Friday Aug.27, 2021

💴 All eyes on the Fed

_Waiting for the Fed to text back like... [Image Source via GettyImages]_
_Waiting for the Fed to text back like... [Image Source via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Kanye West has reportedly petitioned to legally change his name to “YE." Happy Fri-Ye.

Stocks slipped from their records yesterday ahead of the Fed's big event today.

Billions

All eyes are on the big Fed meeting today, but we might not get a game plan for awhile

Jerome puts on his Zoom face.... We're imagining a "raining hundreds" background. Investors have eyes on the Fed's annual Jackson Hole meeting today, which is being held virtually. Wall Street wants to know if the central bank is prepared to wind down its massive pandemic bond-buying program, which has helped economic recovery.

  • Since March 2020, the Fed has added trillions to the money supply through bond-buying. It's currently dropping a whopping $120B per month on Treasury and mortgage bonds.
  • How it works: The Fed buys bonds from banks, and the new cash that banks receive flows through to consumers and businesses through loans, etc.
  • Why it works: All that money helped bring us ultra-low interest rates during the pandemic, which boosted spending. Think: lower rates for mortgages and biz loans.

Inflated = the new bloated... The Fed's "easy money" policy has helped the S&P 500 — a benchmark for US stocks — nearly double in value since March 2020. But as the economy swiftly recovers and prices rise (#flated), the central bank is considering reigning in its policy this year. Notes from the Fed's latest July meeting suggest the economy is closer to achieving the Fed’s inflation and employment goals.

  • Unemployment was at 5.4% in July, down from 10.2% a year ago — but it's still 2% higher than the pre-pandemic rate. Job recovery has slowed, despite record openings.
  • Inflation: Consumer prices are up 5.4% from last year, and the Fed's ultra-low interest rate policies aren't helping.
  • GDP: While the US economy is rebounding, many economists have downgraded their estimates for yearly growth as the Delta variant surges.

We're all in the same boat... The Fed, investors, and businesses are facing the same uncertainty with Delta. That's why the Fed might not share its tapering plans today — or for months. Since the Fed's last update: Covid cases and hospitalizations have doubled, more companies and governments have re-imposed restrictions, and consumer spending and confidence have dropped. The Fed's not the only one wondering how Delta will affect recovery.

Work

Salesforce thinks the future of work is hybrid — and wants it to happen over Slack

Slack was added to #Salesforce… and it’s blowing up the channel. Software giant Salesforce raised its yearly earnings forecast on unexpectedly strong sales, and the stock popped 4% yesterday. Contributing to the growth:

  • Slack: Salesforce bought the office chat app, which has 10M+ daily users, for a whopping $27.7B last quarter.
  • #s: Slack is expected to generate just 4% of Salesforce’s revenue this year — but its sales last quarter grew faster than all of Salesforce’s major divisions.

Counting heart reactions… Slack is central to Salesforce's strategy, because the future of work is trending hybrid. Nine in 10 companies plan to combine remote and in-office work, but only a third feel prepared. Salesforce believes all businesses will need more remote capabilities. Salesforce believes its Slack-quisition will power:

  • Digital HQs: Salesforce integrated Slack with its existing service, marketing, and analytics software to help businesses keep track of customers and close deals all in one digital HQ.
  • Hybrid work: NBD if your vendors and clients are fully remote. Slack Connect, launched during the pandemic, allows cross-company collaboration. Usage boomed last quarter, as workers sent crucial docs and emojis to external partners.

Making remote feel close is key… Whichever company pulls it off could win the workplace software wars. Salesforce is betting big on Slack, while other biz software companies are launching remote-first tools: Microsoft, whose Teams workplace comms platform has 250M monthly users, launched an employee experience platform to give remote teams an “integrated experience,” and Dropbox revamped its virtual workplace to serve remote clients.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Shot: After the FDA's full approval of Pfizer's Covid shot, more companies are considering penalizing unvaxed employees — and Delta Air Lines already has.
  • OhChip: TSMC, the world’s largest contract chip maker, is reportedly raising prices by up to 20%. That could lead to pricier tech gadgets.
  • Fitch: Abercrombie shares dropped 10% yesterday after the cologne-forward retailer revealed that supply chain delays hurt quarterly sales.
  • Spin: Peloton's stock dipped yesterday after the pedal powerhouse revealed its treadmill recall contributed to slowing quarterly sales growth.
  • Cents: Shares of Dollar General and Dollar Tree tanked after the thrift retailers lowered earnings forecasts on surging freight costs.
  • Newsy: Forbes announced plans to go public in a $630M SPAC merger, and Insider-owner Axel Springer bought news outlet Politico for $1B.

Friday

  • Earnings expected from Big Lots

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Microsoft and Delta

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World

Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

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Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

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Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing the US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, that means that Uncle Sam loses more than two cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th-straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
Business

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.