Friday Jul.09, 2021

🚗 Volkswagen's collusion plot twist

_No makeup makeup vibes [Westend61 via GettyImages]_
_No makeup makeup vibes [Westend61 via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Bitcoin bling has arrived: in an unprecedented move, Sotheby's is accepting crypto payment for a 100+ carat diamond. The famous auction house is a fan of NFTs, too.

Stocks fell from their record highs as investors started worrying about economic overheating and inflation (again).

Colluded

Antier-trust: BMW and Volkswagen were fined $1B for colluding to avoid building cleaner tech

If Tony Soprano were driving in 2021… he’d pull up in a Volkswagen. European antitrust regulators fined Volkswagen and BMW more than $1B – about 5% of their annual profits – for colluding to avoid upgrading their emissions tech. In this plot, the "conspirators" are Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-maker Daimler.

  • The pact: Between 2009 and 2014, the three German car giants agreed not to compete with each other to develop cleaner, expensive emissions tech. "I won't do it if you don't."
  • The rat: Daimler agreed to blow the whistle on its co-conspirators in exchange for immunity in the EU investigation.
  • The punishment: Severe. VW will pay $590M, BMW will pay $442M, and Daimler would've paid nearly $900M — if it hadn’t squealed.

But this is actually a sequel... Volkswagen’s been busted before. In 2015’s #Dieselgate, VW outfitted cars with software to cheat emissions tests. Since then, VW’s paid $38B+ in fines and fees – but the German auto biz has struggled to clean up its soiled reputation. Now, EU regulators are sending an unprecedented message: no collusion of any kind.

EU antitrust just got broader... It’s the first time the EU has used antitrust law to punish companies for suppressing tech innovation, instead of usual no-nos like price-fixing. The three car companies didn't agree to all raise prices at once — that would be OG collusion. Instead, they tried a more creative type of collusion: don't innovate, boost profit. But the EU put its foot down. Antitrust might get broader in the US, too. New FTC leader Lina Khan has said that we need "a new vocabulary" for addressing Big Tech's dominance.

Highlight

Millennial makeup favorite Glossier snags a $1.8B valuation by embracing "the power of the package"

Don't eat the milk jelly cleanser... Glossier is the viral direct-to-consumer makeup/skincare brand whose products look like candy — or art supplies. From tubes of "Cloud Paint" blush and "Balm Dotcom" skin salves, to roll-on highlighter sticks, Glossier is the epitome of Instagram-able packaging. Now it has something else to gram about:

  • Double unicorn status: Almost. Glossier just raised $80M in funding, reportedly bringing its valuation to $1.8B.
  • The digital-first company plans to use the fresh cash to bring back physical locations, which it shut down during the pandemic. The first new stores will be in Seattle, LA, and London.

Signature makeup look... The "no makeup" makeup look. Seven-year-old Glossier pioneered modern, direct-to-consumer beauty with its TikTok-friendly minimal aesthetic. Think: Millennial pink and pastel-everything. It keeps things simple with 39 products that are easy to apply.

  • Household name with Gen Zillennials: Two in every five US women between ages 18 and 34 have heard of Glossier, and it has 5M+ customers globally.
  • Digital super power: Glossier's online sales increased across all categories during the pandemic, while makeup sales plummeted for OG retailers. 80% of its sales come from its own site.

The power is in the packaging... because it's the first thing we see. People often buy makeup, food, and other items because they look cute, without even knowing the ingredients or quality. Cool retail stores are a form of packaging, too. For Glossier, they're an extension of its marketing strategy to inspire, then acquire customers. Examples of "well-packaged" Glossier shops: a fried chicken and lipstick pop-up at a pink cafe in SF, and a Boston setup made of university-inspired “campuses." Coming this August: a huge, mushroom-themed concept store in Seattle.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Penalty: 15 US states reached a deal with OxyContin-maker Purdue Pharma, bringing the big opioids case closer to its anticipated $4.5B settlement.
  • Stable: Crypto firm Circle, which operates one of Earth's largest dollar-pegged stablecoins, is going public at a $4.5B valuation.
  • Swiped: Wells Fargo is shutting down all personal credit lines this month — customers weren't thrilled.
  • Freight: President Biden is expected to pass an exec order to curb the dominance of companies in the ocean shipping and railroad industries.
  • IOU: Borrowing is back — Americans are signing up for credit cards and car loans in record numbers.
  • Feature: How the Trump Presidency took a toll on Mark Zuckerberg's and Sheryl Sandberg's partnership. Hint: it’s political.

Friday

  • Marvel's "Black Widow" comes out in theaters
  • Earnings expected from Greenbrier Companies

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Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

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Tech

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.

2024-04-22-1-america-importing-less-from-china

The US now buys more goods from Mexico than from China

Chinese imports are down as companies begin to "nearshore" in Mexico

2024-04-22-paramount-global-site

Multiple bidders want to buy Paramount Global’s sprawling media assets

Junk

How much of the world’s plastic is recycled? Only a fraction

Landfills still account for the majority of plastic disposal

Markets

Stock market gains for 2024 cut by more than half

All of the sudden, the stock market seems to be running out of steam.

There’s no big mystery here. War in the Mideast has pushed up oil prices, which will help keep inflation elevated. And annoyingly high price increases in March have already pushed the June Fed rate cuts the market was banking on farther into the uncertain future.

All that’s added up to higher interest rates and lower stock prices.