Thursday Aug.08, 2019

Lyft's profit ETA: TBD

_That glass was actually spiked seltzer, not beer_
_That glass was actually spiked seltzer, not beer_

Hey Snackers,

We can confidently say we didn't expect this: Arizona Iced Tea is coming out with weed gummies.

Markets are still recovering from Monday's worst drop of the year — now Uber reports earnings today fresh after Lyft.

Fizz

Turns out Sam Adams isn't really a beer company anymore

Carb problems... Beer feels 'em. We've been chatting with you for weeks about declining sales (beer is now under 50% of all alcohol consumed in the US). And Boston Beer Co. is obsessed with ales — it owns Sam Adams, just bought IPA fan Dogfish Head, and often touts its beard-approved craft status. But research firm IRI recently reported this stat: Only 25% of Boston Beer's biz is beer.

That means 75% is non-beer stuff... In fact, its new profit puppy is super clear: Truly Hard Seltzer. The citrus-infused, gluten-free option has been Boston's summer tailgate champ, driving the company's 21% increase in shipments last quarter. Here's the rest of Boston Beer's non-beer, beach-beverage roster:

  • Truly: Sorry, had to mention this one again — its sales surged 163% last quarter from the year before (prepping for peak summer).
  • Twisted Tea: The hard iced tea sat back and enjoyed 22% sales growth.
  • Angry Orchard Cider: Just came out with a "rosé" option, because, rosé.
  • Other non-beer bets: A hard kombucha called Tura and a "craft" hard tea that goes by Wild Leaf.

Pure beer stocks are disappearing... Boston Beer isn't really a beer company anymore. Corona-owner Constellation Brands is big on whiskey, vodka, and CBD-infused experi-beverages. Bud-owner AB-InBev is also investing hard in non-beer options, like Babe. Meanwhile, Molson Coors dropped last week because it's overly dependent on Coors. The beer legends that are succeeding do it by trading what's on tap for what's light, fruity, or Cannabis-y.

35 states just rejected a $10B settlement from opioid distributors

Three drug dealers are getting sued by 35 states... The stocks of McKesson Corp, Cardinal Health, and AmerisourceBergen fell on a report from Bloomberg that they offered $10B to settle opioid lawsuits. Those 35 states had a completely different number in mind.

There's plenty to blame for America's opioid epidemic... Purdue Pharma invented (and aggressively marketed) the addictive Oxycontin, while doctors over-prescribed it. Then there are these 3 prescription drug distributors — they hook up pharmacies with the pills (aka the drug dealer's drug dealer). Here's why that $10B they offered to end the whole thing is a problem:

  • The allegation: 35 states believe the drug distributors turned their heads to what was obviously a dangerous problem.
  • The painful example: Some US counties had over 100 pills distributed per person, per year — to make more profits. 100 opioids per person.
  • The counter: Instead of accepting a $10B settlement, the 35 states proposed drug distributors pay up $45B. Big difference.

What matters to stocks isn’t when news becomes official... it’s when news becomes credible. Investors reacted fast to Bloomberg's credible report, dropping drug distributor stocks — so by the time an official verdict is reached, the fine could already be "baked in" to the drug distributors' stock prices. Just like Facebook shares barely budging after its $5B fine became official last month — the news was already baked in.

Ride

Lyft shares jumped, but 2 other stories revealed its "de-wokeing"

"Use code EARNINGS to get 15% off your 1st ride"... Lyft jumped on word that revenues surged 72% to a new record high. But because those discount codes it dishes out to drive growth are getting expensive, we noticed its growing loss.

  • Last year’s 2nd quarter = Lyft lost $179M
  • This year’s 2nd quarter = Lyft lost $644M
  • The good news: That loss was huge, but Lyft thinks 2019 is its "peak loss" year — losses will shrink from here on out (and hopefully/eventually become profits).

But then we noticed 2 other stories... and both looked less good on Lyft. Together, they highlight a couple major issues that de-woke Lyft's previous wokeness.

  1. It's not handling harassment well: If a driver bothers you, Uber's got a panic button that takes just 1 click to report – The Washington Post notes that it takes a bunch of clicks to reach Lyft's safety team (and their responses haven't been satisfactory).
  2. Congestion — it's a problem: Uber and Lyft commissioned their own report on traffic. Turns out a whopping 14% of vehicle miles traveled in San Francisco are ride-hails — and ~40% of driver time overall is spent cruising around without riders.

Lyft had one advantage over Uber... Reputation. Uber owns more of the ride share market, offers more services (like Uber Eats), and has more big bets (like UberFreight). Lyft had a #DeleteUber reputation advantage that helped it gain market share last year. It can't afford to waste that.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Headline: The New York Times falls as its subscriber growth slows — but it's closing in on 5M total subscribers (it wants 10M by 2025)
  • Done: FedEx is ending its ground-delivery contract with Amazon
  • Future-ish: Nike acquired an AI company to predict what consumers actually want
  • Discounts: Groupon launches a membership program to keep its daily deals relevant (and snag recurring revenue from ya)
  • Down: Heavy-duty truck orders just hit their lowest level in 9 years — and that could be an early economic indicator
  • Uplifted: Weight Watchers jumps 43% on hopes Oprah is fueling the comeback

Thursday

Disclosure: An author of this Snacks owns shares of Amazon.

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.