Wednesday Jan.19, 2022

🎮 Microsoft’s $70B meta-gaming gambit

Reviewing the subscription bills like [YinYang/E+ via Getty Images]
Reviewing the subscription bills like [YinYang/E+ via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

Cobb salad, NFT on the side: The world’s first NFT restaurant only accepts nonfungible tokens to enter its exclusive dining room. Its $7.9K tokens sold out in hours — and are reselling for $300K. Leave the server a nonfungible tip.

Stocks fell across the board and the Nasdaq closed in correction territory, down 10% from its November record. The crypto market briefly slipped below $2T, a drop of nearly 50% from its high of nearly $3T in November. US mortgage interest rates climbed for the fourth straight week.

Meringues

Microsoft’s $70B Activision bid is the biggest cash deal ever, cementing gaming in the metaverse

Candy, crushed… Yesterday Microsoft announced plans to buy Activision Blizzard, which makes hits like World of Warcraft and Candy Crush, for about $70B — the largest all-cash acquisition in corporate history. For reference: Previously Microsoft’s biggest deal was its $26B LinkedIn purchase. Shares of Activision spiked 26% yesterday, after slipping 27% since California regulators sued the company over employee harassment in July.

  • Microsoft’s gaming biz is now the third largest in the world after Tencent’s and Sony’s. Microsoft’s existing gaming biz (think: Xbox, Minecraft) brought in $15B last year, and its Xbox Game Pass monthly subscription now has 25M subscribers.
  • Antitrust scrutiny is expected, but Microsoft is reportedly so confident the deal will close, it’s agreed to pay a $3B cancellation fee if it falls through.

When it games, it pours… Sales across the gaming industry boomed 27% during lockdown in 2020 and continued growing last year. Gaming revenues are forecast to jump from $180B in 2021 to $220B by 2024. And as gaming companies reach new sales levels, there’s been a flurry of consolidation: There were $117B worth of gaming acquisitions last year, and Grand Theft Auto maker Take-Two agreed to buy FarmVille creator Zynga last week for $12.7B.

Games could be key to monetizing the metaverse(s)... As Microsoft races rivals like Meta (fka: Facebook) and Nvidia to build the first widely used metaverse, blockbuster games could help attract skeptics. Platforms like Fortnite and Roblox have already built massive followings and in-game virtual economies. CEO Satya Nadella said Activision “will play a key role” in building metaverse platforms for 3B global gamers.

Inferno

Netflix raises US and Canadian prices again but slashes prices in India to reach its next “100 million”

Don't look up... at your streaming bill. Netflix is raising prices for its 74M subscribers in the US and Canada across plans. The standard plan (aka: the most popular) is rising by $1.50/month to $15.50. The hike comes less than a year and a half after the Flix's last US increase.

  • Watch again: Netflix gained 36M subscribers in 2020 as we hibernated with laptops, ramen, and "Tiger King."
  • Next episode: That led to subscription saturation (#subscripturation) and slowing growth. Last quarter Netflix added fewer than 4.5M subs.

The real "Single's Inferno"... no one to share a Netflix password with. US-Canada subscribers make up more than a third of Netflix’s 214M subs. But in the second quarter Netflix lost US-Canada subscribers. The price hikes could add $1B+ in annual revenue to compensate for sluggish growth in the Flix’d-out market. As streaming competition #intensifies, Netflix is exploring other growth opportunities:

  • New products: Last year it launched a merch shop (think: "Emily in Paris" sunglasses). It also released games on its mobile app, including two based on "Stranger Things."
  • New markets: Netflix is doubling down on foreign content like “Squid Game” for international growth. Last month it slashed prices in India to $2.60 to compete with Disney and Amazon in the largest untapped digital market.

Saturated customers pay for unsaturated growth… Netflix has become a cultural staple in the US. It’s betting you’ll shell out the extra $1.50/month to not feel left out while your coworkers talk “Cobra Kai.” While saturated markets give Netflix price power, unsaturated markets like India can give it growth power. Of India’s 1.4B people, only 5M are Netflix subscribers. Netflix is looking to India for its “next 100 million” — and it can afford to slash prices abroad by hiking prices at home.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Swallow: Pfizer said its newly authorized Covid pill is effective at treating Omicron in lab tests — but supplies are scarce.
  • Miss: Goldman Sachs shares fell 7% after it said quarterly profit dropped from last year on disappointing trading revenue. It’s also been splurging on comp to retain stressed-out talent.
  • Slick: Exxon pledged to hit net-zero emissions on its operations by 2050. It's the last US oil giant to make a net-zero promise amid pressure from activist investors.
  • Yikes: AT&T and Verizon are delaying the rollout of 5G wireless services near some US airports after airlines warned the technology could cause "catastrophic disruption" for flights.
  • Subtle: An activist investor once again told Kohl's to shape up or sell the company, writing that its exec team is "incapable" of creating shareholder value — a month after a separate investor applied pressure.

Wednesday

  • Earnings expected from: UnitedHealth, Bank of America, Procter & Gamble, Morgan Stanley, and US Bancorp

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Microsoft, Netflix, Amazon, Disney, Zynga, AT&T, and Pfizer

ID: 1995744

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Nicolai Tangen, the CEO who holds the purse strings of Norway’s $1.6 trillion sovereign wealth fund, thinks that his fellow Europeans don’t quite stack up to US employees when it comes to pure hustle, telling the Financial Times in a recent interview that there is a difference in “the general level of ambition” and thatthe Americans just work harder”. 

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked
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$2T is the new $1T

Alphabet’s phenomenal earnings yesterday was enough to push the search giant’s market cap beyond $2 trillion, joining the likes of NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft.

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$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

Business
Rani Molla
4/25/24

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?