Monday Mar.07, 2022

⚡What Russian oil means for energy independence

The Three Mile Island nuclear plant, which closed in 2019 (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)
The Three Mile Island nuclear plant, which closed in 2019 (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

It’s day 12 of Russia’s war on Ukraine: Russian troops continue to advance toward Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and its main shipping port, Odessa. Many soldiers and civilians have been killed, including children, but the total number has been difficult to verify. At least 1M refugees have fled Ukraine so far.

In the US, stocks fell for the fourth week despite a stronger-than-expected February jobs report. Investors are worried that the war’s shock to energy markets could push prices even higher.

Fuel

Western leaders underscore the urgency of energy independence as Russia’s war escalates

Low energy, high stakes... Western countries have piled on financial sanctions to punish Russia. One thing they haven’t touched: energy exports. Oil makes up a third of Russia’s economy, and the West is still buying its oil and gas. Here’s why:

  • Europe depends on Russia for 41% of its gas supply. The EU has focused on transitioning to renewables like hydro, wind, and solar — but those cover less than a fifth of its energy needs.
  • The US is the world's top oil producer (one-fifth of global supply), and doesn't get much from Russia. But it’s also the largest oil consumer, using up even more than it produces (think: long drives, big trucks, blasting A/C).

Declaration of (energy) independence... So far, sanctions haven't slowed Russia's attack. But if the West stopped buying Russian fuel, it could crush Russia’s economy. The problem: the West can't sanction Russian energy without also crushing Europe’s supply. Germany, which is most dependent on Russia, said its lights “will go out.” In the US, gas prices could soar even higher. Cue:

  • The West’s focus is shifting to energy independence — when a country produces enough fuel to meet its own needs and eliminates foreign reliance.
  • The EU is set to unveil a proposal to become energy independent (read: no Putin necessary). Long term, it could mean dramatically expanding renewables and zero-emission sources like nuclear and hydrogen.
  • The US can produce more, but President Biden’s climate policies and oil giants’ reluctance to boost supply have pushed oil production below 2019 levels. GOP leaders are urging Biden to drill, but nuclear and renewables are more sustainable.

Crisis moments accelerate change… as we saw during the pandemic. We’re still in the thick of this crisis, but one thing’s becoming clear: it could speed an energy revolution. Russia’s aggression is turning energy independence into a national-security imperative. Boosting renewable and nuclear energy can help get us there, but will take years of investment: fossil fuels still power 60% of the US’s electricity.

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching

Grounded... The West is squeezing Russia's $19B airline industry as sanctions jolt the economy. Last week, European Airbus and American Boeing stopped supplying parts to Russian planes. Meanwhile, global ticket-booking firm Sabre cut off Aeroflot — Russia's national airline — crippling its ability to sell seats. Biden has banned Russian flights from entering US airspace, and US airlines are rerouting around Russia’s massive airspace. But travelers could pay the price: dodging Russia on long-haul flights (think: NYC to Seoul) eats up more jet fuel and could hike ticket prices.

The Great Wait is over… and your boss wants you to try the new office snacks. Meta, Wells Fargo, and Cisco are reopening offices this month after Delta and Omicron delays. Service workers never got the WFH experience, but most white-collar workers who did have little desire to go back to IRL offices: so companies are dangling revamped spaces to lure them. Dropbox ditched “offices” for open-concept “studios.” Another tactic: Google’s asking staff to come in three days a week, after giving everyone a $1.6K bonus. Companies expect most of their employees to be (partly) in offices by summer.

Events

Coming up this week

March Madness gets influencer-ized… Competition on the b-ball court is dribbling into competition in your Insta feed. Thanks to last year’s Supreme Court ruling, players can now earn $$ from sponsored posts during this month’s NCAA tourney. Some have already scored $2M sponsor deals. By “Selection Sunday,” you’ll see hundreds of college-hoop stars doing #sponcon for brands like Dunkin and Gatorade. It’s a slam dunk for female players, who typically have larger social followings: female NCAA players have raked in more sponsor cash than men.

Short circuit... Investors are looking for the next EV maker to take on Tesla, but production snafus and chip shortages are making it tough. China's EV leader, Nio, shipped 6K of its sleek Tron-esque cars last month, up 10% from a year ago, but behind its January deliveries. US-based Rivian, which went public in November, blamed #flation for jacking up the price of its preordered e-pickups by $20K (update: the company reversed it). We’ll see how the customer backlash and supply-chain snarls could hit the Tesla rivals when they report this week.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights

  • Coin-flict: The war in Ukraine has boosted crypto demand across the board, causing bitcoin price swings and renewing calls for more crypto rules. Ukraine has raised over $35M in crypto aid from a wide array of donors.
  • Yacht-onomics: To crank up pressure on Putin, the US and allies are targeting Russian oligarchs by going after their superyachts. So far, the politically connected oligarchs have lost at least $83B because of sanctions.
  • She-cession: More women stopped working during Covid than men, even though recessions usually hit men harder. Unemployment has fallen below 4%, from a 15% peak in 2020, but women’s jobs are recovering more slowly.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Watch: An open conversation about the “taboo” topic of $$: Four women chat with a money mentor about how they earn, budget, and invest — from juggling student-loan debt to building credit.
  • Shrooms: Suds brand Dr. Bronner’s (the one with tons of tiny label text) has donated $23M to psychedelic-therapy research. Psychedelics have been decriminalized in several US cities, and are already a $1B+ biz.
  • Curveball: The MLB season is in jeopardy after owners rejected players’ salary demands despite lengthy negotiations. Player paychecks have fallen for four years as league revenues have boomed.

This Week

  • Monday: Earnings expected from Nio and Squarespace
  • Tuesday: International Women’s Day. Earnings expected from Dick's Sporting Goods, Petco, Bumble, and MongoDB
  • Wednesday: Earnings expected from Oracle, CrowdStrike, Campbell Soup, and Asana
  • Thursday: Weekly jobless claims. Earnings expected from JD.com, Rivian, DocuSign, National Beverage, LegalZoom.com, and The Duckhorn Portfolio
  • Friday: South by Southwest festival begins. Earnings expected from WeWork
  • The weekend: Daylight-saving time on Sunday. Paralympics Closing Ceremony on Sunday. March Madness begins Sunday.

Authors of this Snacks own: Bitcoin and shares of Google, Amazon, Disney, and Tesla

ID: 2066824

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Nicolai Tangen, the CEO who holds the purse strings of Norway’s $1.6 trillion sovereign wealth fund, thinks that his fellow Europeans don’t quite stack up to US employees when it comes to pure hustle, telling the Financial Times in a recent interview that there is a difference in “the general level of ambition” and thatthe Americans just work harder”. 

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Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked
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No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?