Monday Jan.11, 2021

🛑 Big Tech blocks Trump

_Twitter employee with the kill switch: "It's done"_
_Twitter employee with the kill switch: "It's done"_

Hey Snackers,

The most surprising Millennial rebrand of the decade: the CIA's new website, which is looking like a direct-to-consumer spy company.

Stocks ended the 1st week of 2021 at record highs, despite a shocking attack on the US Capitol. Investors were hopeful about the prospect of a newly Democrat-controlled Congress, which boosts the likelihood of more stimulus.

#Blocked

Big Tech excommunicates President Trump — and Twitter bans him permanently

Still reeling... The nation was shaken Wednesday, when pro-Trump rioters stormed the US Capitol building, temporarily halting the certification of Joe Biden’s Electoral College win. Five people died during the attack, including a US Capitol Police officer. Trump was widely criticized for stoking the insurrection, which struck at the cornerstone of American democracy. While the riot received bipartisan condemnation, Big Tech took unprecedented action...

  • Twitter went the furthest, permanently banning Trump and removing his tweet history. It cited the risk that he could incite further violence (against Twitter Rules).
  • Facebook locked Trump's FB and Insta accounts at least until January 20th (aka: Biden's inauguration) — and potentially indefinitely.
  • Google and Apple removed Parler, a right-wing-friendly “free speech” app, from their app stores. Then, Amazon said it would no longer host Parler on its AWS cloud.
  • Shopify permanently took down Trump's campaign merch store, while Paypal deactivated an account that raised money for Trump supporters, some of whom traveled to the Capitol.
  • Snap locked Trump's account, while Amazon's Twitch indefinitely banned Trump's streaming channel.

Wall Street's two cents ... Twitter stock fell 5% for the week, even though the moves are likely to win Big Tech goodwill with the newly Democrat-controlled government (Dems have criticized Twitter for not moderating enough). More goodwill = potentially less regulation and Congressional grillings. But Twitter investors seemed concerned that the Trump ban could reduce usage and ad sales.

The immense power and responsibility of Big Tech has never been clearer... First: in allowing misinformation to spread, bad actors to organize, and nearly anyone to have a huge platform. Second: in taking away that voice and reach in a matter of seconds, from a figure as significant as the US president. These tech bans are a reminder that a company like Twitter, with just 5K employees, wields disproportionate influence over world events. They also set a precedent for how the public will expect them to intervene moving forward.

Highs

Who's up...

Diamonds on my (block)chain... Bitcoin topped $40K for the first time last week, more than doubling in a month. The epic rally was partly driven by institutional FOMO: companies like banks and hedge funds have been pouring into the crypto coin. Mainstream investors, who have more access to bitcoin than ever through fintech apps, also took part in the rally. While bitcoin tends to be volatile (read: crash-prone), some see it as a hedge against inflation: bitcoin's supply is capped at 21M coins, while the Fed’s money printers have been blasting out $$$ to stimulate the economy.

Clean juice cleanse... Electric vehicles had a moment last week with a flurry of milestones. Nio, the so-called "Tesla of China," said its 2020 deliveries more than doubled from a year ago to ~44K. Tesla (the "Tesla of Tesla") delivered a record-breaking ~500K cars last year. Meanwhile in Norway, electric cars outsold gas and hybrid models for the first time in 2020. In the UK, EV sales nearly tripled while total auto sales hit the lowest level since 1992.

Lows

...and who's down

I sink, therefore I am... While the S&P 500 was busy hitting record highs, Carnival dropped the anchor. Shares of the world's largest cruise company fell 5% for the week, after three of Carnival's cruise lines pushed back sail dates to follow government protocols. Still, the cruise operator seems upbeat about its advanced bookings for 2021, and the stock has rallied 50% since November. BTW: Carnival is dropping earnings today — analysts are expecting sales to be down a whopping 97% from last year.

Hitting reverse... The pace of jobs recovery has been slowing for months, but now the US is actually losing jobs again: the US economy shed 140K jobs in December, the first monthly net loss since April. Hospitality accounted for most of that as Covid cases surged. Bars and restaurants got hit hardest, losing nearly 400K positions as California banned outdoor dining. The unemployment rate remained flat from November at 6.7% (nearly double the pre-pandemic rate). But investors shrugged off the report, looking ahead to vaccines and more stimulus.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Do: How to stop letting your phone rewire your brain for distractions, and other habits to drop in 2021.
  • Move: Thinking of moving? Some US cities will pay you $10K to relocate.
  • Work: Why you need an "Untouchable Day" every week.
  • Check: Here's what you need to know if you received "Status Unavailable" when checking on your second stimulus payment.
  • Focus: An online pomodoro timer to boost your productivity (tomato-style).
  • Think: Why you should talk to yourself in the third person — and finally take your own advice.

This Week

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Shopify, Apple, Amazon, Google, Tesla, and Snap

ID: 1473118

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Latest Stories

$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales