Thursday Sep.02, 2021

🌧 Ida's impact

_"Ladies, can I see some ID?" [praetorianphoto/E+ via GettyImages]_
_"Ladies, can I see some ID?" [praetorianphoto/E+ via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Save the last square: Americans are stocking up on toilet paper again. Charmin and Bounty maker Procter & Gamble is running factories 24/7 to meet surging TP demand.

The techy Nasdaq index inched up to a record yesterday. The S&P 500 index, which broadly tracks the US stock market, hasn’t dropped more than 5% since October and has clinched 50+ fresh highs in 2021.

Ida

Storm watch: Hurricane Ida's impact on consumers and businesses across industries

Center of the storm... Hurricane Ida reached the US Gulf Coast on Sunday as a Category 4 hurricane. For context: Category 5 is the highest. It's the most intense hurricane Louisiana has suffered since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Ida has already led to six deaths, and left 1M+ people without power.

From small businesses to energy giants... Ida's impact is far-reaching. Damage to the power grid and other infrastructure has been intense — even more than Katrina's in some cases.

  • Electricity: The entire city of New Orleans lost power after all of its transmission lines were knocked out. Restoring full power and A/C could take weeks, though Entergy — which provides electricity to 3M customers in LA, MS, AK and TX — says it's already been restored for 100K people.
  • Oil and gas: Gas prices are rising after Ida shut down a critical swath of US oil operations, including more than 90% of production in the Gulf of Mexico. Big deal, since Louisiana’s 17 oil refineries account for 20% of the US' capacity.
  • Insurance: The insurance industry expects Ida damages to be in the range of $15B-20B, compared to $65B for Katrina. But that's just insured losses — aka: not the total value of damages. CoreLogic estimates that ~1M homes could be damaged, totaling $220B in reconstruction costs. And insurance costs are already rising for high-impact areas and homes with older roofs.

It can take years to bounce back... from natural disasters. A hurricane might only last a week, but the damage it causes can take years — or decades — to repair. New Orleans has still not fully recovered from Katrina, and we don’t yet know what Ida’s total toll could be. Meanwhile, CA is experiencing extreme heat-fueled wildfires. Climate experts say these extreme natural events could worsen as the planet continues to warm.

Key

Apple continues its wallet takeover with a virtual driver’s license — and keys are next

Got my driver's iLicense last week… Yesterday, Apple partnered with eight US states to launch digital driver’s licenses on iPhones and Apple Watches. Apple emphasized that its new IDs are “more secure” than IRL licenses. The e-licenses will roll out in Apple Wallet after an iOS update this fall. How they’ll work:

  1. Scan your license with your iPhone, like you’d scan a card for Apple Pay.
  2. Take a cute selfie that’ll be sent to your state for verification.
  3. Twist your head around for a biometric scan with Apple’s FaceID tech.
  4. Sail through security by tapping your iPhone or Apple Watch and scanning your face or your fingerprint at TSA. TBD if the police will accept it for traffic stops.

Plastic is so 2020… Apple Pay is the top mobile payment tool in the US, with 44M users. But Pay is only the beginning: Apple wants to take over your whole wallet, purse, and keys. After touting privacy for years, Apple hopes customers will trust its devices as all-in-one passkeys to everything:

  • Leave the purse at home… In addition to in-store payments, Apple Wallet can be used to: ride public transit, check in to concerts, and store boarding passes and health insurance cards.
  • No keys, no problem… Apple Wallet can already be used to unlock cars, and even access some college buildings. Soon, Wallet will also be able to unlock homes, hotel rooms, and offices.
  • Not just Apple… Competitors including Google and Clear Secure are also building digital IDs. The e-ID market is expected to double between 2021 and 2026.

IDs are the next step in smartphone dependence… Every day, billions of people use smartphones to chat with friends, order food, book rides, watch shows, and navigate. Now, Apple wants iPhone to be the only thing people grab when they go out. By positioning its devices as all-in-one wallets, keys, and health monitors, Apple hopes to make iPhones and Apple Watches truly indispensable — and gain an edge over other smartphone makers.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Hired: Walmart is looking to hire 20K supply chain workers, and Amazon plans to add more than 40K corporate employees as the labor shortage continues.
  • Pill: OxyContin maker Purdue Pharma won approval of a $4.5B bankruptcy settlement that shields its owners from lawsuits accusing them of fueling the US opioid epidemic.
  • Booted: Virginia Tech disenrolled 134 unvaccinated students to crack down on Covid violations. Other universities and businesses could follow in its footsteps.
  • Restart: A group of US business leaders asked President Biden to resume tariff negotiations with China after the trade war stalled previous talks.
  • Gig: Massachusetts gave the green light to move ahead with a proposed ballot that could help gig companies like Uber keep classifying workers as independent contractors.

Thursday

  • Weekly jobless claims
  • Earnings expected from Broadcom, DocuSign, Hormel, and American Eagle Outfitters

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Apple, Walmart, Amazon, Uber, and Clear Secure

ID: 1823924

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.