Friday Aug.21, 2020

💵 The dollar gets kryptonite poisoning

_Depreciation is his kryptonite_
_Depreciation is his kryptonite_

Hey Snackers,

The 2020 simulation took a sweet turn when chocolate snow started falling over a Swiss town (claaassic Swiss town headline). A ventilation mishap at a Lindt factory made powdered cocoa rain from the sky. Tomorrow's forecast: cloudy with a chance of Swatches.

A surprisingly high 1.1M people filed for unemployment last week. The week before, jobless claims dropped to below 1M. Stocks ticked up despite the bummer.

Stream

Verizon accelerates its own cable death with a free Disney streaming bundle

Way harsh, Tai... Verizon just trolled itself by saying cable bundles no longer make sense. But it came ready with a self-improvement strategy: a sweet Mickey deal. Verizon is offering the entire Disney streaming bundle (aka Hulu, Disney+ and ESPN+) for free to some premium wireless customers.

  • Old Bundle: Telecom companies are known for "Triple Play" bundles of cable TV, internet, and phone service.
  • New Bundle: Internet, wireless service, and the Disney streaming bundle + Apple Music thrown in at no additional cost. And no expiration date.

Just wanted to stream Hamilton... Verizon's cable biz is dying because streamers like Disney+ and Netflix are thriving. The cord-cutting frenzy wasn't lost on Verizon, so it decided to disrupt its own cable business:

  • Over 50% of new Verizon Fios households choose not to add cable TV to their home broadband internet package. That unbundling spells doom for pay TV.
  • The current value chain of the media business is not working. It’s broken.” Verizon exec quote, spittin' facts.

Not all bundles are created equal... but they're all meant to reduce churn. You're less likely to cut your relationship with a company if it's offering you 5 services at bundle price (even if you only care about 3). But cable has clearly lost its sex appeal, while streaming is at peak hotness. Verizon isn't the only telecom splurging to offer streaming for free: T-Mobile gives away Netflix and Quibi and AT&T ships HBO Max. It's customer retention strategy, binge-edition.

Currency

America's "Superman Currency" is weakening — how that affects your wallet

Nutella might get pricier... The value of the US dollar is sliding (aka depreciating) relative to other currencies like the Euro. Say a jar of Nutella costs €1. A year ago, €1 equaled $1.10. Today, €1 = $1.19. You're spending 9 cents more to nab the same jar of Italian decadence. The value of the dollar has fallen to its lowest level in over two years, and it might keep sliding.

  • "Superman Currency": The USD's stable rep makes it a hot global commodity. It has long been used as the world's reserve currency for international purchases.
  • Superman in Action: If Canada wants to buy oil from Mexico, it's likely doing it in USD. Exchanging Canadian dollars for Mexican pesos could mean losing money. Picture gnarly airport exchange fees post-Cabo trip.

Beware the kryptonite... Like that friend who immediately Venmos you, the US government has never missed a debt payment. That has allowed it to borrow trillions at near-zero interest rates (shoutout US Treasury bonds). But depreciation threatens the dollar's Superman status. Some reasons why it's happening:

  • Fed money printer: The Fed has been blasting out dollars to inject back into the economy. More dollars = less demand for dollars = less valuable dollars.
  • Instability: An out-of-control pandemic, shrinking GDP, and political instability have affected confidence in the dollar. Oh, and the national debt is at a massive $27T.

Every dollar has two sides... If the US was a store, it would have a "discount" sign out front. Depreciation makes American goods cheaper for foreigners. That drives up demand for American products and stocks, which drives up stock market prices. If the dollar weakens long-term though, that could mean higher inflation, higher interest rates, higher taxes, and less global power for the US. China wouldn't mind snagging the dollar's Superman cape.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Ride: Uber and Lyft won't be shutting down in California — just hours before the expected shutdown, a judge granted them a reprieve that delays the AB5 order.
  • Sharebnb: Airbnb filed confidential IPO paperwork with the SEC. It also banned parties at all its listings (apparently 17+ people = party).
  • Dashing: DoorDash launches grocery delivery powered by its delivery platform DoorDashDrive — chains like Walmart already use it to power their own delivery.
  • Electrify: GE inks a $1.2B deal with Iraq to power up its electricity infrastructure and manage its power plants.
  • Testy: Delta partners with CVS to accelerate rapid COVID-19 testing for employees — global air travel is down 85% from last year.
  • Babaganoush: Alibaba's quarterly profit more than doubled from a year ago — the Chinese ecommerce giant brought home nearly $7B.

Friday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Alibaba

ID: 1308524

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.