Tuesday May.14, 2019

Trade War Episode II: Tariffing tequila and canoes

"_Do you know how expensive China just made this helmet?_"
"_Do you know how expensive China just made this helmet?_"

Hey Snackers,

She started it.

Just after Friday's fresh US tariffs kicked China under the table, China pinched back. Now investors are pulling the car over — The Dow plummeted 617 points for its worst day in four months on trade war family drama.

Sweat

Peloton claims first fitness victim: Flywheel

Yanked a hammy... Flywheel, the 40-studio spinning chain launched by a SoulCycle founder, is walking out of the class — it's been taken over by its biggest investor/lender. And the new boss is looking to make 2 moves pronto:

  • Try selling (again): Flywheel stuck a $350M price tag on itself last year, but no one bought.
  • Switch products: Instead of studios you schlep to, sweat it out in the living room with their at-home stationary bike.

Coincidence?... Nope. Peloton pioneered the tech-enabled at-home bike in 2012. Since then, it's stolen customer butts from major gym chains through extreme convenience. First, it's suing Flywheel for copying its home spin bike. Second, it's planning to IPO this year at an $8B valuation. Here are the 3 keys to Peloton's soul:

  1. Hardware: A $2K bike that's just small enough to fit in a closet, but big enough to humble-brag visitors with. Over 400K have been sold, featuring instructors who yell/guide you via the mounted screen.
  2. Software: Thousands of live and on-demand streaming spin videos are available so you can tap it back for a 30-minute hip-hop ride anytime.
  3. Subscription: Once you've bought the bike, you're on the hook for $39/month to access those class videos.

Peloton is the Apple of sweating... Just as your iPhone generates $$ for Apple via services (think Apple Music), digital content drives the value of Peloton's bikes. Without the virtual class subscription, it's just hardware. So Peloton instructors are "treated like pro athletes" to produce better classes, while the new Peloton app offers yoga/lifting/walking videos for $19/month. Content is calorie-crushing king.

Escalate

China's retaliation tariffs hit tequila and 5,000 more things. Here's where it all stands.

"No, you hang up"... (but with geopolitical tension instead of puppy love). One business day after President Trump hiked tariffs on Chinese-made imports from 10% to 25%, China announced higher tariffs on $60B in USA-made goods starting June 1st. That dropped stocks the moment Monday's markets opened.

"Americans' entire shopping cart will get more expensive"... Straight talk from a Walmart/Target lobbyist. Since Friday, half of Chinese imports have a 25% tariff — The other half is full of goodies you're probably wearing/touching/tapping right now (electronics, t-shirts, Silly Puddy). Here's what's surprisingly hit on both sides:

  • The next $300B of US tariffs on China: Purebred horses, 122 different kinds of footwear, coffee makers. Our highlight from the super-detailed list: "Footwear w/outer soles & uppers of rubber or plastics, nesoi, n/cov. ankle, nesoi, valued o/$6.50 but n/o $12/pair."
  • The next $60B of Chinese ones on the US: Honey, salted beef, "fine and coarse rice," tequila, gin, bricks, watches, chalk, canoes, and 5,000 more things.
  • Fun fact: Both China and the US are tariff-ing shoes made by the other. But it doesn't cancel out.

Hold your breath until June 28/29... President Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 Summit in Japan. Trump said he could decide not to impose those new tariffs if they agree to something. But markets are bracing for the full-blown, tit-for-tat, back-and-forth trade war we're in. The impact of each tariff is higher prices and less profit.

Gouging

44 states sue big pharmaceutical companies

Lance Armstrong would be impressed... According to a lawsuit filed in federal court by 44 state prosecutors, Teva Pharmaceuticals is a criminal mastermind. The allegation: It corralled 19 other drug firms to keep generic drug prices high — 1,000% higher than they could/should be. That's anti-competitive, illegal, and just wrong. So it dropped Teva stock 15%.

That's a lot of attorneys general... Here are a couple things we noticed from this lawsuit:

  • It's a shore thing: More than half of the 20 companies are based in New Jersey.
  • And it's a TV thing: President Trump just enacted new rules that require drug ads on TV to display the price if the medication costs more than $35/month.

One thing Americans aren't polarized on... Drug prices. Successful lobbying and divisive politics allowed pharma firms to raise prices on life-or-death drugs for years. Now a Republican President, over a dozen Democratic presidential candidates, and 44 state prosecutors want it to stop. Investors have already left the stadium. This game's over.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Mystery: Bitcoin jumped 50% in May alone. Here are 5 theories why...
  • Fresh: Impossible Foods (the Beyond Meat rival) raises $300M from celeb-vestors Serena Williams, Trevor Noah, Katy Perry, and Jay-Z
  • Up'd: Big Tobacco is OK with raising the smoking age from 18 to 21 nationwide
  • Out: Bed Bath & Beyond's CEO is stepping down on pressure from investors
  • Teamwork: Bleacher Report is going "all in" on sports gambling
  • Robo-ing: Amazon introduces packing machines at dozens of fulfillment centers: 1 robot replaces 12 workers

Tuesday

Disclosure: An author of this Snacks owns Bitcoin and shares of Beyond Meat.

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
Business
Rani Molla
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Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.