Cure

Markets aren't healed by the President's speech or the Fed's $1.5T stimulus medicine

Snacks / Thursday, March 12, 2020
"_That wasn't the right injection!_ "
"_That wasn't the right injection!_ "

Like Advil for Strep throat... On Wednesday, the President announced a new travel ban and proposed $50B of new loans for small and medium businesses struggling from the effects of the Coronavirus. Then yesterday America's Central bank announced something 30x bigger — $1.5T of fresh loans for financial institutions that need it. Markets seemingly rejected the stimulus pill, hammering stocks down another 10% Thursday — that's the Dow's worst day since 1987.

  • The Fed's goal is to ease the symptoms of coronavirus-plunged markets (we're in a bear market now) and to increase borrowing & spending.
  • But that's exactly the problem: The market's downfall is just a symptom of the underlying illness, which is coronavirus. This is like the gov prescribing $1.5T worth of Advil for an illness that can only be cured through antivirals — treating a symptom (fever), not the cause (virus).
  • Government spending and credit relief worked in '08 and '09 when the economy was actually sick from a credit crisis. This time seems to be different.

Pouring money into a party no one wants to attend... The fundamental issue is that people aren't spending money — the spread of COVID-19 is keeping the world at home, which is like economic paralysis. The stimulus pill isn't enough to get people to a party they think is dangerous... the only thing we think will actually help: containing the spread of coronavirus ASAP.

The market's cure lies in the root of the illness... Public health efforts toward preventing COVID-19's spread can get to it. The gov's ban on flights from Europe takes aim in that direction. South Korea took swift action on its outbreak, and its rate of infection has dropped significantly:

  • It's testing 20K people per day (just a total of 10K Americans have been tested so far) and they treat infected people for free — They're also tracking patients through apps (little creepy). But it's resulted in an impressively low 67 deaths out of 8K cases and 222K tests, as of Thursday.
  • Italy's outbreak happened around the same time, but it now has over 1K deaths out of 15K cases and 73K tests.

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