Piggy

$300 monthly checks to parents start today, but the real winners could be retailers

Snacks / Thursday, July 15, 2021

Crank out the piggy bank... If you're still signing field trip forms, a $300 check could be on its way. Today, the US government starts sending US parents $300 per month for each child they have (your 25-year-old who lives at home doesn't count). This temporary increase in the child tax credit was passed as part of Biden’s $1.9T stimulus rescue package in March.

  • 39M households will receive payments, covering 88% of US children. Each month for the rest of 2021, eligible parents can expect $250 or $300 per kid, depending on age.
  • $105B: How much the boost will cost Uncle Sam. Last year, the credit was $2K/child per year. Now it could be up to $3.6K each year. Buut: it expires in December.
  • $150K: The full credit starts getting smaller for married couples who earn more than $150K/year, and individuals who make more than $75K.

Give the kid some credit... Since 1997, the child tax credit has reduced income liability for people with children. With the old child tax credit, parents saved on taxes owed when they went to file. With this new credit, parents are straight-up getting paid, even if they have no income. It's less like a tax break, more like a monthly allowance.

  • Dems tout the payments as a way to reduce child poverty and change lump-sum refunds into a reliable income stream. And Biden hopes to extend it for years.

Prepare for the "secret stimulus"... that could benefit big retailers. Pandemic stimulus checks boosted consumer spending, helping out go-to chains like Walmart, Costco, and Target. This monthly "credit" could have a similar effect on the family-favorite retailers. Target and Dollar General mentioned the sales-boosting potential in their earnings calls, and Walmart, American Eagle, and TJ Maxx are prepping for strong back-to-school sales. And it's not just binders and diapers — that spending could spill into adult categories like alcohol, restaurants, and travel.

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