Wednesday Oct.26, 2022

👟 Kanye’s fashion fallout

Business with Yeezy isn’t easy (Jonathan Leibson/Getty Images)
Business with Yeezy isn’t easy (Jonathan Leibson/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

This is Halloween, this is Halloween… but the only nightmare before Christmas is candy-flation: prices of spooky-season favorites like Twix and Skittles are up over 40% from last year.

Stocks surged for a third day ahead of big tech earnings, with the Nasdaq finishing up 2.2%. After the close, Microsoft narrowly beat expectations while Google disappointed (both stocks dropped).

Ye-ouch

Adidas finally ends its lucrative partnership with Kanye’s Yeezy, exposing the flip side of collabs

Yeezy out… After 19 days and a storm of backlash, Adidas has cut ties with Kanye West, ending his billionaire status. The rapper and Yeezy founder has faced public criticism (even from his ex Kim K) after making antisemitic comments, among other offensive statements. Over the weekend in LA, West’s outbursts emboldened neo-Nazi activists to stage anti-Jewish protests. Now Adidas is ending production of Yeezy products and stopping all payments to Ye.

  • Going back: Since launching in 2013, Adidas’ Yeezy partnership has raked in $2B in annual sales (about 10% of Adidas’ revenue).
  • Going forward: This year alone Adidas expects to lose $246M — and next year could lose $400M.

Ye’s corporate catastrophe… As West’s reputation grows increasingly unstable, other partners are cutting ties too. This month, luxe fashion house Balenciaga ended its collab with West, and talent agency CAA also dropped him. Last month, West's lawyers sent a letter to Gap with plans to terminate his 10-year deal (which had been on track to become a billion-dollar brand). It’s not the first time businesses have been burned by celeb ties:

  • In 2009, Tiger Woods lost $50M in sponsorship deals after his extramarital-affairs scandal.
  • Last year, mega beauty influencer James Charles reportedly lost millions in sales after cosmetics brand Morphe dropped him over sexual-misconduct allegations.

You are who you’re linked to… Bad news for celebrities often means bad news for the companies that profit off them. While lots of A-list partnerships have helped sales skyrocket, there’s always the risk a celeb could burn their reputations. Kanye’s fallout is another example of how having close ties to celebrities isn’t always a stable biz model.

Reality

Investors aren’t sold on Meta’s VR ambitions ahead of its earnings report today

Earnings call in the metaverse… Not quite there yet. All eyes are on Meta, which reports today after the bell. In its June quarter, Zuck’s dorm-room baby had its first-ever drop in revenue since going public as ad sales sagged. While users ticked up, profit tanked 36%. Expectations are low today:

  • Sales slump: Analysts expect Meta’s quarterly revenue to come in around $27.5B, which would represent a 5% drop from last year.
  • Profit hit: As Meta splurges billions on its meta-ambitions, analysts expect a 42% profit plunge, on average.
  • Since expectations are so low and wide ranging, an earnings surprise could boost Meta stock, which this year is down 60% (the S&P 500 is down “only” 20%).

Does the metaverse have legs?... Meta’s avatars still don’t. Meta’s motion-capture leg teaser may be the perfect metaphor for its current conundrum. After spending $15B+ on its meta-revamp, Meta’s struggling to attract users (and even its own employees) to its flagship Horizon Worlds. A few barriers:

  • Empty worlds: Horizon Worlds users have been declining since spring, and it now has fewer than 200K, according to documents seen by The Wall Street Journal. Most visitors don’t return after the first month, and most “worlds” are never visited.
  • Empty wallets: Horizon Worlds is accessible only through Meta’s pricey Quest VR headsets. Its $1.5K headset may not be the most #relatable Hanukkah gift, but Meta says it plans to expand Worlds to web and mobile.

It appears that investors aren’t sold… on what Meta says is its biggest selling point: the meta-future. This week, major Meta shareholder Altimeter Capital published a critical letter saying the company should slash headcount expenses by 20% and curb meta-investment to $5B/year max. Meta says its vision will take years to realize, but investors aren’t convinced that it should shift attention from its OG social apps, which have 3.5B+ monthly users combined.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Query: Google’s not feeling lucky: the search giant’s quarterly sales growth slowed to 6% from 41% last year as ad spending sagged and YouTube faced fierce competition from TikTok. Profits also disappointed.
  • Pickup: Call it cruise control: GM crushed Wall Street’s quarterly profit predictions and fell just shy on sales. But it stuck to its original forecast because of “headwinds” like inflation.
  • Grow: Canadian cannabis colossus Canopy Growth is launching Canopy USA to speed up its US debut. The American cannabis market’s expected to hit $50B by 2026, even though the green stuff still isn’t federally legal.
  • Fizz: Soda sales are anything but flat: Coke raised its full-year outlook after reporting a surprisingly bubbly sales bump. To address inflation’s squeeze, Coke’s hiking some prices and lowering others.
  • Soft: Microsoft’s forecast = partly cloudy. The software juggernaut narrowly beat sales and profit expectations, but key cloud revenue was lower than expected while guidance disappointed.

Wednesday

  • Earnings expected from Meta, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boeing, Ford, Kraft Heinz Co.

Authors of this Snacks own: shares of Canopy Growth, Google, GM, Microsoft, and Ford

ID: 2557037

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Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing the US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, that means that Uncle Sam loses more than two cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th-straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

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Business

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.

Tech

Meta’s not telling where it got its AI training data

Today Meta unleashed its ChatGPT competitor, Meta AI, across its apps and as a standalone. The company boasts that it is running on its latest, greatest AI model, Llama 3, which was trained on “data of the highest quality”! A dataset seven times larger than Llama2! And includes 4 times more code!

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

Today’s earnings: Who’s making money edition

Here are some some notable numbers out this morning, as earnings season gathers steam. Thursday’s main event will be Netflix after the close of trading. (Keep an eye on its advertising business.) But until then...

7.13%

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is back above 7%, according to weekly numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the highest level in four months. High borrowing costs are creating havoc for would-be buyers, as affordability lingers at the low levels not seen consistently since the late 1980s.

Business
Rani Molla
4/18/24

Amazon’s spy ops on rivals: shell companies, printed docs, and a fake Japanese streetwear brand

Some companies check out rivals’ websites, stores and public filings to stay abreast of the competition. Amazon made its own fake shell company and brands, transacted hundreds of thousands of dollars per year undercover on competitors’ platforms, and kept its intel operation a secret for nearly a decade even from others at Amazon, according to a fascinating investigation by the Wall Street Journal.

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Crypto
Jack Morse
4/17/24

Worldcoin pivots to the blockchain… with a 'humans only' discount

Worldcoin, the “proof of personhood” crypto project launched by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, said it plans to launch its own ethereum layer-2 (L2) blockchain dubbed World Chain. The pitch: a blockchain where it’s both easier and cheaper for people to transact than bots.

Worldcoin has made waves for its iris-scanning metallic orb that promises a future where people can mathematically prove they’re real humans and not AI bots.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.