Thursday Aug.08, 2019

Lyft's profit ETA: TBD

_That glass was actually spiked seltzer, not beer_
_That glass was actually spiked seltzer, not beer_

Hey Snackers,

We can confidently say we didn't expect this: Arizona Iced Tea is coming out with weed gummies.

Markets are still recovering from Monday's worst drop of the year — now Uber reports earnings today fresh after Lyft.

Fizz

Turns out Sam Adams isn't really a beer company anymore

Carb problems... Beer feels 'em. We've been chatting with you for weeks about declining sales (beer is now under 50% of all alcohol consumed in the US). And Boston Beer Co. is obsessed with ales — it owns Sam Adams, just bought IPA fan Dogfish Head, and often touts its beard-approved craft status. But research firm IRI recently reported this stat: Only 25% of Boston Beer's biz is beer.

That means 75% is non-beer stuff... In fact, its new profit puppy is super clear: Truly Hard Seltzer. The citrus-infused, gluten-free option has been Boston's summer tailgate champ, driving the company's 21% increase in shipments last quarter. Here's the rest of Boston Beer's non-beer, beach-beverage roster:

  • Truly: Sorry, had to mention this one again — its sales surged 163% last quarter from the year before (prepping for peak summer).
  • Twisted Tea: The hard iced tea sat back and enjoyed 22% sales growth.
  • Angry Orchard Cider: Just came out with a "rosé" option, because, rosé.
  • Other non-beer bets: A hard kombucha called Tura and a "craft" hard tea that goes by Wild Leaf.

Pure beer stocks are disappearing... Boston Beer isn't really a beer company anymore. Corona-owner Constellation Brands is big on whiskey, vodka, and CBD-infused experi-beverages. Bud-owner AB-InBev is also investing hard in non-beer options, like Babe. Meanwhile, Molson Coors dropped last week because it's overly dependent on Coors. The beer legends that are succeeding do it by trading what's on tap for what's light, fruity, or Cannabis-y.

35 states just rejected a $10B settlement from opioid distributors

Three drug dealers are getting sued by 35 states... The stocks of McKesson Corp, Cardinal Health, and AmerisourceBergen fell on a report from Bloomberg that they offered $10B to settle opioid lawsuits. Those 35 states had a completely different number in mind.

There's plenty to blame for America's opioid epidemic... Purdue Pharma invented (and aggressively marketed) the addictive Oxycontin, while doctors over-prescribed it. Then there are these 3 prescription drug distributors — they hook up pharmacies with the pills (aka the drug dealer's drug dealer). Here's why that $10B they offered to end the whole thing is a problem:

  • The allegation: 35 states believe the drug distributors turned their heads to what was obviously a dangerous problem.
  • The painful example: Some US counties had over 100 pills distributed per person, per year — to make more profits. 100 opioids per person.
  • The counter: Instead of accepting a $10B settlement, the 35 states proposed drug distributors pay up $45B. Big difference.

What matters to stocks isn’t when news becomes official... it’s when news becomes credible. Investors reacted fast to Bloomberg's credible report, dropping drug distributor stocks — so by the time an official verdict is reached, the fine could already be "baked in" to the drug distributors' stock prices. Just like Facebook shares barely budging after its $5B fine became official last month — the news was already baked in.

Ride

Lyft shares jumped, but 2 other stories revealed its "de-wokeing"

"Use code EARNINGS to get 15% off your 1st ride"... Lyft jumped on word that revenues surged 72% to a new record high. But because those discount codes it dishes out to drive growth are getting expensive, we noticed its growing loss.

  • Last year’s 2nd quarter = Lyft lost $179M
  • This year’s 2nd quarter = Lyft lost $644M
  • The good news: That loss was huge, but Lyft thinks 2019 is its "peak loss" year — losses will shrink from here on out (and hopefully/eventually become profits).

But then we noticed 2 other stories... and both looked less good on Lyft. Together, they highlight a couple major issues that de-woke Lyft's previous wokeness.

  1. It's not handling harassment well: If a driver bothers you, Uber's got a panic button that takes just 1 click to report – The Washington Post notes that it takes a bunch of clicks to reach Lyft's safety team (and their responses haven't been satisfactory).
  2. Congestion — it's a problem: Uber and Lyft commissioned their own report on traffic. Turns out a whopping 14% of vehicle miles traveled in San Francisco are ride-hails — and ~40% of driver time overall is spent cruising around without riders.

Lyft had one advantage over Uber... Reputation. Uber owns more of the ride share market, offers more services (like Uber Eats), and has more big bets (like UberFreight). Lyft had a #DeleteUber reputation advantage that helped it gain market share last year. It can't afford to waste that.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Headline: The New York Times falls as its subscriber growth slows — but it's closing in on 5M total subscribers (it wants 10M by 2025)
  • Done: FedEx is ending its ground-delivery contract with Amazon
  • Future-ish: Nike acquired an AI company to predict what consumers actually want
  • Discounts: Groupon launches a membership program to keep its daily deals relevant (and snag recurring revenue from ya)
  • Down: Heavy-duty truck orders just hit their lowest level in 9 years — and that could be an early economic indicator
  • Uplifted: Weight Watchers jumps 43% on hopes Oprah is fueling the comeback

Thursday

Disclosure: An author of this Snacks owns shares of Amazon.

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Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Go Deeper with Market Depth

Nasdaq TotalView powers the need-to-know data serious investors rely on.

Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.

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2024-04-22-1-america-importing-less-from-china

The US now buys more goods from Mexico than from China

Chinese imports are down as companies begin to "nearshore" in Mexico

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Multiple bidders want to buy Paramount Global’s sprawling media assets

Junk

How much of the world’s plastic is recycled? Only a fraction

Landfills still account for the majority of plastic disposal

Markets

Stock market gains for 2024 cut by more than half

All of the sudden, the stock market seems to be running out of steam.

There’s no big mystery here. War in the Mideast has pushed up oil prices, which will help keep inflation elevated. And annoyingly high price increases in March have already pushed the June Fed rate cuts the market was banking on farther into the uncertain future.

All that’s added up to higher interest rates and lower stock prices.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/22/24

AI needs so much electricity that tech companies are getting into the energy business

To accommodate tech companies’ pivots to artificial intelligence, tech companies are increasingly investing in ways to power AI’s immense electricity needs.

Most recently, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman invested in Exowatt, a company using solar power to feed data centers, according to the Wall Street Journal.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

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Private equity firms may soon own your favorite football franchise.