Wednesday Aug.25, 2021

🛍 TikTok Shopping has landed

_"Hold on, let me shop this Tok" [Nick David/Stone via GettyImages]_
_"Hold on, let me shop this Tok" [Nick David/Stone via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Remember when the public was asked to help name a new research ship, and the internet chose "Boaty McBoatface"? The meme lives on: Boaty McBoatface is now an NFT.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq index crossed 15K for the first time yesterday, as investors reacted to strong corporate earnings.

TikShop

Tap-to-buy mania: TikTok launches Shopping, and Insta drops Shop ads

Bought it on Insta... The ads know you so well. Two big developments dropped this week in the world of "social commerce" — aka: shopping through social media. TikTok is testing "TikTok Shopping" tabs in North America and the UK through an expanded partnership with ecomm platform Shopify. Meanwhile, Instagram is launching advertising on its Shop feature globally.

  • Instagram Shop, which launched last year, lets businesses set up digital storefronts on their pages. In some cases, you can pay directly through Insta with Facebook Pay. FB gets a small fee per purchase.
  • TikTok Shopping: Should've been TikShop (TokShop?). Shopify merchants with a "TikTok For Business" account can add a “Shopping” tab to their profiles and create mini-storefronts. Kylie Cosmetics will be an early adopter. But shopping takes place in the merchant's Shopify-powered site.

"Link in bio"... So 2020. US social commerce sales are expected to exceed $35B this year, up 36% from 2020. New shopping features from TikTok and Insta are fuel for the creator economy, which relies on affiliate sponsorships. TikTok Shopping will give Shopify merchants — and their influencer partners — the ability to tag products in their videos. Instead of just posing next to a bottle of protein powder, you can also link it.

Social commerce = the friction-killer... from discovery to checkout. Our purchasing decisions are often influenced by social media — remove the friction, and ads become even more effective. You spot pleather boots in a post and buy them directly through Insta, instead of entering a Google rabbit hole. That seamlessness is extra-valuable for advertisers, which means social giants can charge even more for ads. That's why Twitter, Pinterest, and Snap are also doubling down on shopping features – think: branded makeup filters on Snap.

Un-brand

Walmart opens its delivery network to mom-and-pop shops — because un-branding can be big business

Hold on to your cupcakes and car mufflers… There’s a new last-mile delivery service in town. Walmart is opening up its delivery network to outside retailers with a new program called GoLocal. The deets:

  • Retailers won’t need to sell in Walmart’s marketplace to use GoLocal, so even small shops can deliver products from store to customer. And don't expect those giant Walmart trucks: GoLocal is un-branded.
  • Only Walmart workers will fulfill GoLocal deliveries — unlike existing Walmart delivery, which also uses third-parties like FedEx, Doordash, and Uber.

Racing for the last mile... The same-day delivery market is expected to triple between 2020 and 2026. Amazon set the standard: Prime same- and one-day shipping was available for 72% of Americans in 2019. But Walmart has invested heavily in its same-day Express Delivery in the past three years. It now covers 70% of the US population. Here’s how the mega retailers compare:

  • Similar most of the way: Walmart and Amazon both operate massive ecommerce sites and shipping networks, and Amazon’s slowly expanding into IRL stores, where Walmart has long thrived.
  • Different for the last mile: Walmart’s doubling down on last-mile delivery. But Amazon’s going the opposite direction — it shut down its delivery platform for retailers in 2020 and prioritized warehousing instead.

“Un-branding” can be big business... Corporate giants can use their massive footprints to help other businesses scale — and profit in the process. With its white-labeled delivery service, Walmart — the second biggest US ecomm retailer — will have a new revenue stream. Other big businesses also sell unbranded services B2B: Target sells delivery tools to 120 retailers, Zoom sells its video-conferencing tech to other apps, and DoorDash sells its backend platform to stores that want delivery services.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Trillions: House Dems passed a $3.5T budget resolution and advanced the $1T bipartisan infrastructure bill after breaking a stalemate.
  • Export: Delta variant outbreaks in Vietnam and other Asian countries with low vaccination rates are causing production shutdowns that affect global trade.
  • Home: Airbnb plans to temporarily house 20K Afghan refugees in properties listed on its platform, as the Taliban's fast takeover wreaks havoc.
  • Stacks: Samsung plans to spend a whopping $205B on chip manufacturing and Covid vaccine production over the next three years.
  • Racks: Urban Outfitters posted record second-quarter earnings as shoppers return to racks. Nordstrom beat estimates, but was still below 2019 levels.

Wednesday

  • Earnings expected from Salesforce, Royal Bank of Canada, Autodesk, Ulta Beauty, Dick’s Sporting Goods, and Zuora

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Shopify, Walmart, Amazon, Uber, Snap, and Twitter

ID: 1807724

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Latest Stories

Business

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
3.07¢

The cost of producing the US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, that means that Uncle Sam loses more than two cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th-straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

Tech

Meta’s not telling where it got its AI training data

Today Meta unleashed its ChatGPT competitor, Meta AI, across its apps and as a standalone. The company boasts that it is running on its latest, greatest AI model, Llama 3, which was trained on “data of the highest quality”! A dataset seven times larger than Llama2! And includes 4 times more code!

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

Today’s earnings: Who’s making money edition

Here are some some notable numbers out this morning, as earnings season gathers steam. Thursday’s main event will be Netflix after the close of trading. (Keep an eye on its advertising business.) But until then...

7.13%

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is back above 7%, according to weekly numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the highest level in four months. High borrowing costs are creating havoc for would-be buyers, as affordability lingers at the low levels not seen consistently since the late 1980s.

Business

Amazon’s spy ops on rivals: shell companies, printed docs, and a fake Japanese streetwear brand

Some companies check out rivals’ websites, stores and public filings to stay abreast of the competition. Amazon made its own fake shell company and brands, transacted hundreds of thousands of dollars per year undercover on competitors’ platforms, and kept its intel operation a secret for nearly a decade even from others at Amazon, according to a fascinating investigation by the Wall Street Journal.

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

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Crypto
Jack Morse
4/17/24

Worldcoin pivots to the blockchain… with a 'humans only' discount

Worldcoin, the “proof of personhood” crypto project launched by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, said it plans to launch its own ethereum layer-2 (L2) blockchain dubbed World Chain. The pitch: a blockchain where it’s both easier and cheaper for people to transact than bots.

Worldcoin has made waves for its iris-scanning metallic orb that promises a future where people can mathematically prove they’re real humans and not AI bots.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

Business

Smooth sailing? Not for superyachts

Sales of the luxury boats sank 17% last year. Meanwhile, Super-SUPER yachts (over 650 feet long) took the biggest sales dip, falling around 40%. Part of the problem: a pandemic-era backlog has led to a three- to four-year waitlist for new yacht orders. Meanwhile Russian oligarchs — former MVP customers — are largely out of the boat-buying business due to sanctions.

Dr Martens shares have been stomped

American sales of Docs have dropped