Friday Jul.02, 2021

📱 TikTok does long Toks

When the CBD kombucha LLC gets approved [10'000 Hours via GettyImages]
When the CBD kombucha LLC gets approved [10'000 Hours via GettyImages]

Hey Snackers,

Some fun trivia as you fire up the BBQ: 245 years ago today, the USA declared independence from the British. But we're celebrating on Sunday because the Declaration of Independence was officially approved on the 4th.

Stocks jumped to records again yesterday as jobless claims hit a new pandemic low. Meanwhile, the US won support from 130 countries in pushing for a global minimum corporate tax rate.

BTW: The stock market is closed on Monday for (extended) Fourth of July, so we'll be back in your inbox on Tuesday 😉

Toker

TikTok is rolling out longer videos — but the real story is its Chinese sister Douyin

"Say So," the full version... Well, almost. TikTok is rolling out three-minute videos for everyone, a boost from the current one-minute limit. That means you could learn the full lyrics of viral songs, instead of half a chorus. It also means that the nature of TikTok — and its bite-sized content — could change.

  • 24.5 hours: How long the average US TikToker spends on the app each month — over 30 years, that would amount to nearly a full year of life scrolling the Tok (#womp).
  • 20 hours: How long US users spends on YouTube each month. YT has biased its algorithm toward viewer retention. Read: longer vids.
  • If longer videos lead to higher usage, TikTok could tweak its addicting algorithm to promote long clips.

While vids get longer... the wallet is getting fatter. TikTok's Chinese owner ByteDance saw sales more than double last year to $34B, according to WSJ — nearly 14X Snap's annual revenue.

  • Even wilder stat: Last year, ByteDance reportedly had 1.9B monthly users across its platforms, which include TikTok and Douyin, the Chinese TikTok.
  • Douyin = the original, non-international version of TikTok used by Chinese nationals. Same branding, same parent, separate content — censored by the Chinese gov't.

ByteDance has the "two worlds" advantage... That could be its biggest competitive edge. Nearly one in four people on Earth use a ByteDance app — that puts it on par with Facebook and YouTube, and far past Snap and Twitter. Meanwhile: Facebook, YouTube, Snap, and Twitter are all banned in China. Because these platforms aren't censored by China, they're closed off from the world's most populous country, limiting their growth. With TikTok and Douyin, ByteDance has the best of both worlds.

Kombucha

LegalZoom jumps after IPO: the DIY legal service is riding high on the business boom

Legally Zoomed... to the public market. When you need legal help, you either a) do hours of Googling, or b) beg your friend to FaceTime with their lawyer mom — anything to avoid paying $500/hour. LegalZoom tries to fix that by offering legal services online. Think: DIY legal documents and e-consultations. You fill out some questions, and LZ whips up completed legal docs. On Wednesday, the 20-year-old company whipped up an IPO:

  • LegalZoom shares soared 35% from their IPO price on their first trading day, giving it a $7B+ market cap.
  • 8%: LZ's CEO says that only 8% of legal services are delivered online, creating a big opportunity for online legal providers. Legal services market = ~$50B opp.

"Call my e-lawyer... I need to LLC my CBD kombucha startup." 2020 was the best year on record for new business creation, and applications for new businesses have continued to soar this year. LegalZoom reaped the benefits of all those business apps:

  • Last year, 10% of new LLCs (limited liability companies) and 5% of new corporations in the US were formed through LegalZoom. LZ's sales soared to nearly half a billion.

LZ is a piggyback stock... to the Creator Economy. In September, WSJ reported that Americans were starting businesses at the fastest rate since 2007. And it's not just brick-and-mortar stores. During the pandemic, Americans created new businesses from Etsy shops, online fitness services, apps, and podcasts. And those creators needed legal docs to seal the deal.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Vax: J&J's Covid vaccine showed promising preliminary signs of protecting against the Delta variant that's spreading across the globe.
  • Glazed: Krispy Kreme shares jumped 23% yesterday after the company went public (again) via IDO — Initial Donut Offering.
  • Vroom: US car sales are continuing their hot streak, but could slow as dealers face a lack of inventory.
  • Awk: Virgin Galactic founder Richard Branson is now embarking on a space flight just days before Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin space trip (#OutSpaced).
  • Taxed: A NY jury has reportedly indicted the Trump Organization and its CFO with tax-related crimes, according to WSJ.
  • Gassy: Oil prices surged to a multi-month high while OPEC met to discuss rising demand.

Friday

  • The June unemployment rate drops

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Snap

ID: 1708063

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Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.

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Markets

Stock market gains for 2024 cut by more than half

All of the sudden, the stock market seems to be running out of steam.

There’s no big mystery here. War in the Mideast has pushed up oil prices, which will help keep inflation elevated. And annoyingly high price increases in March have already pushed the June Fed rate cuts the market was banking on farther into the uncertain future.

All that’s added up to higher interest rates and lower stock prices.

Tech
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AI needs so much electricity that tech companies are getting into the energy business

To accommodate tech companies’ pivots to artificial intelligence, tech companies are increasingly investing in ways to power AI’s immense electricity needs.

Most recently, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman invested in Exowatt, a company using solar power to feed data centers, according to the Wall Street Journal.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

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