Thursday Dec.01, 2022

🏢 Airbnb's sublease play

Supply is key (Jens Kalaene/Getty Images)
Supply is key (Jens Kalaene/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

While your Insta Stories are filled with Spotify Wrapped “music personalities,” here’s the global story: Bad Bunny was the platform’s most-streamed artist for the third year in a row, and Joe Rogan defended his #1 podcast title.

Stocks soared yesterday after Jerome Powell suggested that the Fed is on track to hike rates by half a percentage point in December — a cooldown from the last four “jumbo” hikes of 75 bps.

2BR

Airbnb teams up with landlords and renters to juice the supply of Airbnb-able apartments

Cleaning fee not included… Airbnb has teamed up with building owners across the US to boost the number of rentable rooms on its platform. Airbnb did the legwork in 25 markets and found property owners who’ll allow their tenants to list on Airbnb, sublease-style.

  • Less tiptoe, more dough… Renters afraid of getting caught violating lease agreements won't need to secretly Airbnb their places to make extra $$. No more need to tell your neighbors “those are just my French cousins” [laughs nervously].
  • Testing, testing: To start, the program includes 175 buildings. Airbnb says participating renters have earned $100/night, on average, by hosting their apartments. But building owners can take up to 25% of the rental host's booking.

There's no place like home… if you can afford one. Homeownership has become even more inaccessible, especially after mortgage rates soared. Last year, over a third of US households were renters. But renting is no bargain, either: while rent prices have been cooling this year, they’re still up 7.5% from last year. The prospect of earning extra income through Airbnb rentals could be welcomed by tenants — and help ease the financial anxiety of committing to one place for a year (especially when the economy’s so up in the air).

Demand can follow supply… and Airbnb has an apartment-supply problem. As of October, apartments accounted for only 14% of Airbnb's listings — down 5% from 2019. According to Airbnb, that’s partly because of landlords' opposition to short-term rentals (think: anti-Airbnb rules). Now Airbnb’s looking to get landlords on board. The hope: more Airbnb-friendly apartments = more listings = more bookings. But there's a catch: research shows that the presence of short-term rentals in a neighborhood contributes to rising rents.

Charged

Hyundai and the EU are bashing Biden’s “Build Back” plans — and US EV-estments could be in jeopardy

It’s the 11th hour for EV taxes… and everyone’s bickering about President Biden’s rules. In August, his Inflation Reduction Act introduced rules that require EVs to be mostly US-made to get $7.5K in green tax credits (all EVs were formerly eligible). But US trade partners like the EU, UK, South Korea, and Japan say “Made in America” rules discriminate against foreign companies — and they’re urging Biden to ease or delay them.

  • Strict rules: Based on the current IRA rules, cars need to be built in North America and get 40% of key battery minerals from the US (or allies) to earn the credit starting next month.
  • Failing grades: As of now, not a single car model qualifies for the full credit — though Ford and GM say their cars will qualify for half.

“Made in America” mayhem… is escalating. Initially, Biden’s EV enthusiasm boosted investment in electric manufacturing: Kia, Ford, Honda, Tesla, Toyota, and GM all announced additional US EV investments after the IRA’s passage. But now critics say strict rules could discourage future investment — or even start a trade war.

  • Cranky carmakers: South Korea-based Hyundai, the #2 US EV seller after Tesla, said the rules are an “astronomical” blow and demanded an exemption.
  • Peeved presidents: French President Macron is in the US this week to urge Biden to relax the rules to avoid an EU trade war.

Biden faces a tough balancing act… The president wants to boost domestic EV manufacturing and reduce America’s reliance on China, which manufactures most of the world’s EVs (and EV batteries). But Biden also doesn’t want to alienate global carmakers, which recently announced plans to invest $82B in US EV manufacturing — and create 115K US jobs.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Play: Netflix hit "Glass Onion” might’ve earned $200M if the streamer had kept it in theaters for more than a week. But Flix execs say it’s more important to keep blockbusters on the platform as subs have slowed this year.
  • Stale: DoorDash laid off 1.2K workers, joining a slew of tech companies that’ve cut jobs after they said they over-hired. DoorDash’s sales surged 33% last quarter, but losses nearly tripled as labor costs spiked.
  • Brake: Volkswagen and Honda halted production at some China plants as the country’s strict zero-Covid curbs continue. The policy has rattled global supply of everything from chips to plane materials.
  • VIP: Delta’s hiking its Sky Club member fees by up to $600 next year, after fliers complained that some of its cushy airport lounges were too crowded. As air travel rebounds, some lounges have seen 130% more traffic.
  • Stormy: Salesforce and Snowflake shares sank after the cloud companies gave weak forecasts, despite beating earnings expectations. Also, Salesforce's co-CEO abruptly stepped down, and both anticipated lower Q4 sales.

Thursday

  • Jobless claims
  • Earnings expected from TD Bank, Dollar General, Kroger, Ulta Beauty, UiPath, ChargePoint, and Asana

Authors of this Snacks own: shares of Netflix, Ford, GM, Tesla, Spotify, and Delta

ID: 2617572

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
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Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.