck... The WFH life ate up all the chips, which are crucial ingredients in everything from Chromebooks, to PlayStations, and cloud servers. When the economy rebounded faster than expected, the chip shortage got shorter — Ford and GM even had to shut down car-making plants. But for chip-makers, it’s more of a “bowl half-full” situation:

  • Intel reported expectation-beating earnings thanks to growing sales of PC chips, and raised its forecast for the year. Its CEO warned the shortage could last till 2023.
  • AMD, another chip giant, saw its quarterly profit more than quadruple compared to last year, and it also boosted its full-year forecast.

High demand isn’t always a good thing… Especially when it’s shortage-induced. You’d think chipmakers would be rejoicing. Instead, they’re struggling to crank out chips fast enough to meet demand. Just like companies are hankering for chips, chip makers are hankering for chip components. And many are paying extra for scarce chip materials, which can cut into profits.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Slowdown: Facebook's sales jumped 56% last quarter from a year ago, the fastest quarterly growth in five years — but Zuck warned of a big slowdown ahead.
  • Jabs: Pfizer expects $33.5 billion in Covid vax sales this year, up 30% from its previous forecast. Last quarter, the vax made up nearly $8B of its $19B total sales.
  • VaxOn: Google and Facebook will require vaccinations for all employees returning to US offices. Meanwhile, Uncle Sam will require vax shots or frequent tests for federal employees.
  • Moody: Spotify shares fell 6% after the streamer reported weak monthly user growth, despite expectation-beating earnings and strong ad growth.
  • Checkout: Shopify topped $1B in quarterly sales for the first time as the ecomm boom keeps booming. Small businesses that moved online mid-pandemic are staying virtual.

Thursday

  • Weekly jobless claims
  • Earnings expected from Amazon, Mastercard, Comcast, T-Mobile, Bud-owner AB Inbev, Twilio, Shell, PG&E, and Zendesk

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Starbucks and Tesla

ID: 1741090

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing the US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, that means that Uncle Sam loses more than two cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th-straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
Business
Rani Molla
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Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.