Thursday Sep.02, 2021

🌧 Ida's impact

_"Ladies, can I see some ID?" [praetorianphoto/E+ via GettyImages]_
_"Ladies, can I see some ID?" [praetorianphoto/E+ via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Save the last square: Americans are stocking up on toilet paper again. Charmin and Bounty maker Procter & Gamble is running factories 24/7 to meet surging TP demand.

The techy Nasdaq index inched up to a record yesterday. The S&P 500 index, which broadly tracks the US stock market, hasn’t dropped more than 5% since October and has clinched 50+ fresh highs in 2021.

Ida

Storm watch: Hurricane Ida's impact on consumers and businesses across industries

Center of the storm... Hurricane Ida reached the US Gulf Coast on Sunday as a Category 4 hurricane. For context: Category 5 is the highest. It's the most intense hurricane Louisiana has suffered since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Ida has already led to six deaths, and left 1M+ people without power.

From small businesses to energy giants... Ida's impact is far-reaching. Damage to the power grid and other infrastructure has been intense — even more than Katrina's in some cases.

  • Electricity: The entire city of New Orleans lost power after all of its transmission lines were knocked out. Restoring full power and A/C could take weeks, though Entergy — which provides electricity to 3M customers in LA, MS, AK and TX — says it's already been restored for 100K people.
  • Oil and gas: Gas prices are rising after Ida shut down a critical swath of US oil operations, including more than 90% of production in the Gulf of Mexico. Big deal, since Louisiana’s 17 oil refineries account for 20% of the US' capacity.
  • Insurance: The insurance industry expects Ida damages to be in the range of $15B-20B, compared to $65B for Katrina. But that's just insured losses — aka: not the total value of damages. CoreLogic estimates that ~1M homes could be damaged, totaling $220B in reconstruction costs. And insurance costs are already rising for high-impact areas and homes with older roofs.

It can take years to bounce back... from natural disasters. A hurricane might only last a week, but the damage it causes can take years — or decades — to repair. New Orleans has still not fully recovered from Katrina, and we don’t yet know what Ida’s total toll could be. Meanwhile, CA is experiencing extreme heat-fueled wildfires. Climate experts say these extreme natural events could worsen as the planet continues to warm.

Key

Apple continues its wallet takeover with a virtual driver’s license — and keys are next

Got my driver's iLicense last week… Yesterday, Apple partnered with eight US states to launch digital driver’s licenses on iPhones and Apple Watches. Apple emphasized that its new IDs are “more secure” than IRL licenses. The e-licenses will roll out in Apple Wallet after an iOS update this fall. How they’ll work:

  1. Scan your license with your iPhone, like you’d scan a card for Apple Pay.
  2. Take a cute selfie that’ll be sent to your state for verification.
  3. Twist your head around for a biometric scan with Apple’s FaceID tech.
  4. Sail through security by tapping your iPhone or Apple Watch and scanning your face or your fingerprint at TSA. TBD if the police will accept it for traffic stops.

Plastic is so 2020… Apple Pay is the top mobile payment tool in the US, with 44M users. But Pay is only the beginning: Apple wants to take over your whole wallet, purse, and keys. After touting privacy for years, Apple hopes customers will trust its devices as all-in-one passkeys to everything:

  • Leave the purse at home… In addition to in-store payments, Apple Wallet can be used to: ride public transit, check in to concerts, and store boarding passes and health insurance cards.
  • No keys, no problem… Apple Wallet can already be used to unlock cars, and even access some college buildings. Soon, Wallet will also be able to unlock homes, hotel rooms, and offices.
  • Not just Apple… Competitors including Google and Clear Secure are also building digital IDs. The e-ID market is expected to double between 2021 and 2026.

IDs are the next step in smartphone dependence… Every day, billions of people use smartphones to chat with friends, order food, book rides, watch shows, and navigate. Now, Apple wants iPhone to be the only thing people grab when they go out. By positioning its devices as all-in-one wallets, keys, and health monitors, Apple hopes to make iPhones and Apple Watches truly indispensable — and gain an edge over other smartphone makers.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Hired: Walmart is looking to hire 20K supply chain workers, and Amazon plans to add more than 40K corporate employees as the labor shortage continues.
  • Pill: OxyContin maker Purdue Pharma won approval of a $4.5B bankruptcy settlement that shields its owners from lawsuits accusing them of fueling the US opioid epidemic.
  • Booted: Virginia Tech disenrolled 134 unvaccinated students to crack down on Covid violations. Other universities and businesses could follow in its footsteps.
  • Restart: A group of US business leaders asked President Biden to resume tariff negotiations with China after the trade war stalled previous talks.
  • Gig: Massachusetts gave the green light to move ahead with a proposed ballot that could help gig companies like Uber keep classifying workers as independent contractors.

Thursday

  • Weekly jobless claims
  • Earnings expected from Broadcom, DocuSign, Hormel, and American Eagle Outfitters

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Apple, Walmart, Amazon, Uber, and Clear Secure

ID: 1823924

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
Business
Rani Molla
4/18/24

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.