Tuesday Sep.13, 2022

🍎 Goldman’s Apple Card problem

The IOUs are racking up (Michael Short/Getty Images)
The IOUs are racking up (Michael Short/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Elon Musk’s college sweetheart is auctioning off Musk mementos. A card reading "Happy Birthday, Jennifer (aka, Boo-Boo)" is expected to sell for over $10K. Moral: keep letters from your ex… if your ex is Elon Musk.

Stocks popped yesterday for the fourth straight trading day as investors grew more optimistic that inflation has peaked. (FYI: August inflation #s come out today.) Energy stocks led the rally as oil rebounded.

IOU

Goldman’s Apple Card biz has a shockingly high loss rate on credit card loans — and it could get worse

Charging the iPhone to my Apple Card... seamless. Paying it off on time: not so much. Goldman Sachs’ Apple Card biz has a bad-credit problem, according to competitor JPMorgan. In 2019 the investment-banking giant triumphed over established card companies to become Apple's card issuer. The sleek no-fee card generated hype, with early users posting pics of their names etched in Apple titanium. Some expressed shock they'd been approved. Now we know why:

  • Credit karma: Over a quarter of Goldman’s card loans have gone to customers with credit scores under 660 (aka: fair to poor).
  • The WOAT: Goldman’s loss rate on credit-card loans is the worst among major US card issuers and “well above subprime lenders," JPM said.
  • The GOAT: Thanks to pandemic stimulus and rising wages, rivals like Bank of America have seen repayments rise near record levels.

DJ D-Sol in the hot seat... Goldman CEO David Solomon, who moonlights as an EDM DJ, is under pressure to produce profits at Goldman's consumer-facing biz (which makes up 18% of its total revenue). The Wall Street-centric bank expanded to consumers in 2016 with its high-yield Marcus savings account. Then Apple Card supercharged its retail reach. Now:

  • Growing revenue: Goldman's consumer-banking biz grew revenue 25% last quarter, with 14M customers and $16B in loan balances.
  • Growing losses: The consumer division is on track to lose $1.2B this year, and Goldman has been forced to set aside more reserves in case of future loan losses.

Cracks emerge in a downturn… and they could cause a quake. With inflation at a 40-year high and unemployment ticking up, the weakest American borrowers are starting to miss loan payments. Goldman execs have acknowledged that its consumer biz could lose even more than $1.2B if a deep recession forces them to set aside more $$ for defaulted loans. Banks with more subprime exposure will feel the hit first.

NFTea

Starbucks launches NFT-powered rewards, leveraging loyal sippers to enter web3

Enter the Mocha-verse… Cold brew’s coming to the blockchain. Yesterday Starbucks introduced a loyalty program powered by non-fungible tokens called “Starbucks Odyssey.” Odyssey will be powered by Polygon, a proof-of-stake "sidechain" that aims to make ethereum transactions cheaper and faster. Polygon’s native token, matic, jumped 5% on the Starbs news.

  • A journey: Odyssey will extend Starbs’ popular rewards program, enabling latte lovers to earn NFTs (called “stamps”) by completing “journeys.” Think: java-inspired games.
  • Peppier perks: Users can redeem stamps for exclusive experiences like virtual espresso-martini-making classes and trips to Costa Rican coffee farms.
  • Brewing up community: Odyssey users can also buy and sell limited-edition stamps.

Spill the NFTea… Last year NFT sales boomed with high crypto prices. But since then the NFT industry has struggled:

  • Trading volume on top NFT marketplace OpenSea has plunged 99% from its May peak. An NFT of Twitter founder Jack Dorsey’s first-ever tweet recently got a top bid of $280 (not a typo) — after selling for $2.9M last year.
  • Getting practical: As sales have slumped, some companies have rolled out “practical” NFT applications: Ticketmaster uses them to verify tickets and prevent resale scams, and eBay’s embraced them to authenticate its goods.

Loyal customers make it easier to innovate… After Starbucks combined its existing payment system with new mobile-ordering tech in 2015, loyal latte-sippers happily adopted the tech to earn rewards — and made Starbucks the top mobile payment platform (it’s now second to Apple Pay, with 31M users). Starbs could become a top player in web3's tokenized future, if customers embrace its new NFT features.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Track: Two of the US’s largest railroad unions are threatening to strike if workers aren’t given better working conditions. Because trains carry nearly 40% of long-distance trade, a strike could wreak supply havoc.
  • Wi-Fi: Google’s spinning out its satellite-internet startup (dubbed: Aalyria) but is keeping a minority stake. The search giant joins other tech biggies looking beyond ad sales for revenue growth.
  • Fight: Twitter pushed back against Elon Musk's (third) attempt to back out of his $44B takeover offer. Twitter shareholders will vote today on whether to approve a Musk-quisition.
  • Chic: Hilton's new boutique-hotel brand made its Time Square debut as Broadway visitors near prepandemic levels. It’s part of Hilton's $2.5B plan to revamp the theater district's entertainment options.
  • Slash: Universal Studios Beijing is cutting staff (again) as China’s zero-Covid policy continues to shrink visitor #s. It’s not just theme parks: China’s tourism revenue fell 28% in the first half of the year from last.

Tuesday

  • August inflation numbers released
  • Earnings expected from Core & Main

Authors of this Snacks own: ethereum and matic and shares of Apple, Google, Starbucks, and Twitter

ID: 2421584

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World

Tangential remarks

Nicolai Tangen, the CEO who holds the purse strings of Norway’s $1.6 trillion sovereign wealth fund, thinks that his fellow Europeans don’t quite stack up to US employees when it comes to pure hustle, telling the Financial Times in a recent interview that there is a difference in “the general level of ambition” and that “the Americans just work harder”. 

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked
Power

$2T is the new $1T

Alphabet’s phenomenal earnings yesterday was enough to push the search giant’s market cap beyond $2 trillion, joining the likes of NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft.

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$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

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Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

 Max Holloway and Mark Zuckerberg

Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

Rani Molla4/25/24
Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).