Thursday Aug.29, 2019

Amazon Ring is the new neighborhood watch

"_This is nothing — I just installed an Amazon Ring at my condo_"
"_This is nothing — I just installed an Amazon Ring at my condo_"

Hey Snackers,

Back to college update: Beer pong cups got a sustainability makeover.

Markets popped back up Wednesday thanks to higher oil prices pumping up energy stocks.

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Amazon's Ring security cameras team up with 400 police departments

Pranks just got harder... Over 400 police departments (these ones) can now ask Ring security camera owners for help cracking a crime. Amazon acquired Ring last year for $800M, then connected the doorbell-camera security startup to its own Neighbors app — Now Ring shows you, or the police, who's knocking.

Don't panic... You've got to opt in first. But here's how it goes down. The Neighbors app lets Ring-owners open up the video feed of their front stoop for all to see. Then "neighbors" (as Amazon calls the users) could get this request from local police: "There was a burglary this morning on 240 Spruce Street — you got video footage?" Got Ring? You might.

Nearly every new tech product has a privacy issue... Amazon made phone-connected home security a scalable thing — Ring became a Prime Day bestseller. Now catching package thieves in the act is the next reality TV hit. But Ring's relentlessly un-blinking 24/7 footage is just another front in the tech privacy battles:

  • The customer benefit: Protect your home, your neighborhood, and help the police catch "the Wet Bandits."
  • The social downside: Record your unwitting neighbors, potentially start over-reporting unsuspicious activity, and possibly get your feed hacked into.
Sweat

Fitbit snags a trick from Apple: Premium Subscription

Manning vs. Brady. Jordan vs. Kobe... Fitbit vs. Apple. Fitbit's only product competes with the iPhone maker's 4th most important product (Apple Watch). But the fitness tracker pioneer just announced Fitbit Premium — the new subscription concept hopes to more money every month off users who already paid for a Fitbit. It's a trick out of Apple's book.

Put me in, coach... For $10/month, your fitness tracker will crunch some artificial intelligence and tell you what to do — it analyzes your activity, diagnoses your "problems," then guilts you into changing with "solutions." And it's got a menu of 9 health programs to choose from, like "Healthy Habits" or "Get More Zzz's." Think of it like this:

  • Your old Fitbit wearable: It just showed that you only did 683 steps today. That's it. It counted.
  • The new Fitbit Premium service: Nudges you to go for an 18-minute walk at 2pm since you haven't moved in hours. Then it "encourages" you to join a 30-minute mindfulness course to clear your head before dinner.

Are we at #SubscriptionSaturation?... Add "digital AI health assistant" to the list of things you're coughing up $10 monthly for. On top of your Netflix, Spotify, and Blue Apron subscriptions, Fitbit's adding to the subscription-obsessed tech-meets-wellness trend we're seeing elsewhere:

  • Fitness: Peloton's about to IPO, charging $39/month just for videos of spin classes. And OG gyms do the same thing (physical gyms matter, too).
  • Wellness: Calm and Headspace charge $60 and $96 per year for meditation audio. Like podcasts, but for your deep brain.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Fido: Bayer is selling off its animal-health unit for a cool $7.6B
  • Threads: 200 footwear companies are pushing the president to cancel tariffs on Chinese-made shoes
  • Watch: SpaceX's Tatooine-worthy Starhopper prototype for Mars trips nails its 150-meter 'hop test' (you should watch this)
  • Retail-pocalypse: Lord & Taylor, founded in 1826, was just sold off to Le Tote for $100M
  • "Prorogue": British PM Boris Johnson just suspended parliament, adding some cheeky pressure to Brexit negotiations
  • PG: YouTube, which is owned by Alphabet, is creating a new website just for the kids

Thursday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own stock in Amazon

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Crypto investors greeted Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission's conditional approval of three spot bitcoin and ether ETFs yesterday with excitement, hoping the move would spur another bitcoin bull run like the one that followed the SEC’s approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in the US.

But an ETF expert told Fortune that he expects the impact to be “nickels and dimes compared to the US,” explaining that China’s ban on crypto products means that the new ETF will take in around only $500M to $1B — or just 0.5% to 1% of the total ETF market.

The long, brutal winter may finally be over for the IPO market

IPOs hit record highs in 2021 then hit the brakes, slowing down massively through 2023. But following last month’s successful public debuts of AI startup Astera Labs and social platform Reddit, a flurry of tech companies filed their S-1s.

Two highly-hyped startups are expected to hit public markets as soon as this week. Microsoft-backed data-security software co Rubrik is said to be looking to raise $700M and its AI adjacency adds to its investor appeal, though the company is not profitable. Rubrik’s sales pitch claims that advancements in AI could make its cybersecurity software more necessary and already works with Oracle and Amazon.

The other company expected to IPO this week is a profitable unicorn: Ibotta, a platform that gives users cash back and other rewards for online purchases. The Walmart-funded startup said it turned a profit of $38M last year and is targeting a $2.5B valuation when it goes public. 

Ibotta and Rubrik could warm markets up for a hot IPO summer: event ticket marketplace StubHub is reportedly looking to go public this summer at a whopping $16.5B valuation.

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia

Dr. Martens gets the boot from traders

Shares of Dr. Martens fell 30% and hit an all-time low after the British boot brand warned that sales were heading for a slowdown. The stock was also temporarily halted for trading on the London Stock Exchange.

Dr. Martens has been sounding the alarm on profits since early last year, as US shoppers (its top market) cut back on the $150 chunky leather stompers.

Doc's expects US wholesale revenue to drop double-digits next year as fall and winter orders — peak boot season — come in light. Meanwhile, CEO Kenny Wilson announced that he would step down step down in March 2025.

Doc's expects US wholesale revenue to drop double-digits next year as fall and winter orders — peak boot season — come in light. Meanwhile, CEO Kenny Wilson announced that he would step down step down in March 2025.

Housing starts worse than the late 1990s

In theory, high housing prices in the US should be stimulating a ton of new home construction. But it ain’t happening. In fact, just released March numbers showed the biggest monthly drop since Covid hit in 2020.

What’s the deal? Well, housing is a pretty interest-rate sensitive industry. The high rates the Fed put in place to clamp down on inflation have driven up mortgage rates. Housing is also hard to build, with some arguing that exclusionary zoning is a big part of the problem.

The lack of supply, high mortgage costs, and price spike that occurred during the pandemic means housing is the most unaffordable it’s been in decades.

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Department of Justice investigating Live Nation and Ticketmaster

Taylor Swift fans have beef with Ticketmaster-owner Live Nation, and now the US government does, too: The Justice Department is reportedly getting ready to slap America's largest concert promoter with an antitrust suit.

Lawmakers and regulators have accused Live Nation of outrageously high ticket prices, iffy customer service, and anticompetitive practices.

The DOJ's investigation into the concert colossus heated up in November 2022, when Ticketmaster crashed after T. Swift fans tried to snap up "Eras" tour tickets.

The DOJ's investigation into the concert colossus heated up in November 2022, when Ticketmaster crashed after T. Swift fans tried to snap up "Eras" tour tickets.

Jack Morse
4/15/24

Adidas inexplicably decides 2024 is the right time to jump back on NFTs

Adidas is reportedly teaming up with Stepn, a web3 company that promised to reward users who engaged in physical activity like walking and running. The collab, announced this morning by Stepn, kicks off with the release of 1K Adidas-styled NFT sneakers. Current price: roughly $2,500 a pop.

Stepn made waves back in 2022 as a pioneer of “move-to-earn” games.

The solana-based app rewarded active users with tokens — though they’d have to have purchased a pair of NFT sneakers first. Some early adopters bragged about making hundreds of dollars a day by walking, but critics said the game relied on Ponzi-scheme like economics. 

The Stepn-Adidas “phygital” sneakers release hits as the NFT market suffers a 30-day period that’s seen trading volumes fall nearly 40%.

The solana-based app rewarded active users with tokens — though they’d have to have purchased a pair of NFT sneakers first. Some early adopters bragged about making hundreds of dollars a day by walking, but critics said the game relied on Ponzi-scheme like economics. 

The Stepn-Adidas “phygital” sneakers release hits as the NFT market suffers a 30-day period that’s seen trading volumes fall nearly 40%.

Iran, oil, high rates are a bummer

At the risk of stating the obvious, the market has really started struggling. Last week’s hot inflation report, and the spike in interest rates it generated, seemed to get the sell-off rolling. Military strikes between Israel and Iran haven’t helped matters, as they’ve kept oil prices elevated. The market hates it, given the role oil plays keeping inflation high — and the Fed potentially on hold. The S&P’s 1.2% decline Monday pushed the index below its 50-day moving average, confirming the loss of momentum.

Rani Molla
4/15/24

We’ve tried nothing and we’re all out of ideas

Forget driving away advertisers and charging for blue checks only to give them out for free, Elon Musk has other ideas to not make money on Twitter, aka X. Today he floated charging new users a “small fee” to deal with the platform’s seemingly intractable bot problem.

Old heads might remember that way back in 2022, ahead of buying Twitter, the billionaire had pledged to “defeat the spam bots or die trying.” Guess we’re in the “die trying” era.

Which states have the highest tax rates?

Millions of people will be spending today frantically preparing to meet tonight’s 11:59 pm deadline. Indeed, those in the throes of filing can delight in the IRS’s promotion of “improved customer service”, as the ~100m who’ve already sent returns can enjoy less procedural promos from the likes of Krispy Kreme.

But if lower taxes are a priority for you: where should you move?

The biggest fund in the world is going absolutely nowhere near private equity

The Norwegian government announced on Friday that Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), the nation's $1.6T sovereign wealth fund, should not add private equity investments to its portfolio, rejecting the fund management's recommendation to add private equity allocation in November 2023.

The last few years have seen an uptick of institutional investors, such as pensions and endowments, increasing their exposure to PE. However, high fees and difficulty tracking investment performance have made the Norwegian government wary of investing in the field.

With private equity funds already struggling to return capital to their investors during a period of record-high inflows, restraint by the Norwegian government may prove to be a shrewd decision.

Bain Projections
Source: Bain Capital

The last few years have seen an uptick of institutional investors, such as pensions and endowments, increasing their exposure to PE. However, high fees and difficulty tracking investment performance have made the Norwegian government wary of investing in the field.

With private equity funds already struggling to return capital to their investors during a period of record-high inflows, restraint by the Norwegian government may prove to be a shrewd decision.

Bain Projections
Source: Bain Capital