Tuesday Nov.24, 2020

👻 Snap TikToks itself (bold move)

_America's Next Top TikTok Copycat is..._
_America's Next Top TikTok Copycat is..._

Hey Snackers,

We got a little facelift! Let us know what you think of our fresh look @RobinhoodSnacks.

Stocks ticked up yesterday after AstraZeneca and Oxford said their Covid-19 vaccine was up to 90% effective. Cases are still surging, and LA county just shut down all outdoor dining.

Tok

Snap is the latest to copy TikTok with "Spotlight" — it's all about "The Three Vs"

What's next, FleetTok?... Last week, Twitter copied Snap's Stories feature with Fleets (only four years after Facebook copied it). ICYMI: Pinterest, LinkedIn, and YouTube also have Stories. And of course, Facebook/Insta also copied Snap's AR Filters (avocado crown FTW). Now, Snap is doing some copy-catting of its own with its new "Spotlight" tab.

  • This TikTok-like section of Snapchat serves up viral vertical videos (we're calling it: "Three Vs" content). You basically just scroll up endlessly with no escape.
  • The "Three Vs" = TikTok's not-so-secret sauce. Viral vertical videos, paired with ridiculously addictive algorithms, helped TikTok grow from 11M US users in January 2018 to over 100M today.

Not so Renegade, Renegade... Copying popular features is standard MO for social apps. And Facebook has been aggressively pushing vertical videos on its Tok-competitor "Reels." But Snap is doing Three Vs a bit differently:

  • Cash Giveaways: Snap will divvy up $1M between the most popular video creators each day for the rest of 2020. It's all based on views from that day.
  • Viral For All: TikTok and Reels also shell out $$$ to incentivize creators, but they're more geared toward famous influencers. Snap says you don't need a public account or a big following to make it on Spotlight.

This is new (complicated) territory for Snap... Before, users could only see snaps posted by friends or by publishers in the Discover tab — there was no "going viral on Snap." But with all the scrutiny around viral misinformation and hate speech on Facebook and Twitter, Snap is moving into moderation-heavy (and risky) territory. That's probably why it isn't allowing comments on Spotlight videos.

Jam

Warner Music thrives on streaming, loses on concerts (it's a tale of two businesses)

'Twas the Lizzo IPO... Warner Music went public back in June as the first pure-play music stock of the record label "three-oply": Warner Music, Universal Music, and Sony Music (say "music" again). Warner signs artists, then markets and monetizes their tunes. Stars include: Lizzo, Ed Sheeran, and Cardi B.

  • Concerts aren't happening, so Warner lost on tour services and merch. Buuuut: Warner's full-year earnings were essentially the same as its record-breaking 2019.
  • Music streaming made up for it. Warner negotiates with streamers to get paid on listens. Digital sales were up 15% last quarter on the stream-palooza, offsetting losses from the pandemic-hit side of its business.

When Bruno's on pandemic vacay... He's not dropping that 24K Magic. Before going public, Warner noted that the "absence of superstar releases" was one of the biggest risks to its biz. Its roster is stocked with Led Zeppelin and Madonna tunes, but the big money comes from new albums. Fresh hits from artists like Dua Lipa made up for the silence from stars like Bruno Mars.

Warner reflects the winners/losers of the pandemic... The Spotify streaming side of Warner's biz is thriving, just like Spotify — the live touring side of the business is hurting, just like Live Nation. Warner's partnerships with pandemic thrivers like Facebook, TikTok, and Snap are growing sales even faster than subscription streaming. Warner also hinted it's exploring new opportunities with pandemic winners like Twitch (live-streamed concerts) and Peloton (licensing).

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Ride: The US government awarded Uber and Lyft a contract worth up to $810M to provide rides for public agencies and their employees.
  • Hurry: FDA advisers are slated to meet on December 10 to review Pfizer’s emergency-use application for its vaccine.
  • Game: Major tween gaming platform Roblox files to go public — it's all user-generated games (mostly created by kids).
  • Buddy: Amazon's AirPods competitor — EchoBuds — will include workout-tracking features in the next few days.
  • Treat: Regeneron says it'll provide 300K doses of its newly FDA-approved Covid treatment to the US by early January.
  • Saved: Regal Cinemas owner Cineworld lands a $450M loan and other debt relief, averting bankruptcy.

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Tuesday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Snap, Uber, Amazon, and Warner Music

ID: 1425094

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Latest Stories

Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales