Sherwood
Friday Jul.09, 2021

🚗 Volkswagen's collusion plot twist

_No makeup makeup vibes [Westend61 via GettyImages]_
_No makeup makeup vibes [Westend61 via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Bitcoin bling has arrived: in an unprecedented move, Sotheby's is accepting crypto payment for a 100+ carat diamond. The famous auction house is a fan of NFTs, too.

Stocks fell from their record highs as investors started worrying about economic overheating and inflation (again).

Colluded

Antier-trust: BMW and Volkswagen were fined $1B for colluding to avoid building cleaner tech

If Tony Soprano were driving in 2021… he’d pull up in a Volkswagen. European antitrust regulators fined Volkswagen and BMW more than $1B – about 5% of their annual profits – for colluding to avoid upgrading their emissions tech. In this plot, the "conspirators" are Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-maker Daimler.

  • The pact: Between 2009 and 2014, the three German car giants agreed not to compete with each other to develop cleaner, expensive emissions tech. "I won't do it if you don't."
  • The rat: Daimler agreed to blow the whistle on its co-conspirators in exchange for immunity in the EU investigation.
  • The punishment: Severe. VW will pay $590M, BMW will pay $442M, and Daimler would've paid nearly $900M — if it hadn’t squealed.

But this is actually a sequel... Volkswagen’s been busted before. In 2015’s #Dieselgate, VW outfitted cars with software to cheat emissions tests. Since then, VW’s paid $38B+ in fines and fees – but the German auto biz has struggled to clean up its soiled reputation. Now, EU regulators are sending an unprecedented message: no collusion of any kind.

EU antitrust just got broader... It’s the first time the EU has used antitrust law to punish companies for suppressing tech innovation, instead of usual no-nos like price-fixing. The three car companies didn't agree to all raise prices at once — that would be OG collusion. Instead, they tried a more creative type of collusion: don't innovate, boost profit. But the EU put its foot down. Antitrust might get broader in the US, too. New FTC leader Lina Khan has said that we need "a new vocabulary" for addressing Big Tech's dominance.

Highlight

Millennial makeup favorite Glossier snags a $1.8B valuation by embracing "the power of the package"

Don't eat the milk jelly cleanser... Glossier is the viral direct-to-consumer makeup/skincare brand whose products look like candy — or art supplies. From tubes of "Cloud Paint" blush and "Balm Dotcom" skin salves, to roll-on highlighter sticks, Glossier is the epitome of Instagram-able packaging. Now it has something else to gram about:

  • Double unicorn status: Almost. Glossier just raised $80M in funding, reportedly bringing its valuation to $1.8B.
  • The digital-first company plans to use the fresh cash to bring back physical locations, which it shut down during the pandemic. The first new stores will be in Seattle, LA, and London.

Signature makeup look... The "no makeup" makeup look. Seven-year-old Glossier pioneered modern, direct-to-consumer beauty with its TikTok-friendly minimal aesthetic. Think: Millennial pink and pastel-everything. It keeps things simple with 39 products that are easy to apply.

  • Household name with Gen Zillennials: Two in every five US women between ages 18 and 34 have heard of Glossier, and it has 5M+ customers globally.
  • Digital super power: Glossier's online sales increased across all categories during the pandemic, while makeup sales plummeted for OG retailers. 80% of its sales come from its own site.

The power is in the packaging... because it's the first thing we see. People often buy makeup, food, and other items because they look cute, without even knowing the ingredients or quality. Cool retail stores are a form of packaging, too. For Glossier, they're an extension of its marketing strategy to inspire, then acquire customers. Examples of "well-packaged" Glossier shops: a fried chicken and lipstick pop-up at a pink cafe in SF, and a Boston setup made of university-inspired “campuses." Coming this August: a huge, mushroom-themed concept store in Seattle.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Penalty: 15 US states reached a deal with OxyContin-maker Purdue Pharma, bringing the big opioids case closer to its anticipated $4.5B settlement.
  • Stable: Crypto firm Circle, which operates one of Earth's largest dollar-pegged stablecoins, is going public at a $4.5B valuation.
  • Swiped: Wells Fargo is shutting down all personal credit lines this month — customers weren't thrilled.
  • Freight: President Biden is expected to pass an exec order to curb the dominance of companies in the ocean shipping and railroad industries.
  • IOU: Borrowing is back — Americans are signing up for credit cards and car loans in record numbers.
  • Feature: How the Trump Presidency took a toll on Mark Zuckerberg's and Sheryl Sandberg's partnership. Hint: it’s political.

Friday

  • Marvel's "Black Widow" comes out in theaters
  • Earnings expected from Greenbrier Companies

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US spies can now use this GPT4-based model to analyze large amounts of classified data and presumably sound like a self-assured high-school report in their communications.

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tech

Gamers are still buying the Switch console in their millions, as its successor appears on the horizon

Sales of the 7-year-old Switch console are holding up better than Nintendo expected, as the Japanese company reported shifting 15.7 million units of the display-diverse device in the 12 months to March 2024, beating its own predictions.

More importantly, however, Nintendo finally gave something of update on the Switch’s successor, which is now set to be announced in the coming fiscal year.

Although Switch sales have stayed surprisingly strong... they’re still falling, highlighting how difficult the business of game hardware can be. You need a new hit every 7-10 years, as sales typically peak 3-5 years after release before dropping sharply. That slowdown is beginning to flow through to Nintendo’s bottom line, with the company forecasting a ~40% annual drop in profit this year, per CNBC. The Switch sequel, whatever it looks like, has some big shoes to fill.

Nintendo console sales

More importantly, however, Nintendo finally gave something of update on the Switch’s successor, which is now set to be announced in the coming fiscal year.

Although Switch sales have stayed surprisingly strong... they’re still falling, highlighting how difficult the business of game hardware can be. You need a new hit every 7-10 years, as sales typically peak 3-5 years after release before dropping sharply. That slowdown is beginning to flow through to Nintendo’s bottom line, with the company forecasting a ~40% annual drop in profit this year, per CNBC. The Switch sequel, whatever it looks like, has some big shoes to fill.

Nintendo console sales
tech

Apple's big “ad” business is mostly cashing their $20B check from Google

In what was mostly a disappointing earnings report with declining iPhones sales, Apple was quick to point out that its services segment notched record revenue. Advertising, the company keeps saying, is helping drive those services numbers.

But Business Insider’s Peter Kafka reports Apple’s ad business isn’t what normal people think of when they think of ads.

While Apple does have a more traditional ads business, there’s a huge “third-party licensing arrangement" it tucks into its ad revenue line. In 2022, Google paid Apple more than $20 billion to be the default search on iPhones and other Apple devices, according to antitrust documents.

Traditional ads make up about 6% of Apple's annual services revenue, while the Google deal brings in more than 20%.

While Apple does have a more traditional ads business, there’s a huge “third-party licensing arrangement" it tucks into its ad revenue line. In 2022, Google paid Apple more than $20 billion to be the default search on iPhones and other Apple devices, according to antitrust documents.

Traditional ads make up about 6% of Apple's annual services revenue, while the Google deal brings in more than 20%.

crypto

Robinhood Crypto joins other major exchanges as target of SEC Wells notice

Earlier today Robinhood Crypto said that it'd received a so-called Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 4, suggesting the regulator may be prepping some sort of enforcement action against the retail trading giant. (Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media.)

The SEC has argued that many cryptocurrencies are securities, and should be regulated as such. Dan Gallagher, Robinhood’s chief legal, compliance, and corporate affairs officer, said in a statement that the company believes the assets listed on its crypto platform are not securities.

A Wells notice does not always precede an enforcement action, which Robinhood said in an 8-K could include an injunction, a cease-and desist order, or civil penalties (among other outcomes).

The market mostly brushed off the news, with Robinhood Markets, Inc. shares largely recovering after a brief morning slide.

The SEC has argued that many cryptocurrencies are securities, and should be regulated as such. Dan Gallagher, Robinhood’s chief legal, compliance, and corporate affairs officer, said in a statement that the company believes the assets listed on its crypto platform are not securities.

A Wells notice does not always precede an enforcement action, which Robinhood said in an 8-K could include an injunction, a cease-and desist order, or civil penalties (among other outcomes).

The market mostly brushed off the news, with Robinhood Markets, Inc. shares largely recovering after a brief morning slide.

tech

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$2M per minute

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Consider it the flip-side of the Fed’s unwillingness to deliver the rate cuts the stock market has so desperately sought.

In March, the US Treasury paid $89 billion in interest to holders of Federal government debt — the equivalent of $2 million per minute, according to Bloomberg, which added that CBO projects the Treasury will payout $327 billion in interest and dividends to individuals in 2024. That’s roughly double what it doled out a decade ago.

business

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