Sherwood
Truckin’

Tesla’s profits 9X’d last quarter, but supply issues are catching up with the electric disruptor

Snacks / Wednesday, January 26, 2022
Cybertruck’s Instagram vs. reality [Winslow Productions via Getty Images]
Cybertruck’s Instagram vs. reality [Winslow Productions via Getty Images]

Still leading the charge… for now. Tesla rolled up with earnings yesterday, announcing that profits 9X’d last quarter from a year earlier. Tesla had said earlier this month that its car deliveries nearly doubled in 2021 to almost 1M. Still, the stock dipped yesterday after Tesla warned of ongoing production challenges. Investors also have their eye on competition, which is heating up:

  • Tesla’s EV market share dropped from 80% to 66% last year as GM, Ford, and Volkswagen increased EV sales. Analysts expect VW to sell more EVs than Tesla by 2025, but also predict Tesla’s profits will still be higher.

Elon time coming… Last year, Tesla dodged chip-shortage challenges that plagued rivals like GM by diversifying suppliers, making its own parts, and even removing parts from some models. But yesterday Tesla said supply problems are now its “main limiting factor.”

  • Stuck: Tesla was supposed to start pumping out Cybertrucks last year, but earlier this month postponed the ETA to 2023, citing supply issues.
  • Unstuck: EV rival Rivian has already started delivering its electric trucks, and Ford’s electric F-150s are expected to hit roads this year.

Tesla’s supercharged valuation “scale power”... and Cybertruck’s traffic jam prove that scaling isn’t always easy. Tesla became more valuable than its five largest competitors combined by creating demand for electric cars — and making its own seem more like caviar than granola. But to continue succeeding it needs to scale production to match rivals like Toyota and VW, which crank out 10X as many cars annually. To that end, Tesla plans to open new Giga-factories this year in Texas and Germany. But VW, Ford, GM, and Lucid also plan to invest $20B+ in US EV plants in the next few years.

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