Friday Feb.12, 2021

🐝 Bumble's IPO pop

_Bumble's date with the Nasdaq_
_Bumble's date with the Nasdaq_

Hey Snackers,

Perfect Valentine's Day meal for homebodies: 3D rib-eye, fresh out of the steak printer. Sooo much tastier than the '90s Epson black-and-white fillet.

Stocks closed at record highs again, boosted by a string of positive earnings. Bitcoin also soared to a record after BNY Mellon announced a new crypto unit.

PS: The market is closed on Monday for Presidents Day (aka: Washington’s Birthday) — so we'll be back in your inbox on Tuesday.

IPO

Bumble goes on the market just in time for V-Day (but don't call it a dating app)

Love at first swipe... More like: love on first trading day. Bumble saw its stock pop as much as 80% during its first day as a public company (#romantic). Shares of the female-focused dating app closed the day up 64% from their IPO price. And Bumble's 31-year-old founder and CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd became the youngest woman to ever take a company public. Women are Bumble's competitive advantage, in more ways than one:

  • Women make the first move... In North America, Bumble has ~30% more female users for every male user compared to the gender mix of users in the freemium dating market.
  • Women make the cash move... A higher percentage of Bumble’s female users become paying customers than the market average.
  • Not just Bumble: Bumble also owns European dating app Badoo. Between the two, Bumble has ~42M monthly users and 2.4M paying users.

But don't call it a dating app... Bumble prefers "preeminent global women's brand." In addition to Bumble Date: it also offers Bumble Bizz for career networking (think: swipeable LinkedIn), and Bumble BFF to connect with new friends (without benefits).

Bumble wants you for life... not just for your "single and ready to mingle" stage. It's a notably different strategy than Match Group's Hinge, which calls itself "the app that's designed to be deleted." To provide lifetime value post-DTR, Bumble is expanding into platonic categories. It's even planning to monetize BFF, Biz, and "other potential new categories." We're thinking "Bumble Bark" for dog-lovers.

BHM

Black communities make new ventures relevant, but often miss out on wealth creation

Like tech Twitter, for audio... Nightmare fodder. Buzzy audio-based social network Clubhouse recently raised cash at a reported $1B valuation, 10X its valuation in May. Back then: the invite-only app had just 1.5K users and was almost exclusively filled with early investors, their friends, and tech bros. In less than a year, it has gained 5M users, mainstream appeal, and a potential Facebook copycat. That’s largely thanks to its community of Black users:

  • Since July, Clubhouse’s Black community has grown significantly. Black people are driving conversation through interest-focused clubs and community events. Think: Black in Tech, Black Beauty Club, and Black Bitcoin Billionaires.
  • Black artists have been major growth drivers, with stars like Drake, Meek Mill, 21 Savage, and Tiffany Haddish hosting chats. Performances organized by Black creators, like the Clubhouse-rendition of The Lion King, have boosted downloads and maxed out chat “room” capacities. Highlighting the importance of Black artists to the platform: Clubhouse’s logo recently featured musician Bomani X, the host of a music-focused room on the app.

Pull up the stats... Clubhouse isn’t the only social app whose growth was propelled by Black communities. In the early stages of Snapchat, Vine, and Dubsmash, Black people were overrepresented in usage — fueling mainstream adoption by making these apps cool, creative, and relevant. “Communities of color drive the cultural conversation and a lot of the initial wealth creation for apps like Clubhouse,” according Mercedes Bent, partner at Lightspeed Venture Partners. While Black communities drive growth, they don’t reap its financial benefits as much. That’s partly a result of:

  • Unequal access to funding: From 2015 to 2020, Black and Latinx founders raised ~$15B, just 2.4% of the total venture capital raised during that period.
  • Lack of diversity in VC: Today, only 2% of decision-makers at VC firms are Black. And in 2018, just 4% of VC employees were Black.

Gatekeepers are key to greater inclusion... That's why VC firms like Andreessen Horowitz and SoftBank have created funds geared towards BIPOC entrepreneurs. But VCs aren’t the only drivers of change: barriers to inclusion appear at much earlier stages than the VC pitch room, preventing people from becoming entrepreneurs in the first place. That includes the massive racial wealth gap, which limits access to loans, capital, and educational opportunities that drive innovation.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Yoda: Disney says it now has nearly 95M Disney+ subscribers (aka: half of Netflix), up from ~74M last quarter.
  • Crunchy: Pepsi's quarterly sales jumped 9% as demand for Cheetos, Tostitos, and Quaker Oats offset weak soda sales (#StressSnacking).
  • Faschund: Secondhand marketplace Poshmark launches a pets section, so you can buy a turtleneck for your dachshund.
  • Vax: CVS and Walmart are prepping to dispense Covid vaccines to the public nationwide.
  • Chipper: President Biden is planning to sign an executive order to help US carmakers address the global chip shortage.
  • Why: Microsoft reportedly tried to buy Pinterest in an (unintuitive) move to fuel its cloud expansion.

Friday

  • Earnings expected from Dominion Energy

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Disney, Walmart, Match, and Microsoft

ID: 1523238

Get Your News

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Go Deeper with Market Depth

Nasdaq TotalView powers the need-to-know data serious investors rely on.

Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

Your inbox is ready

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.