Wednesday Nov.11, 2020

💄 Ulta moves into Target

_When they move you from Aisle 5 Bread to the Ulta store_
_When they move you from Aisle 5 Bread to the Ulta store_

Hey Snackers,

A big Veterans Day shoutout to the men and women who have sacrificed to serve and defend the United States. Thank you for your service.

The tech stock-filled Nasdaq index kept sliding yesterday as investors digested promising vaccine news.

Blend

Ulta Beauty stores move into Target with the "Inception Retail" model

Tired of living in Sephora's (eye)shadow... Ulta Beauty needs a place to crash this pandemic cuffing season — so it's moving in with Target. But Target's offering more than a blow-up mattress: it'll set aside 1K square-foot sections in over 100 Target stores for Ulta mini-shops starting in 2021. Tarjay's planning to expand the beauty chain to hundreds more stores over time. Ulta stock got a 7% glow-up on the partnership.

"In the red"... every company's lipstick shade nightmare. Ulta narrowly avoided a loss last quarter as profit plunged nearly 95%. Most of its sales come from its 1K+ stores, which were forced to close for most of the quarter. But the tide could turn with this key partnership:

  • Ulta's getting an "Essential Shield." Even if lockdowns get reimposed, grocery-slinging Target will get to stay open.
  • Ulta's getting unintentional exposure. You’re not likely to hit up Ulta for lipliner (masks and Zoom killed that). But you might pick up face serum on your way to buy hummus.
  • It's getting featured on Target’s website and app — prime real-estate for a company that badly needs to up its digital game.

Inception Retail could be the future... This store-within-a-store model sounds a lot like department stores. But malls and department stores are filing for bankruptcy and shuttering in droves. Meanwhile, Amazon is toying with the idea of turning bankrupt JC Penney and Sears into fulfillment centers. To fill this void, pandemic winners Target and Walmart have expanded their clothes and cosmetics offerings. Inception Retail is the next push into malls' territory.

Podiction

Spotify drops a quarter billion on a pod-cquistion to help it grow out of puberty

Serious pod head... Spotify is majorly pod addicted. In the past few years, the Swedish streamer has sealed deals for shows from big names like Joe Rogan, Michelle Obama, and Kim K. Spotify also shelled out over $500M to buy companies like The Ringer (pod network), Gimlet (pod producer), Parcast (original shows), and Anchor (pod recording software). Now...

  • Spotify is buying Megaphone for $235M. The pod-tech firm helps podcasters with production, ads, and audience metrics. But its real selling point is...
  • "Targeted Marketplace" — this service lets advertisers target listeners by interest, demographics, and buying history. Like Facebook, for your ears.

You're special... Not everyone got the same Function of Beauty ad mid-pod — Megaphone knows you're worried about split hairs. Advertisers buy slots targeting different audiences across the 5.5K+ shows that use Megaphone, instead of specific pods. With this acquisition, Spotify gains all of Megaphone's customers. It can also use Megaphone's tech to improve/expand its own ad tech.

Podcasting is still going through puberty... It grew three feet over the past two years, and now its old basketball shorts look like Speedos (awkward). Podcasting now has over 100M monthly listeners, but less than $1B/year is spent on pod ads. Targeting/measurement on pods is way less precise than social media targeting, so advertisers aren't shelling out as much $$$. Spotify's hoping to change that with this deal.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • AUX: Lyft's earnings showed a slight recovery in ride-sharing — active riders jumped 44% from the previous (horrible) quarter.
  • Future: Walmart teams up with GM's self-driving electric car company Cruise to test driverless grocery delivery.
  • Stay: Airbnb creates an endowment to support hosts ahead of its IPO. It's planning to go public on the Nasdaq this month.
  • Channel: Nielsen works to make targeted ads widespread on network TV — just like Facebook knows your interests, your cable might too.
  • Eurozoned: The EU hits Amazon with antitrust charges for allegedly anti-competitive policies towards European sellers.

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Wednesday

  • Earnings expected from Vroom

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Walmart and Amazon

ID: 1407933

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.