Wednesday Aug.25, 2021

🛍 TikTok Shopping has landed

_"Hold on, let me shop this Tok" [Nick David/Stone via GettyImages]_
_"Hold on, let me shop this Tok" [Nick David/Stone via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Remember when the public was asked to help name a new research ship, and the internet chose "Boaty McBoatface"? The meme lives on: Boaty McBoatface is now an NFT.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq index crossed 15K for the first time yesterday, as investors reacted to strong corporate earnings.

TikShop

Tap-to-buy mania: TikTok launches Shopping, and Insta drops Shop ads

Bought it on Insta... The ads know you so well. Two big developments dropped this week in the world of "social commerce" — aka: shopping through social media. TikTok is testing "TikTok Shopping" tabs in North America and the UK through an expanded partnership with ecomm platform Shopify. Meanwhile, Instagram is launching advertising on its Shop feature globally.

  • Instagram Shop, which launched last year, lets businesses set up digital storefronts on their pages. In some cases, you can pay directly through Insta with Facebook Pay. FB gets a small fee per purchase.
  • TikTok Shopping: Should've been TikShop (TokShop?). Shopify merchants with a "TikTok For Business" account can add a “Shopping” tab to their profiles and create mini-storefronts. Kylie Cosmetics will be an early adopter. But shopping takes place in the merchant's Shopify-powered site.

"Link in bio"... So 2020. US social commerce sales are expected to exceed $35B this year, up 36% from 2020. New shopping features from TikTok and Insta are fuel for the creator economy, which relies on affiliate sponsorships. TikTok Shopping will give Shopify merchants — and their influencer partners — the ability to tag products in their videos. Instead of just posing next to a bottle of protein powder, you can also link it.

Social commerce = the friction-killer... from discovery to checkout. Our purchasing decisions are often influenced by social media — remove the friction, and ads become even more effective. You spot pleather boots in a post and buy them directly through Insta, instead of entering a Google rabbit hole. That seamlessness is extra-valuable for advertisers, which means social giants can charge even more for ads. That's why Twitter, Pinterest, and Snap are also doubling down on shopping features – think: branded makeup filters on Snap.

Un-brand

Walmart opens its delivery network to mom-and-pop shops — because un-branding can be big business

Hold on to your cupcakes and car mufflers… There’s a new last-mile delivery service in town. Walmart is opening up its delivery network to outside retailers with a new program called GoLocal. The deets:

  • Retailers won’t need to sell in Walmart’s marketplace to use GoLocal, so even small shops can deliver products from store to customer. And don't expect those giant Walmart trucks: GoLocal is un-branded.
  • Only Walmart workers will fulfill GoLocal deliveries — unlike existing Walmart delivery, which also uses third-parties like FedEx, Doordash, and Uber.

Racing for the last mile... The same-day delivery market is expected to triple between 2020 and 2026. Amazon set the standard: Prime same- and one-day shipping was available for 72% of Americans in 2019. But Walmart has invested heavily in its same-day Express Delivery in the past three years. It now covers 70% of the US population. Here’s how the mega retailers compare:

  • Similar most of the way: Walmart and Amazon both operate massive ecommerce sites and shipping networks, and Amazon’s slowly expanding into IRL stores, where Walmart has long thrived.
  • Different for the last mile: Walmart’s doubling down on last-mile delivery. But Amazon’s going the opposite direction — it shut down its delivery platform for retailers in 2020 and prioritized warehousing instead.

“Un-branding” can be big business... Corporate giants can use their massive footprints to help other businesses scale — and profit in the process. With its white-labeled delivery service, Walmart — the second biggest US ecomm retailer — will have a new revenue stream. Other big businesses also sell unbranded services B2B: Target sells delivery tools to 120 retailers, Zoom sells its video-conferencing tech to other apps, and DoorDash sells its backend platform to stores that want delivery services.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Trillions: House Dems passed a $3.5T budget resolution and advanced the $1T bipartisan infrastructure bill after breaking a stalemate.
  • Export: Delta variant outbreaks in Vietnam and other Asian countries with low vaccination rates are causing production shutdowns that affect global trade.
  • Home: Airbnb plans to temporarily house 20K Afghan refugees in properties listed on its platform, as the Taliban's fast takeover wreaks havoc.
  • Stacks: Samsung plans to spend a whopping $205B on chip manufacturing and Covid vaccine production over the next three years.
  • Racks: Urban Outfitters posted record second-quarter earnings as shoppers return to racks. Nordstrom beat estimates, but was still below 2019 levels.

Wednesday

  • Earnings expected from Salesforce, Royal Bank of Canada, Autodesk, Ulta Beauty, Dick’s Sporting Goods, and Zuora

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Shopify, Walmart, Amazon, Uber, Snap, and Twitter

ID: 1807724

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Latest Stories

$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business
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Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales