Monday Apr.29, 2019

40M Venmo-ers vs. Everybody

"_Who should we venmo for all this destruction?_"
"_Who should we venmo for all this destruction?_"

Avengers: Endgame just set the record... for most movie records set (144). Including a record $1.2B hauled in worldwide on its opening weekend.

Stocks enjoyed their own record highs courtesy of tech earnings reports (nearly 80% of quarterly earnings so far have beaten analysts' expectations). Google and Apple are up next, while the government's April jobs report arrives Friday.

Highs

Who's up...

Scroll-worthy... Facebook stashed aside $3B to prep for a big government penalty, but shares still hit 9-month highs — 500M people use Facebook Stories daily (aka Facebook's copy of Instagram Stories, which was copied from Snap). And Twitter enjoyed its 6th straight profitable quarter in a row — Its user base isn't growing, but more people are using it every day.

Loyalty programs get VIP treatment... Starbucks rose on word membership in its Rewards topped 17M, and it powers 40% of all transactions. Domino's sales rose 4% as its caloric commitment club passed 20M members. And Chipotle boasted that its 1-month-old loyalty program already has 3M burrito faithful (but then the chain was subpoenaed over 2018 food illness issues).

The cloud is making it rain... Amazon's profits doubled even though its old school ecommerce sales slowed (so it's working to cut free Prime delivery down to one day). It's thanks to Amazon Web Services, which now powers 2/3 of total company profits. Microsoft joined the $1T valuation club as cloud services now make up 1/3 of its revenues (plus, Windows software sales shockingly rose 9%).

Set an intention... Like Lululemon's new 5-year plan to evolve into a full-on lifestyle brand. It's releasing sneakers, more deodorant, and fresh shampoo this year, and expanding travel/work khaki pants to double its men's biz. Then it goes experiential, with a 25K-square-foot Chicago store featuring meditation rooms, juice bars, and karma.

Lows

...And who's down

Barbie carries the team... Her sales jumped 7% and Hot Wheels rose 4%. Mattel has survived 2018's play-pocalypse (driven by the Toys 'R' Us bankruptcy), but it's also recalling Fisher-Price sleepers linked to 30 infant deaths.

Classic Tesla combo... First, Elon's Autonomy Investor Day revealed his (aggressive) plan for 1 million robotaxis by 2020. Two days later, Tesla announced last quarter's loss was four times what analysts expected and it's down to just $2.2B in cash.

Worst week of the year of the pig... for Chinese stocks. The Shanghai stock index dropped 6% even though the country's GDP growth beat economists' expectations. One big worry: That economic growth is increasingly driven by government-supported real estate development. It can't go on forever.

Two big thermometers... Construction equipment can be a hefty measurement of the world's economic health — And Caterpillar sales slowed in every region on Earth except North America. Meanwhile, Harley-Davidson's weaknesses reflect trade war drama — Profits fell 27% last quarter for the bike victim of retaliatory tariffs.

Charge

PayPal reveals Venmo's secret numbers (as digital wallet wars heat up)

Venmo etiquette is debatable... Now Venmo's numbers aren't. PayPal bought Venmo's parent company in 2013 for $800M. Last week, PayPal (finally) revealed Venmo's key info: Payments on the peer-to-peer payment platform jumped 73% to $21B in just the 1st quarter. But the big surprise was that total active digital users is right up there with big banks:

🍳🚕☕ = $$$... We also learned Venmo is expected to deliver PayPal $300M in revenues this year. So far, it has 4 main fees to make money off your endless friend-payback loop:

  1. Instant Transfers: 1% fee if you don't want to wait 48 hours to move that Venmo balance to your bank account.
  2. Credit vs Debit: A 3% fee to pay using your credit card instead of debit.
  3. Merchant fee: Venmo earns a small piece of the action when you pay Chipotle directly for a burrito bowl using the Venmo app.
  4. Interchange fee: It also takes a slice when you swipe its prepaid physical debit card, just like credit card companies do.

Emoji aren't a competitive advantage... PayPal's relying on your post-brunch venmoing game to protect its growth with Millennials and Gen Z. The CEO believes "the magic is its social experience." But Square's Cash App with 15M monthly users now outpaces Venmo in app downloads. And while Venmo thinks users will jump at its own planned credit card, Apple and Goldman just teamed up for one, too. 😥

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Work: First impressions — The 12 things people decide within 2 minutes of meeting you
  • Life: An Out-Of-Office generator for your email (move the toggle around to make it more/less professional)
  • Money: How much $$ should actually be in your 401k
  • Venture: Entrepreneurs need mentors — Here's what the best mentors do
  • Crypto: The "Bitcoin couple" living on the lawless, tax-free island off Thailand
  • Do: Spring clean your inbox in 10 ways

This Week

Disclosure: An author of this Snacks owns shares of Amazon, Lululemon, and Tesla.

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AI needs so much electricity that tech companies are getting into the energy business

To accommodate tech companies’ pivots to artificial intelligence, tech companies are increasingly investing in ways to power AI’s immense electricity needs.

Most recently, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman invested in Exowatt, a company using solar power to feed data centers, according to the Wall Street Journal.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

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Business

What’s on your mind?

Meta is rolling out a new chatbot, Meta AI, to its 3 largest social media properties: Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp.

On Facebook the usual search bar for some users has been replaced with “Ask Meta AI anything” — a prompt that could give millions of people their first ever interaction with an AI chatbot.

Meta has been increasingly focused on AI ever since ChatGPT exploded into the mainstream in late 2022. In earnings calls, the focus has never been clearer: Facebook execs made ~10x more references to artificial intelligence than the Metaverse, the company’s previous primary focus which prompted its rebrand in October 2021.

Metaverse mentions

Meta has been increasingly focused on AI ever since ChatGPT exploded into the mainstream in late 2022. In earnings calls, the focus has never been clearer: Facebook execs made ~10x more references to artificial intelligence than the Metaverse, the company’s previous primary focus which prompted its rebrand in October 2021.

Metaverse mentions

When the chips are down

Super Micro Computer, which produces the kind of servers fueling the AI boom, declined to pre-announce earnings. This spooked investors and rattled the entire chips-producing sector. That sent Super Micro plunging 23%, and dragged down lots of their customers and suppliers down with it.

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World

Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.