👩‍🎤 Unpacking the "She-cession"

Friday, March 5, 2021 by Robinhood Snacks |
_141: The average number of days/year above 70⁰F in NYC_

141: The average number of days/year above 70⁰F in NYC

Yesterday’s Market Moves
Dow Jones
30,924 (-1.11%)
S&P 500
3,768 (-1.34%)
Nasdaq
12,723 (-2.11%)
Bitcoin
$48,113 (-5.74%)

Hey Snackers,

Today we find out if the "Coming to America" sequel lives up to the glory of the 1988 Eddie Murphy classic. Tall task.

Stocks fell yesterday, after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said inflation is likely to rise temporarily as the economy recovers. He also said the Fed likely won't raise interest rates, but investors were still worried. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to over 1.5%.

BTW: To learn more about how stocks, interest rates, and inflation are connected, check out our mini explainer.

WHM

Throw down the stats... Women are taking the biggest economic slam from the pandemic. As of December, women accounted for 55% of the 9.6M net jobs lost in 2020. And nearly half of the 12.1M jobs lost among women from February to April haven’t returned. This January, the unemployment rate for women and men was about the same (just over 6%). But that’s largely because women are dropping out of the labor force at higher rates. People who stop searching for a job aren’t considered unemployed.

  • 2.5M+ women have dropped out of the labor force between February 2020 and this January, compared to ~1.8M men.
  • 56%: Women’s labor force participation rate, which is at its lowest level since 1987. Women of color have been especially affected.
  • -4.8%: This January, there were 4.8% fewer Black women in the labor force than a year ago — compared with a 3.1% drop for white women.

Not your typical recession... Historically, men have been hit harder by recessions. “Normal” recessions tend to strike hardest in sectors with high male employment (think: construction and manufacturing). That’s why the ‘08 financial crisis was referred to as a “mancession.” The coronaconomy reversed this trend into a “she-cession.” Some major reasons why:

  • Job types: Women are overrepresented in high-contact industries like dining, retail, education, and travel. These have been majorly hit by lockdowns and social distancing.
  • Childcare: With schools closed, women took on a larger share of extra childcare duties than men — and many have left jobs to do so.
THE TAKEAWAY

It’s getting harder to bring back lost jobs... especially those lost among women. The overall pace of recovery has slowed each month since June. Schools are still closed in many parts of the US, and thousands of businesses that largely employed women have permanently closed or scaled back operations (think: airlines, restaurants, and malls). Each month that women stay unemployed or out of the labor force makes it harder to find a job. But the vaccine rollout and upcoming stimulus package could help speed things up. The February jobs report drops today, so we’ll see if there’s any improvement.

A/C

A crown made of air... Carrier Global is the king of air conditioners. We know that because its founder, Willis Carrier, literally invented modern air conditioning. The stock has more than 2X'd since April 2020, when Carrier spun out from its former parent company. Though its latest earnings disappointed analysts, Carrier believes the best is yet to come.

"Change is in the air"... according to Carrier's earnings presentation (surprisingly interesting). Three megatrends are bringing favorable winds to Carrier's biz: climate change, urbanization, and a growing middle class. Hotter days, city living, and rising disposable income are expected to keep boosting sales for the entire HVAC industry. Some cool numbers:

  • 19 of the hottest years on record have been in the past 20 years. Sweat = more A/C.
  • 141: The average number of days per year above 70⁰F in NYC in 2020, up from 111 in 2000. That number is expected to hit 184 by 2050.
  • 55%: The percentage of humans living in cities in 2020, up from 45% in 2000. The global urban population is expected to hit 70% by 2050.
  • 3.6B: The world's "middle class" population in 2018, up from 1.5B in 2020. That's expected to hit ~5.5B by 2030.
THE TAKEAWAY

Air quality has gained fresh importance.... First, there's the pandemic effect: poor ventilation can increase virus spread — so schools, offices, and hospitals became more focused on air quality (good for HVAC companies). Second, there's the environmental effect: in 2020, companies committed billions of $$$ to fighting climate change and reducing emissions — but 15% of greenhouse gases are from HVAC systems. That's why companies like Carrier are focused on energy-efficiency. Carrier's goal: to save customers 1 gigaton of carbon emissions by 2030. That's equivalent to ~20% of what the US emits in a year.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Stim: Senate Dems advanced the $1.9T stimulus package (which includes $1.4K checks) — it could be approved in days.
  • Cheese: Costco's sales jumped 15% last quarter from 2019, while ecommerce sales soared ~75% (it can thrive without free samples).
  • WTFlix: Netflix launches a TikTok-like feed of funny videos (called "Fast Laughs") in its iOS app.
  • Cruise: Honda becomes the world's first carmaker to sell a vehicle with certified level 3 autonomous driving tech.
  • Haus: The 30-Year mortgage rate (aka: the rate on America’s #1 home loan) topped 3% for the first time since July.
  • Prime: Amazon is reportedly in talks to carry many NFL games exclusively on Prime — it could pay $1B/year for the rights.

Friday

  • Earnings expected from Big Lots

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Square

ID: 1551278